School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation(COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2024-03-15)Abstract. In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting of insurance premiums, and emergency response planning. Under stationary assumptions, flood guidance and the methods used in design flood estimation are firmly established in practice and mature in their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, guidance is still in its infancy. Human-caused climate change is influencing factors that contribute to flood risk such as rainfall extremes and soil moisture, and there is a need for updated flood guidance. However, a barrier to updating flood guidance is the translation of the science into practical application. For example, most science pertaining to historical changes to flood risk focuses on examining trends in annual maximum flood events or the application of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Although this science is valuable, in practice, design flood estimation focuses on exceedance probabilities much rarer than annual maximum events, such as the 1 % annual exceedance probability event or even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where there are few to no observations of streamflow. Here, we perform a systematic review to summarize the state-of-the-art understanding of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation in the Australian context, while also drawing on international literature. In addition, a meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies are combined, is conducted for extreme rainfall to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes. This information is described in the context of contemporary design flood estimation practice to facilitate the inclusion of climate science into design flood estimation practice.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableRainforest response to glacial terminations before and after human arrival in Lutruwita (Tasmania)(Elsevier BV, 2024-04-01)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableHistorical Agrarian Change and its Connections to Contemporary Agricultural Extension in Northwest Cambodia(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2024-01-02)This historical overview uses a political ecology approach to examine agricultural change over time in Northwest Cambodia. It focuses on key historical periods, actors, and processes that continue to shape power, land, and farming relations in the region, emphasizing the relevance of this history for contemporary investments in agricultural extension services and research as part of the Zero Hunger by 2030 policy agenda for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Agricultural extension projects need to engage critically with historically complex and dynamic power, land, and farming relations – not only as the basis of social relations but as central to understanding the contemporary manifestation of farmer decision making and practice. Initiatives such as the SDGs replicate long histories of externally driven power-relations that orient benefits from changed practices towards elites in urban centers or distant global actors. Efforts to realize zero hunger by 2030 are endangered by neglect for the path-dependency of powerland-farming relations, which stretch from the past into the present to structure farmer decision making and practices.
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ItemPrecarity, illicit markets, and the 'mystery' of prices(Taylor and Francis Group, 2023)Stand-alone price analysis of illicit opium and coca does not explain why smallholders turn to illicit crops for coping and survival. Under conditions of precarity, illicit crop markets can stimulate productivity. They generate returns that can tame crises and relieve pressures. To smallholders facing marginalisation, violence, and climate change – growing opium and coca, despite their illegality, can reduce or spread risks and provide more predictability. Thus, rather than fix on the ‘invisible hand’ of price theory, the focus should be on the ‘visible hand’ of political entrepreneurship, interdependent relationships, and the metrics of precarity. To do this, this paper retrospectively compares illicit crop prices before and after certain historical moments in Bolivia, Myanmar, Colombia, and Afghanistan.
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ItemCriminal entrepreneurs as pioneers, intermediaries, and arbitrageurs in borderland economies(ELSEVIER, 2021-03)Many discussions of mafia and criminal entrepreneurs typically focus on violence and illegality, and less on their possible roles in rural transformation, even when they are located in borderland economies linking the subsistence cultivators of illicit crops to regional and global markets. This paper assesses the life stories of drug lords, the Castaño brothers of Colombia and Roberto Suárez Gomez of Bolivia, to draw inferences into how such rural elites in the illicit drugs trade are not only specialists in crime but are also actors who regulate and manipulate, often coercively, access to land and resources, mobilise labour and shape its divisions, and promote certain forms of capital accumulation. This paper contends that a better understanding of the roles of these rural elites as pioneers for capital, intermediaries in commodity chains, and arbitrageurs between state and borderlands may provide ways of unpacking key challenges to peacebuilding and economic transformation in borderlands where illicit economies thrive.
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ItemThe paradox of illicit economies: survival, resilience, and the limits of development and drug policy orthodoxy(Taylor and Francis Group, 2020)The illicit drug crops opium and coca are conventionally regarded as sources of instability, an ‘evil’ that breeds fragility and violence. Fragile states are supposed to be most vulnerable to their production and consequent harms. Yet by looking into the local contexts of the world’s leading opium and coca producers – Afghanistan, Myanmar, Colombia and Bolivia – these illicit crops are found to also be sources of stability, even drivers of economic growth. They enable marginalized communities and territories abandoned by the state to be reinserted into national and global markets. Within so-called ‘fragile’ and conflict-affected areas are displaced and dispossessed households adopting innovative and unorthodox strategies for coping and survival in changing and insecure environments. This paper maps out an approach, useful for examining the resilience that has emerged amidst violence and uncertainty in illicit-crop-producing territories, and which can hopefully tackle the continuing disconnect between drugs and development policy.
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ItemBringing the forest back: Restoration priorities in Colombia(Wiley, 2024-04)Aim: Colombia has committed to ambitious forest restoration targets which include a 1 million ha Bonn Challenge commitment and 6.47–8.31 million ha (rehabilitation and restoration, respectively) under the National Restoration Plan. Determining where and how to implement programs to achieve these targets remains a significant challenge. Location: Colombia. Methods: We adopt a multi‐objective optimisation framework for restoration planning and apply it to Colombia. We explore cost‐effective solutions that leverage the potential for assisted natural regeneration benefits while accounting for opportunity and establishment costs of restoration and maximising biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation benefits. We explore four politically relevant restoration area‐based targets (1, 6, 6.47 and 8.31 million ha) and identify minimum cost, and suites of maximum benefit and cost‐effective solutions. Results: We identify solutions that simultaneously perform well across biodiversity and carbon objectives, despite trade‐offs between these objectives. We find that cost‐effective solutions can achieve on average 91.1%, 90.8%, 90.5% and 90.1% of maximum carbon benefit and 100% of the maximum biodiversity benefit while significantly reducing costs. On average, the cost‐effective solutions reduce the cost by 87.5%, 56.8%, 59.6% and 46.2% compared to the maximum benefit solutions considering one, six, 6.47 and 8.31 million ha restoration targets, respectively. Main Conclusions: Colombia has committed to bold restoration and conservation targets, such as those under the new 2030 Convention on Biological Diversity Global Biodiversity Framework. Strategic forest restoration planning will play an important role in achieving Colombia's biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation goals. We provide quantitative evidence to inform planning for environmentally and economically sensible restoration policy and practice in the country. Our framework and results can help guide Colombia towards meeting its ambitious forest restoration targets cost‐effectively.
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ItemA field work report on newly discovered and documented megalithic jar sites in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-12)Abstract Xieng Khouang and neighboring provinces in Central Laos are home to a vast megalithic landscape featuring large stone jars, discs, and imported boulders located in elevated positions. Sites were first noted in the late nineteenth century, with systematic recording commencing in the 1930s. Continuing on from the 2019 field survey by the Plain of Jars Archaeological Research Project, this paper presents the results of a 2020 survey across Xieng Khouang Province, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) which led to the documentation of 27 previously unreported megalithic sites, growing the Lao PDR Government database from 102 to 127 known jar sites, with 124 geo-located. In addition, a preliminary analysis of the known jar sites to date is conducted regarding distribution and jar characteristics providing a basis for further investigation.