Medical Biology - Research Publications

Permanent URI for this collection

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 16
  • Item
    No Preview Available
    Effect of adherence to primaquine on the risk of Plasmodium vivax recurrence: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis
    Mehdipour, P ; Rajasekhar, M ; Dini, S ; Zaloumis, S ; Abreha, T ; Adam, I ; Awab, GR ; Baird, JK ; Brasil, LW ; Chu, CS ; Cui, L ; Daher, A ; Gomes, M ; Gonzalez-Ceron, L ; Hwang, J ; Karunajeewa, H ; Lacerda, MVG ; Ladeia-Andrade, S ; Leslie, T ; Ley, B ; Lidia, K ; Llanos-Cuentas, A ; Longley, RJ ; Monteiro, WM ; Pereira, DB ; Rijal, KR ; Saravu, K ; Sutanto, I ; Taylor, WRJ ; Thanh, PV ; Thriemer, K ; Vieira, JLF ; White, NJ ; Zuluaga-Idarraga, LM ; Guerin, PJ ; Price, RN ; Simpson, JA ; Commons, RJ (BMC, 2023-10-10)
    BACKGROUND: Imperfect adherence is a major barrier to effective primaquine radical cure of Plasmodium vivax. This study investigated the effect of reduced adherence on the risk of P. vivax recurrence. METHODS: Efficacy studies of patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, including a treatment arm with daily primaquine, published between January 1999 and March 2020 were identified. Individual patient data from eligible studies were pooled using standardized methodology. Adherence to primaquine was inferred from i) the percentage of supervised doses and ii) the total mg/kg dose received compared to the target total mg/kg dose per protocol. The effect of adherence to primaquine on the incidence of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 90 was investigated by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 82 eligible studies, 32 were available including 6917 patients from 18 countries. For adherence assessed by percentage of supervised primaquine, 2790 patients (40.3%) had poor adherence (≤ 50%) and 4127 (59.7%) had complete adherence. The risk of recurrence by day 90 was 14.0% [95% confidence interval: 12.1-16.1] in patients with poor adherence compared to 5.8% [5.0-6.7] following full adherence; p = 0.014. After controlling for age, sex, baseline parasitaemia, and total primaquine dose per protocol, the rate of the first recurrence was higher following poor adherence compared to patients with full adherence (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.3 [1.8-2.9]). When adherence was quantified by total mg/kg dose received among 3706 patients, 347 (9.4%) had poor adherence, 88 (2.4%) had moderate adherence, and 3271 (88.2%) had complete adherence to treatment. The risks of recurrence by day 90 were 8.2% [4.3-15.2] in patients with poor adherence and 4.9% [4.1-5.8] in patients with full adherence; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Reduced adherence, including less supervision, increases the risk of vivax recurrence.
  • Item
    No Preview Available
    Antibody to Plasmodium falciparum Variant Surface Antigens, var Gene Transcription, and ABO Blood Group in Children With Severe or Uncomplicated Malaria
    Barua, P ; Duffy, MF ; Manning, L ; Laman, M ; Davis, TME ; Mueller, I ; Haghiri, A ; Simpson, JA ; Beeson, JG ; Rogerson, SJ (OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2023-10-18)
    BACKGROUND: Antibodies to variant surface antigens (VSAs) such as Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) may vary with malaria severity. The influence of ABO blood group on antibody development is not understood. METHODS: Immunoglobulin G antibodies to VSAs in Papua New Guinean children with severe (n = 41) or uncomplicated (n = 30) malaria were measured by flow cytometry using homologous P falciparum isolates. Isolates were incubated with ABO-matched homologous and heterologous acute and convalescent plasma. RNA was used to assess var gene transcription. RESULTS: Antibodies to homologous, but not heterologous, isolates were boosted in convalescence. The relationship between antibody and severity varied by blood group. Antibodies to VSAs were similar in severe and uncomplicated malaria at presentation, higher in severe than uncomplicated malaria in convalescence, and higher in children with blood group O than other children. Six var gene transcripts best distinguished severe from uncomplicated malaria, including UpsA and 2 CIDRα1 domains. CONCLUSIONS: ABO blood group may influence antibody acquisition to VSAs and susceptibility to severe malaria. Children in Papua New Guinea showed little evidence of acquisition of cross-reactive antibodies following malaria. Var gene transcripts in Papua New Guinean children with severe malaria were similar to those reported from Africa.
