Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology - Research Publications
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ItemImpact of sex on prognostic host factors in surgical patients with lung cancer(WILEY, 2017-12)BACKGROUND: Lung cancer has markedly poorer survival in men. Recognized important prognostic factors are divided into host, tumour and environmental factors. Traditional staging systems that use only tumour factors to predict prognosis are of limited accuracy. By examining sex-based patterns of disease-specific survival in non-small cell lung cancer patients, we determined the effect of sex on the prognostic value of additional host factors. METHODS: Two cohorts of patients treated surgically with curative intent between 2000 and 2009 were utilized. The primary cohort was from Melbourne, Australia, with an independent validation set from the American Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses of validated host-related prognostic factors were performed in both cohorts to investigate the differences in survival between men and women. RESULTS: The Melbourne cohort had 605 patients (61% men) and SEER cohort comprised 55 681 patients (51% men). Disease-specific 5-year survival showed men had statistically significant poorer survival in both cohorts (P < 0.001); Melbourne men at 53.2% compared with women at 68.3%, and SEER 53.3% men and 62.0% women were alive at 5 years. Being male was independently prognostic for disease-specific mortality in the Melbourne cohort after adjustment for ethnicity, smoking history, performance status, age, pathological stage and histology (hazard ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-2.16, P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences in non-small cell lung cancer are important irrespective of age, ethnicity, smoking, performance status and tumour, node and metastasis stage. Epidemiological findings such as these should be translated into research and clinical paradigms to determine the factors that influence the survival disadvantage experienced by men.
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ItemSurvival difference according to mutation status in a prospective cohort study of Australian patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung carcinoma(WILEY, 2018-01)BACKGROUND: Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a heterogeneous disease comprising not only different histological subtypes but also different molecular subtypes. AIM: To describe the frequency of oncogenic drivers in patients with metastatic NSCLC, the proportion of patients tested and survival difference according to mutation status in a single-institution study. METHODS: Metastatic NSCLC patients enrolled in a prospective Thoracic Malignancies Cohort Study between July 2012 and August 2016 were selected. Patients underwent molecular testing for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangements, Kirsten rat sarcoma (KRAS), B-Raf proto-oncogene (BRAF) mutations and ROS1 gene rearrangements. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method for groups of interest, and comparisons were made using the log-rank test. RESULTS: A total of 392 patients were included, 43% of whom were female with median age of 64 years (28-92). Of 296 patients tested, 172 patients (58%) were positive for an oncogenic driver: 81 patients (27%) were EGFR positive, 25 patients (9%) were ALK positive, 57 patients (19%) had KRAS mutation and 9 patients (3%) were ROS1 or BRAF positive. Patients with an actionable mutation (EGFR/ALK) had a survival advantage when compared with patients who were mutation negative (hazard ratio (HR) 0.49; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33-0.71; P < 0.01). Survival difference between mutation negative and mutation status unknown was not statistically significant when adjusted for confounding factors in a multivariate analysis (HR 1.29; 95% CI 0.97-1.78, P = 0.08). CONCLUSION: In this prospective cohort, the presence of an actionable mutation was the strongest predictor of overall survival. These results confirm the importance of molecular testing and suggest likely survival benefit of identification and treatment of actionable oncogenes.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableAbsence of a Relationship between Tumor 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose Standardized Uptake Value and Survival in Patients Treated with Definitive Radiotherapy for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer(LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS, 2014-03)INTRODUCTION: A recent meta-analysis suggested that patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose primary tumors have a higher standardized uptake value (SUV) derived from F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) have a worse prognosis in comparison with those with tumors with lower values. However, previous analyses have had methodological weaknesses. Furthermore, the prognostic significance over the full range of SUV values in patients treated nonsurgically remains unclear. The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the relationship between survival and maximum SUV (SUV(max)) analyzed as a continuous variable, in patients with NSCLC, staged using PET/computed tomography (CT) and treated with radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. METHODS: Eligible patients had a histological diagnosis of NSCLC, were treated with radical radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy as their primary treatment, and had pretreatment PET/CT scans. SUV(max), defined as the maximum pixel SUV value retrieved from the primary tumor, was analyzed primarily as a continuous variable for overall survival. RESULTS: Eighty-eight patients met eligibility criteria: stage I, 19; stage II, 10; and stage III, 59. Median SUV(max) was 15.0 (range, 2.5-56). Higher stage was associated with higher SUV(max) values (p = 0.048). In univariate analysis, there was no evidence of a prognostic effect of SUV(max) (hazard ratio per doubling = 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.11; p = 0.22). Analyzing SUV(max) as a dichotomous variable (median cut point = 15.0), the hazard ratio (high: low) for risk of death was 0.71, with p = 0.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-1.15). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients, increasing SUV(max) derived from F-fluorodeoxyglucose-PET/CT was associated with increasing tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) stage. We found no evidence of an association of increasing SUV(max) with a shorter survival. Previous reports of an association between prognosis and SUV(max) may partly be the result of methodological differences between this study and previous reports and an association between stage and SUV(max).
