School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises( 2020)Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socio-economic changes (e.g., reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g., evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for: informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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ItemComparison of formaldehyde tropospheric columns in Australia and New Zealand using MAX-DOAS, FTIR and TROPOMI( 2020-07-03)Abstract. South-eastern Australia has been identified by modelling studies as a hotspot of biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, however long term observational VOC studies are lacking in this region. Here, two and a half years of MAX-DOAS formaldehyde (HCHO) measurements in Australasia are presented, from Broadmeadows in northern Melbourne, Australia and from Lauder, a rural site in the South Island of New Zealand. Across the measurement period from December 2016 to November 2019, the mean formaldehyde column measured by the MAX-DOAS at Lauder was 2.50 ± 0.61 × 1014 molec cm−2 and at Broadmeadows was 5.40 ± 1.59 × 1015 molec cm−2. In both locations the seasonal cycle showed a pronounced peak in Austral summer (DJF) consistent with temperature-dependent formaldehyde production from biogenic precursor gases. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle at Lauder was 0.7 × 1015 molec cm−2 while it was 2.0 × 1015 molec cm−2 at Broadmeadows. The Lauder MAX-DOAS HCHO measurements are compared with 27 months of co-located fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) observations. The seasonal variation of Lauder MAX-DOAS HCHO, smoothed by the FTIR averaging kernels, correlated strongly with the FTIR measurements, with linear regression slope of 0.91 and R2 of 0.81 for monthly averaged formaldehyde partial columns. In addition to ground-based observations, a clear way to address the VOC measurement gap in areas such as Australasia is with satellite measurements. Here we demonstrate that the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) can be used to distinguish formaldehyde hotspots in forested and agricultural regions of south-eastern Australia. The MAX-DOAS measurements are also compared to TROPOMI HCHO vertical columns at Lauder and Melbourne; very strong monthly average agreement is found for Melbourne (regression slope of 0.61, R2 of 0.95) and a strong agreement is found at Lauder (regression slope of 0.73, R2 of 0.61) for MAX-DOAS vs. TROPOMI between May 2018 and November 2019. This study, the first long term satellite comparison study using MAX-DOAS in the southern hemisphere, highlights the improvement offered by TROPOMI's high resolution over previous satellite products and provides the groundwork for future studies using ground based and satellite DOAS for studying VOCs in Australasia.
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ItemCoral reef-derived dimethyl sulfide and the climatic impact of the loss of coral reefs( 2020-10-27)Abstract. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a naturally occurring aerosol precursor gas which plays an important role in the global sulfur budget, aerosol formation and climate. While DMS is produced predominantly by phytoplankton, recent observational literature has suggested that corals and their symbionts produce a comparable amount of DMS, which is unaccounted for in models. It has further been hypothesised that the coral reef source of DMS may modulate regional climate. This hypothesis presents a particular concern given the current threat to coral reefs under anthropogenic climate change. In this paper, a global climate model with online chemistry and aerosol is used to explore the influence of coral reef-derived DMS on atmospheric composition and climate. A simple representation of coral reef-derived DMS is developed and added to a common DMS surface water climatology, resulting in an additional DMS flux of 0.3 Tg year−1 S, or 1.7 % of the global flux. By comparing the differences between both nudged and free running ensemble simulations with and without coral reef-derived DMS, the influence of coral reef-derived DMS on regional climate is quantified. In the Maritime Continent-Australian region, where the highest density of coral reefs exist, a small decrease in nucleation and Aitken mode aerosol number concentration and mass is found when coral reef DMS emissions are removed from the system. However, these small responses are found to have no robust effect on regional climate via direct and indirect aerosol effects. This work emphasises the complexities of the aerosol-climate system and the limitations of current modelling capabilities are highlighted, in particular surrounding convective responses to changes in aerosol. In conclusion we find no robust evidence that coral reef-derived DMS influences global and regional climate.
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ItemSurface-circulation change in the Southern Ocean across the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum: inferences from dinoflagellate cysts and biomarker paleothermometry(Copernicus Publications, 2020-09-01)Global climate cooled from the early Eocene hothouse (~ 52–50 Ma) to the latest Eocene (~ 34 Ma). At the same time, the tectonic evolution of the Southern Ocean was characterized by the opening and deepening of circum-Antarctic gateways, which affected both surface- and deep-ocean circulation. The Tasman Gateway played a key role in regulating ocean throughflow between Australia and Antarctica. Southern Ocean surface currents through and around the Tasman Gateway have left recognizable tracers in the spatiotemporal distribution of plankton fossils, including organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts. This spatiotemporal distribution depends on physico-chemical properties of the water masses in which these organisms thrived. The degree to which the geographic path of surface currents (primarily controlled by tectonism) or their physico-chemical properties (significantly impacted by climate) have controlled the composition of the fossil assemblages has, however, remained unclear. In fact, it is yet poorly understood to what extent oceanographic response as a whole was dictated by climate change, independent of tectonics-induced oceanographic changes that operate on longer time scales. To disentangle the effects of tectonism and climate in the southwest Pacific Ocean, we target a climatic deviation from the long-term Eocene cooling trend, a 500 thousand year long global warming phase termed the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~ 40 Ma). The MECO warming is unrelated to regional tectonism, and thus provides a test case to investigate the oceans physiochemical response to climate change only. We reconstruct changes in surface-water circulation and temperature in and around the Tasman Gateway during the MECO through new palynological and organic geochemical records from the central Tasman Gateway (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1170), the Otway Basin (southeastern Australia) and the Hampden Section (New Zealand). Our results confirm that dinocyst communities track tectonically driven circulation patterns, yet the variability within these communities can be driven by superimposed temperature change. Together with published results from the east of the Tasman Gateway, our results suggest that as surface-ocean temperatures rose, the East Australian Current extended further southward during the peak of MECO warmth. Simultaneous with high sea-surface temperatures in the Tasman Gateway area, pollen assemblages indicate warm temperate rainforests with paratropical elements along the southeastern margin of Australia. Finally, based on new age constraints we suggest that a regional southeast Australian transgression might have been caused by sea-level rise during MECO.