  • Item
    No Preview Available
    Efficacy and safety of moxidectin against strongyloidiasis
    Luvira, V ; Watthanakulpanich, D (ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024-02)
    BACKGROUND: Primaquine is used to eliminate Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites, but its optimal dosing regimen remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of different primaquine dosing regimens to prevent P vivax recurrence. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, and if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days, where primaquine was commenced within 7 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. We assessed the effects of total dose and duration of primaquine regimens on the rate of first P vivax recurrence between day 7 and day 180 by Cox's proportional hazards regression (efficacy analysis). The effect of primaquine daily dose on gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 was assessed by modified Poisson regression (tolerability analysis). The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 23 studies with patient-level data from 6879 patients from 16 countries were included in the efficacy analysis. At day 180, the risk of recurrence was 51·0% (95% CI 48·2-53·9) in 1470 patients treated without primaquine, 19·3% (16·9-21·9) in 2569 patients treated with a low total dose of primaquine (approximately 3·5 mg/kg), and 8·1% (7·0-9·4) in 2811 patients treated with a high total dose of primaquine (approximately 7 mg/kg), regardless of primaquine treatment duration. Compared with treatment without primaquine, the rate of P vivax recurrence was lower after treatment with low-dose primaquine (adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17-0·27; p<0·0001) and high-dose primaquine (0·10, 0·08-0·12; p<0·0001). High-dose primaquine had greater efficacy than low-dose primaquine in regions with high and low relapse periodicity (ie, the time from initial infection to vivax relapse). 16 studies with patient-level data from 5609 patients from ten countries were included in the tolerability analysis. Gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 were reported by 4·0% (95% CI 0·0-8·7) of 893 patients treated without primaquine, 6·2% (0·5-12·0) of 737 patients treated with a low daily dose of primaquine (approximately 0·25 mg/kg per day), 5·9% (1·8-10·1) of 1123 patients treated with an intermediate daily dose (approximately 0·5 mg/kg per day) and 10·9% (5·7-16·1) of 1178 patients treated with a high daily dose (approximately 1 mg/kg per day). 20 of 23 studies included in the efficacy analysis and 15 of 16 in the tolerability analysis had a low or unclear risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: Increasing the total dose of primaquine from 3·5 mg/kg to 7 mg/kg can reduce P vivax recurrences by more than 50% in most endemic regions, with a small associated increase in gastrointestinal symptoms. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medicines for Malaria Venture.
  • Item
    Thumbnail Image
    The relationship between markers of antenatal iron stores and birth outcomes differs by malaria prevention regimen-a prospective cohort study
    Unger, HW ; Longo, VL ; Bleicher, A ; Ome-Kaius, M ; Karl, S ; Simpson, JA ; Karahalios, A ; Aitken, EH ; Rogerson, SJ (BMC, 2021-10-05)
    BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) has been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, maternal anaemia, and altered susceptibility to infection. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), monthly treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine plus azithromycin (SPAZ) prevented low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) through a combination of anti-malarial and non-malarial effects when compared to a single treatment with SP plus chloroquine (SPCQ) at first antenatal visit. We assessed the relationship between ID and adverse birth outcomes in women receiving SPAZ or SPCQ, and the mediating effects of malaria infection and haemoglobin levels during pregnancy. METHODS: Plasma ferritin levels measured at antenatal enrolment in a cohort of 1892 women were adjusted for concomitant inflammation using C-reactive protein and α-1-acid glycoprotein. Associations of ID (defined as ferritin <15 μg/L) or ferritin levels with birth outcomes (birthweight, LBW, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age birthweight [SGA]) were determined using linear or logistic regression analysis, as appropriate. Mediation analysis assessed the degree of mediation of ID-birth outcome relationships by malaria infection or haemoglobin levels. RESULTS: At first antenatal visit (median gestational age, 22 weeks), 1256 women (66.4%) had ID. Overall, ID or ferritin levels at first antenatal visit were not associated with birth outcomes. There was effect modification by treatment arm. Amongst SPCQ recipients, ID was associated with a 81-g higher mean birthweight (95% confidence interval [CI] 10, 152; P = 0.025), and a twofold increase in ferritin levels was associated with increased odds of SGA (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.25; 95% CI 1.06, 1.46; P = 0.007). By contrast, amongst SPAZ recipients, a twofold increase in ferritin was associated with reduced odds of LBW (aOR 0.80; 95% CI 0.67, 0.94; P = 0.009). Mediation analyses suggested that malaria infection or haemoglobin levels during pregnancy do not substantially mediate the association of ID with birth outcomes amongst SPCQ recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Improved antenatal iron stores do not confer a benefit for the prevention of adverse birth outcomes in the context of malaria chemoprevention strategies that lack the non-malarial properties of monthly SPAZ. Research to determine the mechanisms by which ID protects from suboptimal foetal growth is needed to guide the design of new malaria prevention strategies and to inform iron supplementation policy in malaria-endemic settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01136850 .
