Medicine (RMH) - Research Publications

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Start date: 2020 × End date: 2022 × Author: McBryde, Emma × Author: McCaw, James ×

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    Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
    Thompson, RN ; Hollingsworth, TD ; Isham, V ; Arribas-Bel, D ; Ashby, B ; Britton, T ; Challenor, P ; Chappell, LHK ; Clapham, H ; Cunniffe, NJ ; Dawid, AP ; Donnelly, CA ; Eggo, RM ; Funk, S ; Gilbert, N ; Glendinning, P ; Gog, JR ; Hart, WS ; Heesterbeek, H ; House, T ; Keeling, M ; Kiss, IZ ; Kretzschmar, ME ; Lloyd, AL ; McBryde, ES ; McCaw, JM ; McKinley, TJ ; Miller, JC ; Morris, M ; O'Neill, PD ; Parag, K ; Pearson, CAB ; Pellis, L ; Pulliam, JRC ; Ross, J ; Tomba, GS ; Silverman, BW ; Struchiner, CJ ; Tildesley, MJ ; Trapman, P ; Webb, CR ; Mollison, D ; Restif, O (ROYAL SOC, 2020-08-12)
    Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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    Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
    Price, DJ ; Shearer, FM ; Meehan, MT ; McBryde, E ; Moss, R ; Golding, N ; Conway, EJ ; Dawson, P ; Cromer, D ; Wood, J ; Abbott, S ; McVernon, J ; McCaw, JM (eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD, 2020-08-13)
    As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).