Medicine (RMH) - Research Publications
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ItemPredictors of disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome(WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2015-05)OBJECTIVE: To assess demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment exposure predictors of time to 3 or 12-month confirmed disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We utilized the MSBase Incident Study (MSBasis), a prospective cohort study of outcome after CIS. Predictors of time to first 3 and 12-month confirmed expanded disability status scale worsening were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: About 1989 patients were analyzed, the largest seen-from-onset cohort reported to-date. A total of 391 patients had a first 3-month confirmed disability worsening event, of which 307 were sustained for 12 months. Older age at CIS onset (adjusted hazard ratio: aHR 1.17, 95% 1.06, 1.30), pyramidal (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13, 1.89) and ambulation (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34) system dysfunction, annualized relapse rate (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18, 1.22), and lower proportion of observation time on treatment were associated with 3-month confirmed worsening. Predictors of time to 12-month sustained worsening included pyramidal system dysfunction (Hazard ratio: aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.05, 1.83), and older age at CIS onset (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.31). Greater proportion of follow-up time exposed to treatment was associated with greater reductions in the rate of worsening. INTERPRETATION: This study provides class IV evidence for a strong protective effect of disease-modifying treatment to reduce disability worsening events in patients with CIS and early MS, and confirms age and pyramidal dysfunction at onset as risk factors.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableFingolimod after natalizumab and the risk of short-term relapse(LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS, 2014-04-08)OBJECTIVE: To determine early risk of relapse after switch from natalizumab to fingolimod; to compare the switch experience to that in patients switching from interferon-β/glatiramer acetate (IFN-β/GA) and those previously treatment naive; and to determine predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod. METHODS: Data were obtained from the MSBase Registry. Relapse rates (RRs) for each patient group were compared using adjusted negative binomial regression. Survival analyses coupled with adjusted Cox regression were used to model predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod. RESULTS: A total of 536 patients (natalizumab-fingolimod [n = 89]; IFN-β/GA-fingolimod [n = 350]; naive-fingolimod [n = 97]) were followed up for a median 10 months. In the natalizumab-fingolimod group, there was a small increase in RR on fingolimod (annualized RR [ARR] 0.38) relative to natalizumab (ARR 0.26; p = 0.002). RRs were generally low across all patient groups in the first 9 months on fingolimod (RR 0.001-0.13). However, 30% of patients with disease activity on natalizumab relapsed within the first 6 months on fingolimod. Independent predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod were the number of relapses in the prior 6 months (hazard ratio [HR] 1.59 per relapse; p = 0.002) and a gap in treatment of 2-4 months compared to no gap (HR 2.10; p = 0.041). CONCLUSIONS: RRs after switch to fingolimod were low in all patient groups. The strongest predictor of relapse on fingolimod was prior relapse activity. Based on our data, we recommend a maximum 2-month treatment gap for switches to fingolimod to decrease the hazard of relapse. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that RRs are not higher in patients with multiple sclerosis switching to fingolimod from natalizumab compared to those patients switching to fingolimod from other therapies.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableRisk of relapse phenotype recurrence in multiple sclerosis(SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2014-10)OBJECTIVES: The aim was to analyse risk of relapse phenotype recurrence in multiple sclerosis and to characterise the effect of demographic and clinical features on this phenotype. METHODS: Information about relapses was collected using MSBase, an international observational registry. Associations between relapse phenotypes and history of similar relapses or patient characteristics were tested with multivariable logistic regression models. Tendency of relapse phenotypes to recur sequentially was assessed with principal component analysis. RESULTS: Among 14,969 eligible patients (89,949 patient-years), 49,279 phenotypically characterised relapses were recorded. Visual and brainstem relapses occurred more frequently in early disease and in younger patients. Sensory relapses were more frequent in early or non-progressive disease. Pyramidal, sphincter and cerebellar relapses were more common in older patients and in progressive disease. Women presented more often with sensory or visual symptoms. Men were more prone to pyramidal, brainstem and cerebellar relapses. Importantly, relapse phenotype was predicted by the phenotypes of previous relapses. (OR = 1.8-5, p = 10(-14)). Sensory, visual and brainstem relapses showed better recovery than other relapse phenotypes. Relapse severity increased and the ability to recover decreased with age or more advanced disease. CONCLUSION: Relapse phenotype was associated with demographic and clinical characteristics, with phenotypic recurrence significantly more common than expected by chance.
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ItemThe Australian Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Immunotherapy Study: A Prospective, Multicentre Study of Drug Utilisation Using the MSBase Platform(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2013-03-19)OBJECTIVE: To prospectively characterise treatment persistence and predictors of treatment discontinuation in an Australian relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) population. METHODS: Tertiary MS treatment centres participating in the MSBase registry prospectively assessed treatment utilisation, persistence, predictors of treatment discontinuation and switch rates. Multivariable survival analyses were used to compare treatment persistence between drugs and to identify predictors of treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: 1113 RRMS patients were studied. Patients persisted on their first disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for a median of 2.5 years. Treatment persistence on GA was shorter than on all IFNβ products (p<0.03). Younger age at treatment initiation and higher EDSS were predictive of DMT discontinuation. Patients persisted on subsequent DMTs, for 2.3 years. Patients receiving natalizumab (NAT) as a subsequent DMT persisted longer on treatment than those on IFNβ or GA (p<0.000). The primary reason for treatment discontinuation for any drug class was poor tolerability. Annualised switch or cessation rates were 9.5-12.5% for individual IFNβ products, 11.6% for GA and 4.4% for NAT. CONCLUSION: This multicentre MS cohort study is the first to directly compare treatment persistence on IFNβ and GA to NAT. We report that treatment persistence in our Australian RRMS population is short, although patients receiving IFNβ as a first DMT persisted longer on treatment than those on GA. Additionally, patients receiving NAT as a subsequent DMT were more likely to persist on treatment than those switched to IFNβ or GA. EDSS and age at DMT initiation were predictive of DMT discontinuation. Treatment intolerance was the principal reason for treatment cessation.