  • Item
    Thumbnail Image
    Antibody Targets on the Surface of Plasmodium falciparum-Infected Erythrocytes That Are Associated With Immunity to Severe Malaria in Young Children
    Chan, J-A ; Boyle, MJ ; Moore, KA ; Reiling, L ; Lin, Z ; Hasang, W ; Avril, M ; Manning, L ; Mueller, I ; Laman, M ; Davis, T ; Smith, JD ; Rogerson, SJ ; Simpson, JA ; Fowkes, FJI ; Beeson, JG (Oxford University Press, 2019-03-01)
    BACKGROUND: Sequestration of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes (IEs) in the microvasculature contributes to pathogenesis of severe malaria in children. This mechanism is mediated by antigens expressed on the IE surface. However, knowledge of specific targets and functions of antibodies to IE surface antigens that protect against severe malaria is limited. METHODS: Antibodies to IE surface antigens were examined in a case-control study of young children in Papua New Guinea presenting with severe or uncomplicated malaria (n = 448), using isolates with a virulent phenotype associated with severe malaria, and functional opsonic phagocytosis assays. We used genetically modified isolates and recombinant P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) domains to quantify PfEMP1 as a target of antibodies associated with disease severity. RESULTS: Antibodies to the IE surface and recombinant PfEMP1 domains were significantly higher in uncomplicated vs severe malaria and were boosted following infection. The use of genetically modified P. falciparum revealed that PfEMP1 was a major target of antibodies and that PfEMP1-specific antibodies were associated with reduced odds of severe malaria. Furthermore, antibodies promoting the opsonic phagocytosis of IEs by monocytes were lower in those with severe malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that PfEMP1 is a dominant target of antibodies associated with reduced risk of severe malaria, and function in part by promoting opsonic phagocytosis.
  • Item
    No Preview Available
    The efficacy of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and artemether-lumefantrine with and without primaquine on Plasmodium vivax recurrence: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis
    Commons, RJ ; Simpson, JA ; Thriemer, K ; Abreha, T ; Adam, I ; Anstey, NM ; Assefa, A ; Awab, GR ; Baird, JK ; Barber, BE ; Chu, CS ; Dahal, P ; Daher, A ; Davis, TME ; Dondorp, AM ; Grigg, MJ ; Humphreys, GS ; Hwang, J ; Karunajeewa, H ; Laman, M ; Lidia, K ; Moore, BR ; Mueller, I ; Nosten, F ; Pasaribu, AP ; Pereira, DB ; Phyo, AP ; Poespoprodjo, JR ; Sibley, CH ; Stepniewska, K ; Sutanto, I ; Thwaites, G ; Hien, TT ; White, NJ ; William, T ; Woodrow, CJ ; Guerin, PJ ; Price, RN ; Menendez, C (PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2019-10)
    BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in areas of emerging chloroquine resistance. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the efficacies of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) with or without primaquine (PQ) on the risk of recurrent P. vivax. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Clinical efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. vivax treated with DP or AL and published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2018, were identified by conducting a systematic review registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42016053310. Investigators of eligible studies were invited to contribute individual patient data that were pooled using standardised methodology. The effect of mg/kg dose of piperaquine/lumefantrine, ACT administered, and PQ on the rate of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 42 after starting treatment were investigated by Cox regression analyses according to an a priori analysis plan. Secondary outcomes were the risk of recurrence assessed on days 28 and 63. Nineteen studies enrolling 2,017 patients were included in the analysis. The risk of recurrent P. vivax at day 42 was significantly higher in the 384 patients treated with AL alone (44.