School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 10 of 16
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableAnalysis of Trapped Small-Scale Internal Gravity Waves Automatically Detected in Satellite Imagery(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2024-02-28)Abstract In water vapor‐sensitive satellite imagery, small‐scale wave‐like perturbations of brightness temperature can be attributed to the presence of trapped internal waves in the troposphere. We present a method for detecting these local perturbations with wavelengths of about 10 km and apply it to imagery from the Advanced Baseline Imager on board the geostationary satellite GOES‐16. The algorithm allows us to analyze 4 years of sub‐hourly data in the southern part of the tropical eastern Pacific, where only a relatively low amount of medium and high clouds obscures the scene. By combining a measure of wave activity/trapping with ERA5 reanalysis data, we connect the occurrence of trapping with the presence of an increased upper‐tropospheric wind shear. This connection is more evident during December, January and February, when upper‐tropospheric jets are more likely. Our work supports existing case and model studies and is a step forward in the statistical and automated analysis of trapped small‐scale internal waves in the atmosphere.
-
ItemObjectively Assessing Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Organization in an Operational Convection-Permitting Model(American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-01)The realism of convective organization in operational convection-permitting model simulations is objectively assessed, with a particular focus on the mesoscale aspects, such as convective mode. A tracking and classification algorithm is applied to observed radar reflectivity and simulated radar reflectivity from the operational ACCESS-C convection-permitting forecast domain over northern Australia between October 2020 and May 2022, and the characteristics of real and simulated convective organization are compared. Mesoscale convective systems from the operational forecast model are approximately twice as likely to be oriented parallel to the ambient wind and ambient wind shear than those observed by radar, indicating a bias toward the “training line” systems typically associated with more extreme rainfall. During highly humid active monsoon conditions, simulated convective systems have larger ground-relative speeds than systems observed in radar. Although there is less than 5% difference between the ratios of simulated and observed trailing, leading and parallel stratiform system observations, significant differences exist in other wind shear–based classifications. For instance, in absolute terms, simulated systems are 10%–35% less likely to be upshear tilted, and 15%–30% less likely to be downshear propagating than observed systems, suggesting errors in simulated cold pool characteristics. Significance Statement: Remarkable progress has been made simulating thunderstorms in operational weather forecasting computer models. While some details of individual storm clouds may be unrealistic, how these storm clouds self-organize, i.e., cluster and regenerate, can be explicitly simulated, with this organization often appearing realistic. However, assessing the realism of this organization in an objective, systematic way has proven challenging. Here we assess organized convection in Australia’s current high-resolution weather prediction model. In some respects, simulated storm clouds organize realistically. High-altitude icy cloud mostly trails behind groups of storm clouds in both simulations and reality. In other respects, organization is unrealistic. Simulated storm clouds are twice as likely to orient along the mean wind direction than in reality, likely contributing to extreme rainfall biases.
-
ItemDiurnally Forced Tropical Gravity Waves under Varying Stability(American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-01)Diurnal processes play a primary role in tropical weather. A leading hypothesis is that atmospheric gravity waves diurnally forced near coastlines propagate both offshore and inland, encouraging convection as they do so. In this study we extend the linear analytic theory of diurnally forced gravity waves, allowing for discontinuities in stability and for linear changes in stability over a finite-depth “transition layer.” As an illustrative example, we first consider the response to a commonly studied heating function emulating diurnally oscillating coastal temperature gradients, with a low-level stability change between the boundary layer and troposphere. Gravity wave rays resembling the upper branches of “Saint Andrew’s cross” are forced along the coastline at the surface, with the stability changes inducing reflection, refraction, and ducting of the individual waves comprising the rays, with analogous behavior evident in the rays themselves. Refraction occurs smoothly in the transition-layer solution, with substantially less reflection than in the discontinuous solution. Second, we consider a new heating function which emulates an upper-level convective heating diurnal cycle, and consider stability changes associated with the tropical tropopause. Reflection, refraction, and ducting again occur, with the lower branches of Saint Andrew’s cross now evident. We compare these solutions to observations taken during the Years of the Maritime Continent field campaign, noting better qualitative agreement with the transition-layer solution than the discontinuous solution, suggesting the tropopause is an even weaker gravity wave reflector than previously thought. Significance Statement: This study extends our theoretical understanding of how forced atmospheric gravity waves change with atmospheric structure. Gravity wave behavior depends on atmospheric stability: how much the atmosphere resists vertical displacements of air. Where stability changes, waves reflect and refract, analogously to when light passes from water to air. Our study presents new mathematical tools for understanding this reflection and refraction, demonstrating reflection is substantially weaker when stability increases over “transition layers,” than when stability increases suddenly. Our results suggest the tropical tropopause reflects less gravity wave energy than previously thought, with potential design implications for weather and climate models, to be assessed in future work.
