Medicine (RMH) - Research Publications

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    Intratumoral presence of the genotoxic gut bacteria pks+ E. coli, Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum and their association with clinicopathological and molecular features of colorectal cancer
    Joo, JE ; Chu, YL ; Georgeson, P ; Walker, R ; Mahmood, K ; Clendenning, M ; Meyers, AL ; Como, J ; Joseland, S ; Preston, SG ; Diepenhorst, N ; Toner, J ; Ingle, DJ ; Sherry, NL ; Metz, A ; Lynch, BM ; Milne, RL ; Southey, MC ; Hopper, JL ; Win, AK ; Macrae, FA ; Winship, IM ; Rosty, C ; Jenkins, MA ; Buchanan, DD (Springer Nature, 2024)
    Background: This study aimed to investigate clinicopathological and molecular tumour features associated with intratumoral pks+ Escherichia coli (pks+E.coli+), pks+E.coli- (non-E.coli bacteria harbouring the pks island), Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) and Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum). Methods: We screened 1697 tumour-derived DNA samples from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry, Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and the ANGELS study using targeted PCR. Results: Pks+E.coli+ was associated with male sex (P < 0.01) and APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation (P = 0.03). The association between pks+E.coli+ and APC:c.835-8 A > G was specific to early-onset CRCs (diagnosed<45years, P = 0.02). The APC:c.835-A > G was not associated with pks+E.coli- (P = 0.36). F. nucleatum was associated with DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd), BRAF:c.1799T>A p.V600E mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype, proximal tumour location, and high levels of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (Ps < 0.01). In the stratified analysis by MMRd subgroups, F. nucleatum was associated with Lynch syndrome, MLH1 methylated and double MMR somatic mutated MMRd subgroups (Ps < 0.01). Conclusion: Intratumoral pks+E.coli+ but not pks+E.coli- are associated with CRCs harbouring the APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation, suggesting that this mutation is specifically related to DNA damage from colibactin-producing E.coli exposures. F. nucleatum was associated with both hereditary and sporadic MMRd subtypes, suggesting the MMRd tumour microenvironment is important for F. nucleatum colonisation irrespective of its cause.
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    Identifying primary and secondary MLH1 epimutation carriers displaying low-level constitutional MLH1 methylation using droplet digital PCR and genome-wide DNA methylation profiling of colorectal cancers
    Joo, JE ; Mahmood, K ; Walker, R ; Georgeson, P ; Candiloro, I ; Clendenning, M ; Como, J ; Joseland, S ; Preston, S ; Graversen, L ; Wilding, M ; Field, M ; Lemon, M ; Wakeling, J ; Marfan, H ; Susman, R ; Isbister, J ; Edwards, E ; Bowman, M ; Kirk, J ; Ip, E ; McKay, L ; Antill, Y ; Hopper, JL ; Boussioutas, A ; Macrae, FA ; Dobrovic, A ; Jenkins, MA ; Rosty, C ; Winship, IM ; Buchanan, DD (BMC, 2023-06-03)
    BACKGROUND: MLH1 epimutation is characterised by constitutional monoallelic MLH1 promoter hypermethylation, which can cause colorectal cancer (CRC). Tumour molecular profiles of MLH1 epimutation CRCs were used to classify germline MLH1 promoter variants of uncertain significance and MLH1 methylated early-onset CRCs (EOCRCs). Genome-wide DNA methylation and somatic mutational profiles of tumours from two germline MLH1: c.-11C > T and one MLH1: c.-[28A > G; 7C > T] carriers and three MLH1 methylated EOCRCs (< 45 years) were compared with 38 reference CRCs. Methylation-sensitive droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) was used to detect mosaic MLH1 methylation in blood, normal mucosa and buccal DNA. RESULTS: Genome-wide methylation-based Consensus Clustering identified four clusters where the tumour methylation profiles of germline MLH1: c.-11C > T carriers and MLH1 methylated EOCRCs clustered with the constitutional MLH1 epimutation CRCs but not with the sporadic MLH1 methylated CRCs. Furthermore, monoallelic MLH1 methylation and APC promoter hypermethylation in tumour were observed in both MLH1 epimutation and germline MLH1: c.-11C > T carriers and MLH1 methylated EOCRCs. Mosaic constitutional MLH1 methylation in MLH1: c.-11C > T carriers and 1 of 3 MLH1 methylated EOCRCs was identified by methylation-sensitive ddPCR. CONCLUSIONS: Mosaic MLH1 epimutation underlies the CRC aetiology in MLH1: c.-11C > T germline carriers and a subset of MLH1 methylated EOCRCs. Tumour profiling and ultra-sensitive ddPCR methylation testing can be used to identify mosaic MLH1 epimutation carriers.