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 38.7-49.8) compared with the 812 patients treated with DP alone (9.3%, 95% CI 7.1-12.2): adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 12.63 (95% CI 6.40-24.92), p < 0.001. The rates of recurrence assessed at days 42 and 63 were associated inversely with the dose of piperaquine: AHRs (95% CI) for every 5-mg/kg increase 0.63 (0.48-0.84), p = 0.0013 and 0.83 (0.73-0.94), p = 0.0033, respectively. The dose of lumefantrine was not significantly associated with the rate of recurrence (1.07 for every 5-mg/kg increase, 95% CI 0.99-1.16, p = 0.0869). In a post hoc analysis, in patients with symptomatic recurrence after AL, the mean haemoglobin increased 0.13 g/dL (95% CI 0.01-0.26) for every 5 days that recurrence was delayed, p = 0.0407. Coadministration of PQ reduced substantially the rate of recurrence assessed at day 42 after AL (AHR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.10-0.41, p < 0.001) and at day 63 after DP (AHR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.70, p = 0.0233). Results were limited by follow-up of patients to 63 days or less and nonrandomised treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed the risk of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 to be significantly lower following treatment with DP compared with AL, reflecting the longer period of post-treatment prophylaxis; this risk was reduced substantially by coadministration with PQ. We found that delaying P. vivax recurrence was associated with a small but significant improvement in haemoglobin. These results highlight the benefits of PQ radical cure and also the provision of blood-stage antimalarial agents with prolonged post-treatment prophylaxis.
  • Item
    Thumbnail Image
    New Insights into Acquisition, Boosting, and Longevity of Immunity to Malaria in Pregnant Women
    Fowkes, FJI ; McGready, R ; Cross, NJ ; Hommel, M ; Simpson, JA ; Elliott, SR ; Richards, JS ; Lackovic, K ; Viladpai-Nguen, J ; Narum, D ; Tsuboi, T ; Anders, RF ; Nosten, F ; Beeson, JG (OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2012-11-15)
    BACKGROUND: How antimalarial antibodies are acquired and maintained during pregnancy and boosted after reinfection with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax is unknown. METHODS: A nested case-control study of 467 pregnant women (136 Plasmodium-infected cases and 331 uninfected control subjects) in northwestern Thailand was conducted. Antibody levels to P. falciparum and P. vivax merozoite antigens and the pregnancy-specific PfVAR2CSA antigen were determined at enrollment (median 10 weeks gestation) and throughout pregnancy until delivery. RESULTS: Antibodies to P. falciparum and P. vivax were highly variable over time, and maintenance of high levels of antimalarial antibodies involved highly dynamic responses resulting from intermittent exposure to infection. There was evidence of boosting with each successive infection for P. falciparum responses, suggesting the presence of immunological memory. However, the half-lives of Plasmodium antibody responses were relatively short, compared with measles (457 years), and much shorter for merozoite responses (0.8-7.6 years), compared with PfVAR2CSA responses (36-157 years). The longer half-life of antibodies to PfVAR2CSA suggests that antibodies acquired in one pregnancy may be maintained to protect subsequent pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may have important practical implications for predicting the duration of vaccine-induced responses by candidate antigens and supports the development of malaria vaccines to protect pregnant women.
