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ItemNo Preview AvailableMathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2024-03)Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.
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ItemIdentifying and combating the impacts of COVID-19 on malaria(BMC, 2020-07-30)BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in millions of infections, hundreds of thousands of deaths and major societal disruption due to lockdowns and other restrictions introduced to limit disease spread. Relatively little attention has been paid to understanding how the pandemic has affected treatment, prevention and control of malaria, which is a major cause of death and disease and predominantly affects people in less well-resourced settings. MAIN BODY: Recent successes in malaria control and elimination have reduced the global malaria burden, but these gains are fragile and progress has stalled in the past 5 years. Withdrawing successful interventions often results in rapid malaria resurgence, primarily threatening vulnerable young children and pregnant women. Malaria programmes are being affected in many ways by COVID-19. For prevention of malaria, insecticide-treated nets need regular renewal, but distribution campaigns have been delayed or cancelled. For detection and treatment of malaria, individuals may stop attending health facilities, out of fear of exposure to COVID-19, or because they cannot afford transport, and health care workers require additional resources to protect themselves from COVID-19. Supplies of diagnostics and drugs are being interrupted, which is compounded by production of substandard and falsified medicines and diagnostics. These disruptions are predicted to double the number of young African children dying of malaria in the coming year and may impact efforts to control the spread of drug resistance. Using examples from successful malaria control and elimination campaigns, we propose strategies to re-establish malaria control activities and maintain elimination efforts in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is likely to be a long-term challenge. All sectors of society, including governments, donors, private sector and civil society organisations, have crucial roles to play to prevent malaria resurgence. Sparse resources must be allocated efficiently to ensure integrated health care systems that can sustain control activities against COVID-19 as well as malaria and other priority infectious diseases. CONCLUSION: As we deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial that other major killers such as malaria are not ignored. History tells us that if we do, the consequences will be dire, particularly in vulnerable populations.
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ItemIdentifying and combating the impacts of COVID-19 on malaria(BMC, 2020-07-30)BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in millions of infections, hundreds of thousands of deaths and major societal disruption due to lockdowns and other restrictions introduced to limit disease spread. Relatively little attention has been paid to understanding how the pandemic has affected treatment, prevention and control of malaria, which is a major cause of death and disease and predominantly affects people in less well-resourced settings. MAIN BODY: Recent successes in malaria control and elimination have reduced the global malaria burden, but these gains are fragile and progress has stalled in the past 5 years. Withdrawing successful interventions often results in rapid malaria resurgence, primarily threatening vulnerable young children and pregnant women. Malaria programmes are being affected in many ways by COVID-19. For prevention of malaria, insecticide-treated nets need regular renewal, but distribution campaigns have been delayed or cancelled. For detection and treatment of malaria, individuals may stop attending health facilities, out of fear of exposure to COVID-19, or because they cannot afford transport, and health care workers require additional resources to protect themselves from COVID-19. Supplies of diagnostics and drugs are being interrupted, which is compounded by production of substandard and falsified medicines and diagnostics. These disruptions are predicted to double the number of young African children dying of malaria in the coming year and may impact efforts to control the spread of drug resistance. Using examples from successful malaria control and elimination campaigns, we propose strategies to re-establish malaria control activities and maintain elimination efforts in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is likely to be a long-term challenge. All sectors of society, including governments, donors, private sector and civil society organisations, have crucial roles to play to prevent malaria resurgence. Sparse resources must be allocated efficiently to ensure integrated health care systems that can sustain control activities against COVID-19 as well as malaria and other priority infectious diseases. CONCLUSION: As we deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial that other major killers such as malaria are not ignored. History tells us that if we do, the consequences will be dire, particularly in vulnerable populations.
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