Medicine (RMH) - Research Publications
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ItemHospitalisations related to lower respiratory tract infections in Northern Queensland(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2021-10)OBJECTIVE: To investigate the admission characteristics and hospital outcomes for patients admitted with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in Northern Queensland. METHODS: We perform a retrospective analysis of the data covering an 11-year period, 2006-2016. Length of hospital stay (LOS) is modelled by negative binomial regression and heterogeneous effects are checked using interaction terms. RESULTS: A total of 11,726 patients were admitted due to LRTI; 2,430 (20.9%) were of Indigenous descent. We found higher hospitalisations due to LRTI for Indigenous than non-Indigenous patients, with a disproportionate increase in hospitalisations occurring during winter. The LOS for Indigenous patients was higher by 2.5 days [95%CI: -0.15; 5.05] than for non-Indigenous patients. The average marginal effect of 17.5 [95%CI: 15.3; 29.7] implies that the LOS for a patient, who was admitted to ICU, was higher by 17.5 days. CONCLUSIONS: We highlighted the increased burden of LRTIs experienced by Indigenous populations, with this information potentially being useful for enhancing community-level policy making. Implications for public health: Future guidelines can use these results to make recommendations for preventative measures in Indigenous communities. Improvements in engagement and partnership with Indigenous communities and consumers can help increase healthcare uptake and reduce the burden of respiratory diseases.
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ItemHospitalisation for lower respiratory tract infection is associated with an increased incidence of acute myocardial infarction and stroke in tropical Northern Australia(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2021-03-25)Acute respiratory infections appear to precipitate vascular events. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke are the leading cause of death and disability globally. This study was based on a cohort of patients admitted to Townsville University Hospital between January 2006 and December 2016. Using a self-controlled case series design, we investigated the risk of AMI or ischaemic stroke after an episode of pneumonia. We defined the 'risk interval' as the first 14 days after hospitalisation for pneumonia and the 'control interval' as one year before and one year after the risk interval. Among a population (N = 4557) with a median age of over 70, a total of 128 AMI and 27 stroke cases were identified within 1 year of an episode of pneumonia in this study. Ten and two admissions occurred during the risk interval, while 118 and 25 admissions occurred during the control period. The relative incidence ratios (RIR) of AMI increased after an episode of pneumonia (RIR=4.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.44-9.67). The risk for stroke after the exposure period of 14 days was 4.94 (95% CI 1.12-21.78) considering only the first stroke incidence. The RIR results for AMI and stroke were not altered by adjusting for age, sex or Indigenous status. The risk of AMI and stroke were significantly higher two weeks after an episode of pneumonia.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableChange in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: A modelling study(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2021)BACKGROUND: The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China has now spread to every inhabitable continent, but now the attention has shifted from China to other epicentres. This study explored early assessment of the influence of spatial proximities and travel patterns from Italy on the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. METHODS: Using data on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and air travel data between countries, we applied a stochastic meta-population model to estimate the global spread of COVID-19. Pearson's correlation, semi-variogram, and Moran's Index were used to examine the association and spatial autocorrelation between the number of COVID-19 cases and travel influx (and arrival time) from the source country. RESULTS: We found significant negative association between disease arrival time and number of cases imported from Italy (r = -0.43, p = 0.004) and significant positive association between the number of COVID-19 cases and daily travel influx from Italy (r = 0.39, p = 0.011). Using bivariate Moran's Index analysis, we found evidence of spatial interaction between COVID-19 cases and travel influx (Moran's I = 0.340). Asia-Pacific region is at higher/extreme risk of disease importation from the Chinese epicentre, whereas the rest of Europe, South-America and Africa are more at risk from the Italian epicentre. CONCLUSION: We showed that as the epicentre changes, the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread change to reflect spatial proximities.