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    Evaluating Multiple Next-Generation Sequencing-Derived Tumor Features to Accurately Predict DNA Mismatch Repair Status
    Walker, R ; Georgeson, P ; Mahmood, K ; Joo, JE ; Makalic, E ; Clendenning, M ; Como, J ; Preston, S ; Joseland, S ; Pope, BJ ; Hutchinson, RA ; Kasem, K ; Walsh, MD ; Macrae, FA ; Win, AK ; Hopper, JL ; Mouradov, D ; Gibbs, P ; Sieber, OM ; O'Sullivan, DE ; Brenner, DR ; Gallinger, S ; Jenkins, MA ; Rosty, C ; Winship, IM ; Buchanan, DD (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2023-02)
    Identifying tumor DNA mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR) is important for precision medicine. Tumor features, individually and in combination, derived from whole-exome sequenced (WES) colorectal cancers (CRCs) and panel-sequenced CRCs, endometrial cancers (ECs), and sebaceous skin tumors (SSTs) were assessed for their accuracy in detecting dMMR. CRCs (n = 300) with WES, where mismatch repair status was determined by immunohistochemistry, were assessed for microsatellite instability (MSMuTect, MANTIS, MSIseq, and MSISensor), Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer tumor mutational signatures, and somatic mutation counts. A 10-fold cross-validation approach (100 repeats) evaluated the dMMR prediction accuracy for i) individual features, ii) Lasso statistical model, and iii) an additive feature combination approach. Panel-sequenced tumors (29 CRCs, 22 ECs, and 20 SSTs) were assessed for the top performing dMMR predicting features/models using these three approaches. For WES CRCs, 10 features provided >80% dMMR prediction accuracy, with MSMuTect, MSIseq, and MANTIS achieving ≥99% accuracy. The Lasso model achieved 98.3% accuracy. The additive feature approach, with three or more of six of MSMuTect, MANTIS, MSIseq, MSISensor, insertion-deletion count, or tumor mutational signature small insertion/deletion 2 + small insertion/deletion 7 achieved 99.7% accuracy. For the panel-sequenced tumors, the additive feature combination approach of three or more of six achieved accuracies of 100%, 95.5%, and 100% for CRCs, ECs, and SSTs, respectively. The microsatellite instability calling tools performed well in WES CRCs; however, an approach combining tumor features may improve dMMR prediction in both WES and panel-sequenced data across tissue types.