-
ItemLong-Term Observational Characteristics of Different Severe Convective Wind Types around Australia(AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2023-10)Abstract Regional understanding of severe surface winds produced by convective processes [severe convective winds (SCWs)] is important for decision-making in several areas of society, including weather forecasting and engineering design. Meteorological studies have demonstrated that SCWs can occur due to a number of different mesoscale and microscale processes, in a range of large-scale atmospheric environments. However, long-term observational studies of SCW characteristics often have not considered this diversity in physical processes, particularly in Australia. Here, a statistical clustering method is used to separate a large dataset of SCW events, measured by automatic weather stations around Australia, into three types, associated with strong background wind, steep lapse rate, and high moisture environments. These different types of SCWs are shown to have different seasonal and spatial variations in their occurrence, as well as different measured wind gust, lightning, and parent-storm characteristics. In addition, various convective diagnostics are tested in their ability to discriminate between measured SCW events and nonsevere events, with significant variations in skill between event types. Differences in environmental conditions and wind gust characteristics between event types suggests potentially different physical processes for SCW production. These findings are intended to improve regional understanding of severe wind characteristics, as well as environmental prediction of SCWs in weather and climate applications, by considering different event types. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to improve regional understanding of different types of severe wind events in Australia, specifically those associated with atmospheric convection. We did this by constructing a dataset of 413 severe convective wind events, using weather station and radar data within 20 regions around Australia. We then split those events into three different types, based on the environmental conditions that they occur within. We found that each event type tends to occur at different times of the year and in different regions, while also having different wind gust and lightning characteristics. In addition, the atmospheric conditions that are helpful for prediction of severe wind events differs between each type. These results are intended to be useful for prediction of severe wind events associated with convection and assessing their variability, characteristics, and impacts, in both weather forecasting and climate analysis.
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableTwo Quasi-Linear Convective Systems, Their Mesoscale Structure and Moisture Sources(AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2023-03)Abstract Over half of the total rainfall and more than 70% of heavy and extreme rainfall in the Melbourne, Australia, region occurs on days with linearly organized precipitation. These systems are typically convective in nature and frequently associated with cold fronts. It is useful to understand the processes that support extreme rainfall in organized convection, for prediction of both near-term and future extreme rainfall, and the topography and climate of Melbourne are different from many of the regions where QLCSs have been studied more extensively (e.g., the U. S. Great Plains region). On both 7 and 8 December 2010, a QLCS passed through the Melbourne region. Both QLCSs resembled classic systems on radar, but heavy rainfall was much more widespread on the second day. The goals of this work are to 1) understand the processes that drive these seemingly similar QLCSs; 2) explore the relationship between the convective inflow layer and moisture sources; and 3) to better understand the characteristics of rain bearing systems in the Melbourne region, which have received little attention to date. A convection-permitting WRF-ARW simulation captures both events. The mesoscale structure is different in each case, but generally is explainable by the existing theory. The development of a mesoscale downdraft, along with more moisture (and CAPE) over a deeper layer, contributed to higher rainfall totals on the second day. Low-level moisture in the QLCS region comes from the east, and parcel trajectories become increasingly westerly with height. On the second day some parcels originate in the tropics; these tend to have the most moisture. Significance Statement A lot of the rain that falls in Melbourne, Australia, occurs in storms that are grouped or “organized” in the shape of a line. Many studies have looked at how lines of storms work in other places in the world. In southeast Australia, only one study in the 1980s looked at observations of a line of storms. Since then, our understanding of storms and our ability to use computer models to simulate them has improved considerably. In this study we simulate two lines of storms that happened two days in a row. We found that even though they looked similar on weather radar, they had many differences including how air flows through the storm, the role of rain-cooled air, and where moisture comes from.
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableThe Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and Deep Convective Clouds Around Sumatra and the Associated MJO-Induced Variability During Austral Summer in Himawari-8(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2023-11-27)Abstract The effects of the diurnal cycle and large‐scale atmospheric disturbances dominate rainfall and cloud variability in the Maritime Continent. This study examines the modulation of the Austral Summer diurnal cycle by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) using cloud populations through precipitation and deep convective cloud derived from satellite measurements. Using Rainfall Potential Areas from Himawari‐8 Advanced Himawari Imager as a proxy for deep convection, our analysis shows that convective clouds are present ∼55% of the time over land in Sumatra during the afternoon and night. Cloud signatures reveal semi‐diurnal structures of deep convective clouds off the West Coast of Sumatra. In contrast, the East Coast exhibits explicit sea‐ward propagation patterns of deep convective controlled by the coastal effects around the Strait of Malacca and Java Sea, together with the influence of synchronized diurnal forcing between islands. We show that the MJO drives the enhanced convective phases, changing the cloud top type distribution, moisture convergence, and moisture transport over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The cold cloud area also increases during the MJO active phases, which is linked to frequent deep convective cloud development near the mountain ranges of Sumatra and the adjacent ocean. The analyses of cloud variations based on the rainfall potential areas and cloud top type provide evidence of the effects of convective processes on the diurnal cycle of ice and water vapor distribution in the troposphere.