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableEffect of aspirin on deaths associated with sepsis in healthy older people (ANTISEPSIS): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled primary prevention trial(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2021-02)BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a serious global health issue and a major cause of death and disability. The availability of a simple, community-based preventive strategy could substantially reduce the burden of sepsis. We aimed to establish whether low-dose aspirin reduced deaths or hospital admissions associated with sepsis in older people. METHODS: ANTISEPSIS was a substudy of ASPREE (a randomised controlled primary prevention trial of low-dose aspirin [100 mg per day] compared with placebo in community dwelling older adults conducted in Australia and the USA), with the Australian cohort included in the ANTISEPSIS substudy. Inclusion criteria were participants aged at least 70 years who did not have major illnesses. Participants were block randomised (1:1) via a centralised web portal and stratified by general practice and age. Participants, investigators, and staff were masked to the intervention. Teams of clinical specialist investigators assessed potential sepsis events to establish if they satisfied the primary endpoint of death associated with sepsis. The analyses were by intention-to-treat with univariate survival analysis methods, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression. This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12613000349741. RESULTS: Between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014, of 20 288 individuals assessed for eligibility, 16 703 participants aged 70 years and older at trial entry were enrolled and followed up for a median of 4·6 years (IQR 3·6-5·6). 8322 (49·8%) participants were assigned to receive aspirin and 8381 (50·2%) to placebo. 203 deaths were considered to be associated with sepsis. Univariate analysis showed similar rates of death associated with sepsis in the two study groups (hazard ratio for aspirin vs placebo 1·08, 95% CI 0·82-1·43; p=0·57). Adverse events were previously reported in the ASPREE trial. INTERPRETATION: Daily low-dose aspirin treatment did not reduce deaths associated with sepsis in community dwelling older adults. Our findings do not support the use of aspirin as a primary prevention strategy to reduce the burden of sepsis in this population. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, National Institutes of Health, Monash University.
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ItemEconomic Consequences of the COVID-19 Outbreak: the Need for Epidemic Preparedness(FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2020-05-29)COVID-19 is not only a global pandemic and public health crisis; it has also severely affected the global economy and financial markets. Significant reductions in income, a rise in unemployment, and disruptions in the transportation, service, and manufacturing industries are among the consequences of the disease mitigation measures that have been implemented in many countries. It has become clear that most governments in the world underestimated the risks of rapid COVID-19 spread and were mostly reactive in their crisis response. As disease outbreaks are not likely to disappear in the near future, proactive international actions are required to not only save lives but also protect economic prosperity.
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ItemLinking administrative data sets of inpatient infectious diseases diagnoses in far North Queensland: a cohort profile(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2020-03)PURPOSE: To design a linked hospital database using administrative and clinical information to describe associations that predict infectious diseases outcomes, including long-term mortality. PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort of Townsville Hospital inpatients discharged with an International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision Australian Modification code for an infectious disease between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2016 was assembled. This used linked anonymised data from: hospital administrative sources, diagnostic pathology, pharmacy dispensing, public health and the National Death Registry. A Created Study ID was used as the central identifier to provide associations between the cohort patients and the subsets of granular data which were processed into a relational database. A web-based interface was constructed to allow data extraction and evaluation to be performed using editable Structured Query Language. FINDINGS TO DATE: The database has linked information on 41 367 patients with 378 487 admissions and 1 869 239 diagnostic/procedure codes. Scripts used to create the database contents generated over 24 000 000 database rows from the supplied data. Nearly 15% of the cohort was identified as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders. Invasive staphylococcal, pneumococcal and Group A streptococcal infections and influenza were common in this cohort. The most common comorbidities were smoking (43.95%), diabetes (24.73%), chronic renal disease (17.93%), cancer (16.45%) and chronic pulmonary disease (12.42%). Mortality over the 11-year period was 20%. FUTURE PLANS: This complex relational database reutilising hospital information describes a cohort from a single tropical Australian hospital of inpatients with infectious diseases. In future analyses, we plan to explore analyses of risks, clinical outcomes, healthcare costs and antimicrobial side effects in site and organism specific infections.