Melbourne Business School - Research Publications
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ItemA comparison of Online and offline consumer brand loyalty(INFORMS, 2003-01-01)In this study we compare consumer brand loyalty in online and traditional shopping environments for over 100 brands in 19 grocery product categories. The online purchase data come from a large traditional grocery retailer that also operates an online store for its products. The offline data corresponds to the exact same brands and categories bought in traditional stores by a panel of homes operated by ACNielsen for purchases made in the same city and over the same time period. We compare the observed loyalty with a baseline model, a new segmented Dirichlet model, which has latent classes for brand choice and provides a very accurate model for purchase behavior. The results show that observed brand loyalty for high market share brands bought online is significantly greater than expected, with the reverse result for small share brands. In contrast, in the traditional shopping environment, the difference between observed and predicted brand loyalty is not related to brand share.
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ItemThe effect of competitive advertising interference on sales for packaged goods(SAGE Publications, 2008-01-01)Competitive advertising interference can occur when viewers of advertising for a focal brand are also exposed to advertising messages for competing brands within a short period (e.g., one week for television advertising). Although competitive advertising interference has been shown to reduce advertising recall and recognition and brand evaluation measures, no studies have examined its impact on brand sales. In this research, the authors use a market response model of sales for two grocery categories for a large grocery chain in the Chicago area to study the extent to which competitive advertising interference influences sales. The model enables the authors to capture the “pure” own-brand advertising elasticities that would arise if there were no competitive interference. The results show that competitive interference effects on sales are strong. When one or more competing brands advertise in the same week as the focal brand, the advertising elasticity diminishes for the focal brand. The decrease depends on the number of competing brands advertising in a particular week and their total advertising volume. The authors find that having one more competitor advertise is often more harmful to a focal brand's advertising effectiveness than if the current number of advertising brands increase their total advertising volume.
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ItemFactors affecting Web site visit duration: A cross-domain analysis(SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2006-05)In this study, the authors examine factors that affect Web site visit duration, including user demographics, text and graphics content, type of site, presence of functionality features, advertising content, and the number of previous visits. The authors use a random effects model to determine the impact of these factors on site duration and the number of pages viewed. The proposed method accounts for three distinct sources of heterogeneity that arise from differences among people, Web sites, and visit occasions to the same Web site by the same person. The model is fit using one month of user-centric panel data, and it encompasses the 50 most popular sites in a market. The results show that, in general, older people and women visit Web sites for a longer period. Some surprising results are revealed in an examination of interactions between these demographic and site characteristic variables. For example, sites with higher levels of advertising usually result in lower visit duration, but this is not the case for older people. The model also yields insights into the relative importance of different sources of heterogeneity in visit duration; heterogeneity in visit occasions dominates over individual-level and Web site-specific heterogeneity.
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ItemModeling page views across multiple websites with an application to Internet reach and frequency prediction(INFORMS, 2007-05-01)In this study, we develop a multivariate generalization of the negative binomial distribution (NBD). This new model has potential application to situations where separate NBDs are correlated, such as for page views across multiple websites. In turn, our page view model is used to predict the audience for Internet advertising campaigns. For very large Internet advertising schedules, a simple approximation to the multivariate model is also derived. In a test of nearly 3,000 Internet advertising schedules, the two new models are compared with some proprietary and nonproprietary models previously used for Internet advertising and are shown to be significantly more accurate.