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ItemSpleen Volume Variation in Patients with Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Platinum-Based Chemo-Radiotherapy(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2015-11-24)There is renewed interest in the immune regulatory role of the spleen in oncology. To date, very few studies have examined macroscopic variations of splenic volume in the setting of cancer, prior to or during therapy, especially in humans. Changes in splenic volume may be associated with changes in splenic function. The purpose of this study was to investigate variations in spleen volume in NSCLC patients during chemo-radiotherapy. Sixty patients with stage I-IIIB NSCLC underwent radiotherapy (60 Gy/30 fractions) for six weeks with concomitant carboplatin/paclitaxel (Ca/P; n = 32) or cisplatin/etoposide (Ci/E; n = 28). A baseline PET/CT scan was performed within 2 weeks prior to treatment and during Weeks 2 and 4 of chemo-radiotherapy. Spleen volume was measured by contouring all CT slices. Significant macroscopic changes in splenic volume occurred early after the commencement of treatment. A significant decrease in spleen volume was observed for 66% of Ca/P and 79% of Ci/E patients between baseline and Week 2. Spleen volume was decreased by 14.2% for Ca/P (p<0.001) and 19.3% for Ci/E (p<0.001) patients. By Week 4, spleen volume was still significantly decreased for Ca/P patients compared to baseline, while for Ci/E patients, spleen volume returned to above baseline levels. This is the first report demonstrating macroscopic changes in the spleen in NSCLC patients undergoing radical chemo-radiotherapy that can be visualized by non-invasive imaging.
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ItemLung cancer prognostic index: a risk score to predict overall survival after the diagnosis of non-small-cell lung cancer(NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2017-08-22)INTRODUCTION: Non-small-cell lung cancer outcomes are poor but heterogeneous, even within stage groups. To improve prognostic precision we aimed to develop and validate a simple prognostic model using patient and disease variables. METHODS: Prospective registry and study data were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression to derive a prognostic model (hospital 1, n=695), which was subsequently tested (Harrell's c-statistic for discrimination and Cox-Snell residuals for calibration) in two independent validation cohorts (hospital 2, n=479 and hospital 3, n=284). RESULTS: The derived Lung Cancer Prognostic Index (LCPI) included stage, histology, mutation status, performance status, weight loss, smoking history, respiratory comorbidity, sex, and age. Two-year overall survival rates according to LCPI in the derivation and two validation cohorts, respectively, were 84, 77, and 68% (LCPI 1: score⩽9); 61, 61, and 42% (LCPI 2: score 10-13); 33, 32, and 14% (LCPI 3: score 14-16); 7, 16, and 5% (LCPI 4: score ⩾15). Discrimination (c-statistic) was 0.74 for the derivation cohort, 0.72 and 0.71 for the two validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LCPI contributes additional prognostic information, which may be used to counsel patients, guide trial eligibility or design, or standardise mortality risk for epidemiological analyses.
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ItemDynamic Thromboembolic Risk Modelling to Target Appropriate Preventative Strategies for Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer(MDPI, 2019-01)Prevention of cancer-associated thromboembolism (TE) remains a significant clinical challenge and priority world-wide safety initiative. In this prospective non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohort, longitudinal TE risk profiling (clinical and biomarker) was undertaken to develop risk stratification models for targeted TE prevention. These were compared with published models from Khorana, CATS, PROTECHT, CONKO, and CATS/MICA. The NSCLC cohort of 129 patients, median follow-up 22.0 months (range 5.6-31.3), demonstrated a hypercoagulable profile in >75% patients and TE incidence of 19%. High TE risk patients were those receiving chemotherapy with baseline fibrinogen ≥ 4 g/L and d-dimer ≥ 0.5 mg/L; or baseline d-dimer ≥ 1.5 mg/L; or month 1 d-dimer ≥ 1.5 mg/L. The model predicted TE with 100% sensitivity and 34% specificity (c-index 0.67), with TE incidence 27% vs. 0% for high vs. low-risk. A comparison using the Khorana, PROTECHT, and CONKO methods were not discriminatory; TE incidence 17⁻25% vs. 14⁻19% for high vs. low-risk (c-index 0.51⁻0.59). Continuous d-dimer (CATS/MICA model) was also not predictive of TE. Independent of tumour stage, high TE risk was associated with cancer progression (HR 1.9, p = 0.01) and mortality (HR 2.2, p = 0.02). The model was tested for scalability in a prospective gastrointestinal cancer cohort with equipotency demonstrated; 80% sensitivity and 39% specificity. This proposed TE risk prediction model is simple, practical, potent and can be used in the clinic for real-time, decision-making for targeted thromboprophylaxis. Validation in a multicentre randomised interventional study is underway (ACTRN12618000811202).