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    A tumor focused approach to resolving the etiology of DNA mismatch repair deficient tumors classified as suspected Lynch syndrome
    Walker, R ; Mahmood, KE ; Joo, J ; Clendenning, M ; Georgeson, P ; Como, J ; Joseland, SG ; Preston, S ; Antill, Y ; Austin, R ; Boussioutas, A ; Bowman, M ; Burke, J ; Campbell, A ; Daneshvar, S ; Edwards, E ; Gleeson, M ; Goodwin, AT ; Harris, M ; Henderson, A ; Higgins, ML ; Hopper, JA ; Hutchinson, R ; Ip, E ; Isbister, J ; Kasem, K ; Marfan, H ; Milnes, D ; Ng, A ; Nichols, C ; O'Connell, S ; Pachter, NJ ; Pope, B ; Poplawski, N ; Ragunathan, A ; Smyth, C ; Spigelman, A ; Storey, K ; Susman, RA ; Taylor, J ; Warwick, L ; Wilding, M ; Williams, RK ; Win, AD ; Walsh, MA ; Macrae, FA ; Jenkins, M ; Rosty, CM ; Winship, ID ; Buchanan, D (BMC, 2023-04-26)
    Routine screening of tumors for DNA mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency (dMMR) in colorectal (CRC), endometrial (EC) and sebaceous skin (SST) tumors leads to a significant proportion of unresolved cases classified as suspected Lynch syndrome (SLS). SLS cases (n = 135) were recruited from Family Cancer Clinics across Australia and New Zealand. Targeted panel sequencing was performed on tumor (n = 137; 80×CRCs, 33×ECs and 24xSSTs) and matched blood-derived DNA to assess for microsatellite instability status, tumor mutation burden, COSMIC tumor mutational signatures and to identify germline and somatic MMR gene variants. MMR immunohistochemistry (IHC) and MLH1 promoter methylation were repeated. In total, 86.9% of the 137 SLS tumors could be resolved into established subtypes. For 22.6% of these resolved SLS cases, primary MLH1 epimutations (2.2%) as well as previously undetected germline MMR pathogenic variants (1.5%), tumor MLH1 methylation (13.1%) or false positive dMMR IHC (5.8%) results were identified. Double somatic MMR gene mutations were the major cause of dMMR identified across each tumor type (73.9% of resolved cases, 64.2% overall, 70% of CRC, 45.5% of ECs and 70.8% of SSTs). The unresolved SLS tumors (13.1%) comprised tumors with only a single somatic (7.3%) or no somatic (5.8%) MMR gene mutations. A tumor-focused testing approach reclassified 86.9% of SLS into Lynch syndrome, sporadic dMMR or MMR-proficient cases. These findings support the incorporation of tumor sequencing and alternate MLH1 methylation assays into clinical diagnostics to reduce the number of SLS patients and provide more appropriate surveillance and screening recommendations.
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    Body Mass Index, sex, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug medications, smoking and alcohol are differentially associated with World Health Organisation criteria and colorectal cancer risk in people with Serrated Polyposis Syndrome: an Australian case-control study
    Anthony, E ; Reece, JC ; Milanzi, E ; Joo, JE ; Joseland, S ; Clendenning, M ; Whelan, A ; Parry, S ; Arnold, J ; Vijay, V ; Atkinson, N ; Hopper, JL ; Win, AK ; Jenkins, MA ; Macrae, FA ; Winship, IM ; Rosty, C ; Buchanan, DD (BMC, 2022-11-26)
    OBJECTIVE: The unknown aetiology of Serrated Polyposis Syndrome (SPS) impedes risk prediction and prevention. We investigated risk factors for SPS, overall and stratified by World Health Organization (WHO)2010 clinical criteria and by colorectal cancer (CRC). METHOD: A retrospective case-control study involving a cross-sectional analysis from 350 unrelated individuals with SPS from the Genetics of Colonic Polyposis Study and 714 controls from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to determine the association between risk factors and SPS and risk factors associated with CRC in SPS. RESULTS: Female biological sex (odds ratio (OR) = 4.54; 95%Confidence interval (CI) = 2.77-7.45), increasing body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years (OR = 1.09; 95%CI = 1.04-1.13), hormone replacement therapy (OR = 0.44; 95%CI = 0.20.98), and increasing weekly folate intake (OR = 0.82; 95%CI = 0.75-0.90) were associated with SPS by multivariate analysis. Increasing weekly calcium intake (OR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.64-0.97) and smoking > 10 cigarettes daily (OR = 0.45; 95%CI = 0.23-0.86) were associated with WHO criterion I only. The consumption of 1-100 g of alcohol per week (OR = 0.39; 95%CI = 0.18-0.83) was associated with WHO criterion III only. Smoking 1-5 cigarettes daily (OR = 2.35; 95%CI = 1.09-5.05), weekly non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAIDs) intake (OR = 0.88; 95%CI = 0.78-0.99), and increased height (OR = 1.09; 95% = 1.05-1.13), were associated with SPS fulfilling both WHO criteria I and III. Moreover, weekly NSAIDs intake (OR = 0.81; 95%CI = 0.67-0.98) was associated with a reduced likelihood of CRC in SPS. CONCLUSION: We identified novel risk and potential protective factors associated with SPS, some specific for certain WHO2010 criteria. Weekly use of NSAIDs may reduce the risk of CRC in people with SPS.