  • Item
    Thumbnail Image
    Maternal-foetal transfer of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax antibodies in a low transmission setting
    Charnaud, SC ; McGready, R ; Herten-Crabb, A ; Powell, R ; Guy, A ; Langer, C ; Richards, JS ; Gilson, PR ; Chotivanich, K ; Tsuboi, T ; Narum, DL ; Pimanpanarak, M ; Simpson, JA ; Beeson, JG ; Nosten, F ; Fowkes, FJI (NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2016-02-10)
    During pregnancy immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies are transferred from mother to neonate across the placenta. Studies in high transmission areas have shown transfer of P. falciparum-specific IgG, but the extent and factors influencing maternal-foetal transfer in low transmission areas co-endemic for both P. falciparum and P. vivax are unknown. Pregnant women were screened weekly for Plasmodium infection. Mother-neonate paired serum samples at delivery were tested for IgG to antigens from P. falciparum, P. vivax and other infectious diseases. Antibodies to malarial and non-malarial antigens were highly correlated between maternal and neonatal samples (median [range] spearman ρ = 0.78 [0.57-0.93]), although Plasmodium spp. antibodies tended to be lower in neonates than mothers. Estimated gestational age at last P. falciparum infection, but not P. vivax infection, was positively associated with antibody levels in the neonate (P. falciparum merozoite, spearman ρ median [range] 0.42 [0.33-0.66], PfVAR2CSA 0.69; P. vivax ρ = 0.19 [0.09-0.3]). Maternal-foetal transfer of anti-malarial IgG to Plasmodium spp. antigens occurs in low transmission settings. P. vivax IgG acquisition is not associated with recent exposure unlike P. falciparum IgG, suggesting a difference in acquisition of antibodies. IgG transfer is greatest in the final weeks of pregnancy which has implications for the timing of future malaria vaccination strategies in pregnant women.
  • Item
    No Preview Available
    The risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia after P. falciparum malaria: An individual patient data meta-analysis from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network
    Hossain, MS ; Commons, RJ ; Douglas, NM ; Thriemer, K ; Alemayehu, BH ; Amaratunga, C ; Anvikar, AR ; Ashley, EA ; Asih, PBS ; Carrara, VI ; Lon, C ; D'Alessandro, U ; Davis, TME ; Dondorp, AM ; Edstein, MD ; Fairhurst, RM ; Ferreira, MU ; Hwang, J ; Janssens, B ; Karunajeewa, H ; Kiechel, JR ; Ladeia-Andrade, S ; Laman, M ; Mayxay, M ; McGready, R ; Moore, BR ; Mueller, I ; Newton, PN ; Thuy-Nhien, NT ; Noedl, H ; Nosten, F ; Phyo, AP ; Poespoprodjo, JR ; Saunders, DL ; Smithuis, F ; Spring, MD ; Stepniewska, K ; Suon, S ; Suputtamongkol, Y ; Syafruddin, D ; Tran, HT ; Valecha, N ; Van Herp, M ; Van Vugt, M ; White, NJ ; Guerin, PJ ; Simpson, JA ; Price, RN ; Beeson, JG (PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2020)
    BACKGROUND: There is a high risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia following treatment of falciparum malaria. Our study aimed to quantify this risk and the associated determinants using an individual patient data meta-analysis in order to identify populations in which a policy of universal radical cure, combining artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a hypnozoitocidal antimalarial drug, would be beneficial. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews identified efficacy studies of uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with ACT that were undertaken in regions coendemic for P. vivax between 1 January 1960 and 5 January 2018. Data from eligible studies were pooled using standardised methodology. The risk of P. vivax parasitaemia at days 42 and 63 and associated risk factors were investigated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. Study quality was assessed using a tool developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42018097400). In total, 42 studies enrolling 15,341 patients were included in the analysis, including 30 randomised controlled trials and 12 cohort studies. Overall, 14,146 (92.2%) patients had P. falciparum monoinfection and 1,195 (7.8%) mixed infection with P. falciparum and P. vivax. The median age was 17.