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableAtmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation(WILEY, 2024-01)Abstract Extended warning of above‐average and extreme precipitation is valuable to a wide range of stakeholders. However, the sporadic nature of precipitation makes it difficult to forecast skilfully beyond one week. Subseasonal forecasting is a growing area of science that aims to predict average weather conditions multiple weeks in advance using dynamical models. Building on recent work in this area, we test the hypothesis that using large‐scale horizontal moisture transport as a predictor for precipitation may increase the forecast skill of the above‐median and high‐precipitation weeks on subseasonal time‐scales. We analysed retrospective forecast (hindcast) sets from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's latest operational subseasonal‐to‐seasonal forecasting model, ACCESS‐S2, to compare the forecast skill of precipitation using integrated water vapour transport (IVT) as a proxy, compared to using precipitation forecasts directly. We show that ACCESS‐S2 precipitation generally produces more skilful forecasts, except over some regions where IVT could be a useful additional diagnostic for warning of heavy precipitation events.
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableA case study of a West Sumatra squall line using satellite observations(American Meteorological Society, 2023-02-01)A West Sumatra squall line occurred on 10 January 2016, with a clear offshore propagation of convection. Satellite-derived products from Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager and the Geostationary Cloud Algorithm Testbed Geocat are used to investigate the westward propagation of cloudiness from Sumatra to the Indian Ocean with a lifetime of 1.5 days. A convective mask based on deep convective cell detection and a cell-tracking algorithm are used to estimate the propagation speed of the cloud system. Two distinct mesoscale convective responses are identified: 1) a rapid development in South Sumatra is influenced by the convective environment over the Indian Ocean. The propagation speed is estimated to be ∼5 m s−1 within the first 200 km from the coast. This speed is consistent with density currents. In contrast, 2) the coupling to the inertia–gravity wave is only evident for the northwest of Sumatra with speeds of ∼12 m s−1. The analysis of brightness temperature from the 10.4-μm spectral band and cloud-top temperature showed that the lifetime of the squall line is approximately 30 h with a propagating distance of ∼1000 km. Retrieved cloud properties and tracking of the offshore propagation indicated that the cloud structure consisted of multiple types of cells, propagating as envelopes of convection, and revealed the influence of large-scale variability of the Indian Ocean. Filtered OLR anomalies, satellite-derived rainfall, moisture flux convergence, and background winds flow around Sumatra are used to explore the effects of Kelvin wave activity that likely influenced the lifetime of the squall line.
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableMultiscale Influences on Rainfall in Northeast Australia(American Meteorological Society, 2023-09-01)This study examines the multiscale modulation of mean and extreme rainfall in Northeast (NE) Australia under different background modes of variability, which is a new aspect given the high-resolution and long-term observational datasets. Daily rainfall probability is significantly modified by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and its influence varies with the seasons and is associated with atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall generally decreases during El Niño and increases during La Niña years; however, there is a notable spatial nuance to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-associated extreme rainfall, with some locations showing the opposite precipitation response to the typical ENSO–rainfall relationship. Despite more precipitation overall in La Niña years, the mean and extreme precipitation responses to the MJO appear to be stronger and more often statistically significant during El Niño compared to La Niña periods. The impact of ENSO on the MJO–rainfall relationship is stronger than the variation of the MJO itself with ENSO, and likely reflects a change in the MJO modulation of rain-bearing atmospheric processes. During El Niño periods, diurnal rainfall amplitude is generally stronger in the central and southern subtropical parts of the study area than during La Niña periods, while the opposite tendency occurs in the northern tropical part. The diurnal cycle of both mean and extreme precipitation is amplified during suppressed convection phases compared to enhanced convection phases of the MJO. In general, the peak time of diurnal cycle does not change with MJO regimes, but there are some notable differences in rainfall propagation between enhanced and suppressed MJO phases.
-
ItemNo Preview AvailableTropical, Subtropical, and Extratropical Atmospheric Rivers in the Australian Region(AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2022-05)Abstract Studies of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Australia have, so far, only focused on northwest cloudband–type weather systems. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of AR climatology and impacts over Australia that includes not only northwesterly systems, but easterly and extratropical ARs also. We quantify the impact of ARs on mean and extreme rainfall including assessing how the origin location of ARs can alter their precipitation outcomes. We found a strong relationship between ARs and extreme rainfall in the agriculturally significant Murray–Daring basin region. We test the hypothesis that the tropical and subtropical originating ARs we observe in Australasia differ from canonical extratropical ARs by examining the vertical structure of ARs grouped by origin location. We found that in the moisture abundant tropics and subtropics, wind speed drives the intensity of ARs, while in the extratropics, the strength of an AR is largely determined by moisture availability. Finally, we examine the modulation of AR frequency by different climate modes. We find weak (but occasionally significant) correlations between ARs frequency and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the southern annular mode. However, there is a stronger relationship between the phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation and tropical AR frequency, which is an avenue for potential skill in forecasting ARs on subseasonal time scales.