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    Weight is More Informative than Body Mass Index for Predicting Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Risk: Prospective Family Study Cohort (ProF-SC)
    Ye, Z ; Li, S ; Dite, GS ; Nguyen, TL ; MacInnis, RJ ; Andrulis, IL ; Buys, SS ; Daly, MB ; John, EM ; Kurian, AW ; Genkinger, JM ; Chung, WK ; Phillips, K-A ; Thorne, H ; Winship, IM ; Milne, RL ; Dugue, P-A ; Southey, MC ; Giles, GG ; Terry, MB ; Hopper, JL (AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2022-03)
    UNLABELLED: We considered whether weight is more informative than body mass index (BMI) = weight/height2 when predicting breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women, and if the weight association differs by underlying familial risk. We studied 6,761 women postmenopausal at baseline with a wide range of familial risk from 2,364 families in the Prospective Family Study Cohort. Participants were followed for on average 11.45 years and there were 416 incident breast cancers. We used Cox regression to estimate risk associations with log-transformed weight and BMI after adjusting for underlying familial risk. We compared model fits using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and nested models using the likelihood ratio test. The AIC for the weight-only model was 6.22 units lower than for the BMI-only model, and the log risk gradient was 23% greater. Adding BMI or height to weight did not improve fit (ΔAIC = 0.90 and 0.83, respectively; both P = 0.3). Conversely, adding weight to BMI or height gave better fits (ΔAIC = 5.32 and 11.64; P = 0.007 and 0.0002, respectively). Adding height improved only the BMI model (ΔAIC = 5.47; P = 0.006). There was no evidence that the BMI or weight associations differed by underlying familial risk (P > 0.2). Weight is more informative than BMI for predicting breast cancer risk, consistent with nonadipose as well as adipose tissue being etiologically relevant. The independent but multiplicative associations of weight and familial risk suggest that, in terms of absolute breast cancer risk, the association with weight is more important the greater a woman's underlying familial risk. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Our results suggest that the relationship between BMI and breast cancer could be due to a relationship between weight and breast cancer, downgraded by inappropriately adjusting for height; potential importance of anthropometric measures other than total body fat; breast cancer risk associations with BMI and weight are across a continuum.
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    Colorectal cancer incidences in Lynch syndrome: a comparison of results from the prospective lynch syndrome database and the international mismatch repair consortium
    Moller, P ; Seppala, T ; Dowty, JG ; Haupt, S ; Dominguez-Valentin, M ; Sunde, L ; Bernstein, I ; Engel, C ; Aretz, S ; Nielsen, M ; Capella, G ; Evans, DG ; Burn, J ; Holinski-Feder, E ; Bertario, L ; Bonanni, B ; Lindblom, A ; Levi, Z ; Macrae, F ; Winship, I ; Plazzer, J-P ; Sijmons, R ; Laghi, L ; Della Valle, A ; Heinimann, K ; Half, E ; Lopez-Koestner, F ; Alvarez-Valenzuela, K ; Scott, RJ ; Katz, L ; Laish, I ; Vainer, E ; Vaccaro, CA ; Carraro, DM ; Gluck, N ; Abu-Freha, N ; Stakelum, A ; Kennelly, R ; Winter, D ; Rossi, BM ; Greenblatt, M ; Bohorquez, M ; Sheth, H ; Tibiletti, MG ; Lino-Silva, LS ; Horisberger, K ; Portenkirchner, C ; Nascimento, I ; Rossi, NT ; da