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 9.0-29.0 years; range = 0-80 years), with 1,584 (10.3%) patients younger than 5 years. 2,711 (17.7%) patients were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (AL, 13 studies), 651 (4.2%) with artesunate-amodiaquine (AA, 6 studies), 7,340 (47.8%) with artesunate-mefloquine (AM, 25 studies), and 4,639 (30.2%) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, 16 studies). 14,537 patients (94.8%) were enrolled from the Asia-Pacific region, 684 (4.5%) from the Americas, and 120 (0.8%) from Africa. At day 42, the cumulative risk of vivax parasitaemia following treatment of P. falciparum was 31.1% (95% CI 28.9-33.4) after AL, 14.1% (95% CI 10.8-18.3) after AA, 7.4% (95% CI 6.7-8.1) after AM, and 4.5% (95% CI 3.9-5.3) after DP. By day 63, the risks had risen to 39.9% (95% CI 36.6-43.3), 42.4% (95% CI 34.7-51.2), 22.8% (95% CI 21.2-24.4), and 12.8% (95% CI 11.4-14.5), respectively. In multivariable analyses, the highest rate of P. vivax parasitaemia over 42 days of follow-up was in patients residing in areas of short relapse periodicity (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 6.2, 95% CI 2.0-19.5; p = 0.002); patients treated with AL (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI 4.6-8.5; p < 0.001), AA (AHR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.7; p = 0.001), or AM (AHR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.9; p = 0.028) compared with DP; and patients who did not clear their initial parasitaemia within 2 days (AHR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3; p < 0.001). The analysis was limited by heterogeneity between study populations and lack of data from very low transmission settings. Study quality was high. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, we found a high risk of P. vivax parasitaemia after treatment of P. falciparum malaria that varied significantly between studies. These P. vivax infections are likely attributable to relapses that could be prevented with radical cure including a hypnozoitocidal agent; however, the benefits of such a novel strategy will vary considerably between geographical areas.
  • Item
    Thumbnail Image
    Competing risk events in antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network individual participant data meta-analysis
    Dahal, P ; Simpson, JA ; Abdulla, S ; Achan, J ; Adam, I ; Agarwal, A ; Allan, R ; Anvikar, AR ; Arinaitwe, E ; Ashley, EA ; Awab, GR ; Bassat, Q ; Bjorkman, A ; Bompart, F ; Borrmann, S ; Bousema, T ; Broek, I ; Bukirwa, H ; Carrara, VI ; Corsi, M ; Cot, M ; D'Alessandro, U ; Davis, TME ; de Wit, M ; Deloron, P ; Desai, M ; Dimbu, PR ; Djalle, D ; Djimde, A ; Dorsey, G ; Doumbo, OK ; Drakeley, CJ ; Duparc, S ; Edstein, MD ; Espie, E ; Faiz, A ; Falade, C ; Fanello, C ; Faucher, J-F ; Faye, B ; Fortes, FDJ ; Gadalla, NB ; Gaye, O ; Gil, JP ; Greenwood, B ; Grivoyannis, A ; Hamed, K ; Hien, TT ; Hughes, D ; Humphreys, G ; Hwang, J ; Ibrahim, ML ; Janssens, B ; Jullien, V ; Juma, E ; Kamugisha, E ; Karema, C ; Karunajeewa, HA ; Kiechel, JR ; Kironde, F ; Kofoed, P-E ; Kremsner, PG ; Lameyre, V ; Lee, SJ ; Marsh, K ; Martensson, A ; Mayxay, M ; Menan, H ; Mens, P ; Mutabingwa, TK ; Ndiaye, J-L ; Ngasala, BE ; Noedl, H ; Nosten, F ; Offianan, AT ; Oguike, M ; Ogutu, BR ; Olliaro, P ; Ouedraogo, JB ; Piola, P ; Plowe, CV ; Plucinski, MM ; Pratt, OJ ; Premji, Z ; Ramharter, M ; Rogier, C ; Rombo, L ; Rosenthal, PJ ; Sawa, P ; Schramm, B ; Sibley, C ; Sinou, V ; Sirima, S ; Smithuis, F ; Staedke, SG ; Sutanto, I ; Talisuna, AO ; Tarning, J ; Taylor, WRJ ; Temu, E ; Thriemer, KL ; Thuy, NN ; Udhayakumar, V ; Ursing, J ; van Herp, M ; van Vugt, M ; Whitty, C ; William, Y ; Winnips, C ; Zongo, I ; Guerin, P ; Price, RN ; Stepniewska, K (BMC, 2019-07-05)
    BACKGROUND: Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections. METHODS: Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model. RESULTS: Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.