Silva, LA ; Thomas, H ; Zarand, A ; Mecklin, J-P ; Pylvanainen, K ; Renkonen-Sinisalo, L ; Lepisto, A ; Peltomaki, P ; Therkildsen, C ; Lindberg, LJ ; Thorlacius-Ussing, O ; von Knebel Doeberitz, M ; Loeffler, M ; Rahner, N ; Steinke-Lange, V ; Schmiegel, W ; Vangala, D ; Perne, C ; Hueneburg, R ; de Vargas, AF ; Latchford, A ; Gerdes, A-M ; Backman, A-S ; Guillen-Ponce, C ; Snyder, C ; Lautrup, CK ; Amor, D ; Palmero, E ; Stoffel, E ; Duijkers, F ; Hall, MJ ; Hampel, H ; Williams, H ; Okkels, H ; Lubinski, J ; Reece, J ; Ngeow, J ; Guillem, JG ; Arnold, J ; Wadt, K ; Monahan, K ; Senter, L ; Rasmussen, LJ ; van Hest, LP ; Ricciardiello, L ; Kohonen-Corish, MRJ ; Ligtenberg, MJL ; Southey, M ; Aronson, M ; Zahary, MN ; Samadder, NJ ; Poplawski, N ; Hoogerbrugge, N ; Morrison, PJ ; James, P ; Lee, G ; Chen-Shtoyerman, R ; Ankathil, R ; Pai, R ; Ward, R ; Parry, S ; Debniak, T ; John, T ; van Overeem Hansen, T ; Caldes, T ; Yamaguchi, T ; Barca-Tierno, V ; Garre, P ; Cavestro, GM ; Weitz, J ; Redler, S ; Buettner, R ; Heuveline, V ; Hopper, JL ; Win, AK ; Lindor, N ; Gallinger, S ; Le Marchand, L ; Newcomb, PA ; Figueiredo, J ; Buchanan, DD ; Thibodeau, SN ; ten Broeke, SW ; Hovig, E ; Nakken, S ; Pineda, M ; Duenas, N ; Brunet, J ; Green, K ; Lalloo, F ; Newton, K ; Crosbie, EJ ; Mints, M ; Tjandra, D ; Neffa, F ; Esperon, P ; Kariv, R ; Rosner, G ; Pavicic, WH ; Kalfayan, P ; Torrezan, GT ; Bassaneze, T ; Martin, C ; Moslein, G ; Ahadova, A ; Kloor, M ; Sampson, JR ; Jenkins, MA (BMC, 2022-10-01)
    OBJECTIVE: To compare colorectal cancer (CRC) incidences in carriers of pathogenic variants of the MMR genes in the PLSD and IMRC cohorts, of which only the former included mandatory colonoscopy surveillance for all participants. METHODS: CRC incidences were calculated in an intervention group comprising a cohort of confirmed carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (path_MMR) followed prospectively by the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD). All had colonoscopy surveillance, with polypectomy when polyps were identified. Comparison was made with a retrospective cohort reported by the International Mismatch Repair Consortium (IMRC). This comprised confirmed and inferred path_MMR carriers who were first- or second-degree relatives of Lynch syndrome probands. RESULTS: In the PLSD, 8,153 subjects had follow-up colonoscopy surveillance for a total of 67,604 years and 578 carriers had CRC diagnosed. Average cumulative incidences of CRC in path_MLH1 carriers at 70 years of age were 52% in males and 41% in females; for path_MSH2 50% and 39%; for path_MSH6 13% and 17% and for path_PMS2 11% and 8%. In contrast, in the IMRC cohort, corresponding cumulative incidences were 40% and 27%; 34% and 23%; 16% and 8% and 7% and 6%. Comparing just the European carriers in the two series gave similar findings. Numbers in the PLSD series did not allow comparisons of carriers from other continents separately. Cumulative incidences at 25 years were < 1% in all retrospective groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prospectively observed CRC incidences (PLSD) in path_MLH1 and path_MSH2 carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance and polypectomy were higher than in the retrospective (IMRC) series, and were not reduced in path_MSH6 carriers. These findings were the opposite to those expected. CRC point incidence before 50 years of age was reduced in path_PMS2 carriers subjected to colonoscopy, but not significantly so.
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    Population-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing
    Southey, MC ; Dowty, JG ; Riaz, M ; Steen, JA ; Renault, A-L ; Tucker, K ; Kirk, J ; James, P ; Winship, I ; Pachter, N ; Poplawski, N ; Grist, S ; Park, DJ ; Pope, BJ ; Mahmood, K ; Hammet, F ; Mahmoodi, M ; Tsimiklis, H ; Theys, D ; Rewse, A ; Willis, A ; Morrow, A ; Speechly, C ; Harris, R ; Sebra, R ; Schadt, E ; Lacaze, P ; McNeil, JJ ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL ; Hopper, JL ; Nguyen-Dumont, T (NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2021-12-09)
    Population-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing are urgently required. Most prior research has been based on women selected for high-risk features and more data is needed to make inference about breast cancer risk for women unselected for family history, an important consideration of population screening. We tested 1464 women diagnosed with breast cancer and 862 age-matched controls participating in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS), and 6549 healthy, older Australian women enroled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study for rare germline variants using a 24-gene-panel. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age and other potential confounders. We identified pathogenic variants in 11.1% of the ABCFS cases, 3.7% of the ABCFS controls and 2.2% of the ASPREE (control) participants. The estimated breast cancer OR [95% confidence interval] was 5.3 [2.1-16.2] for BRCA1, 4.0 [1.9-9.1] for BRCA2, 3.4 [1.4-8.4] for ATM and 4.3 [1.0-17.0] for PALB2. Our findings provide a population-based perspective to gene-panel testing for breast cancer predisposition and opportunities to improve predictors for identifying women who carry pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes.
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    Population-based estimates of age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer for pathogenic variants in ATM
    Renault, A-L ; Dowty, JG ; Steen, JA ; Li, S ; Winship, IM ; Giles, GG ; Hopper, JL ; Southey, MC ; Nguyen-Dumont, T (BMC, 2022-04-01)
    BACKGROUND: Multigene panel tests for breast cancer predisposition routinely include ATM as it is now a well-established breast cancer predisposition gene. METHODS: We included ATM in a multigene panel test applied to the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry (ABCFR), a population-based case-control-family study of breast cancer, with the purpose of estimating the prevalence and penetrance of heterozygous ATM pathogenic variants from the family data, using segregation analysis. RESULTS: The estimated breast cancer hazard ratio for carriers of pathogenic ATM variants in the ABCFR was 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.45-3.87; P = 0.6). The estimated cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 80 years for heterozygous ATM pathogenic variant carriers was estimated to be 13% (95% CI 4.6-30). CONCLUSIONS: Although ATM has been definitively identified as a breast cancer predisposition gene, further evidence, such as variant-specific penetrance estimates, are needed to inform risk management strategies for carriers of pathogenic variants to increase the clinical utility of population testing of this gene.
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    Prospective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models
    Li, SX ; Milne, RL ; Nguyen-Dumont, T ; English, DR ; Giles, GG ; Southey, MC ; Antoniou, AC ; Lee, A ; Winship, I ; Hopper, JL ; Terry, MB ; MacInnis, RJ (MDPI, 2021-10)
    Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50-65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003-2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of risk by age group (50-54, 55-59, 60-65 years) and family history of breast cancer. C-statistics were higher for BOADICEA (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.62) and IBIS (0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.61) than the other models (p-difference ≤ 0.04). No model except BOADICEA calibrated well across the spectrum of 15-year risk (p-value < 0.03). The performance of BOADICEA and IBIS was similar across age groups and for women with or without a family history. For middle-aged Australian women, BOADICEA and IBIS had the highest discriminatory accuracy of the six risk models, but apart from BOADICEA, no model was well-calibrated across the risk spectrum.