Surgery (RMH) - Research Publications
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ItemLifetime Risk of Primary Total Hip Replacement Surgery for Osteoarthritis From 2003 to 2013: A Multinational Analysis Using National Registry Data(WILEY, 2017-11)OBJECTIVE: To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement (THR) surgery for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. METHODS: Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Life tables and population data were also obtained for each country. Lifetime risk of THR was calculated for 2003 and 2013 using registry, life table, and population data. RESULTS: In 2003, lifetime risk of THR ranged from 8.7% (Denmark) to 15.9% (Norway) for females, and from 6.3% (Denmark) to 8.6% (Finland) for males. With the exception of females in Norway (where lifetime risk started and remained high), lifetime risk of THR increased significantly for both sexes in all countries from 2003 to 2013. In 2013, lifetime risk of THR was as high as 1 in 7 women in Norway, and 1 in 10 men in Finland. Females consistently demonstrated the highest lifetime risk of THR at both time points. Notably, lifetime risk for females in Norway was approximately double the risk for males in 2003 (females 15.9% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 15.6-16.1], males 6.9% [95% CI 6.7-7.1]), and 2013 (females 16.0% [95% CI 15.8-16.3], males 8.3% [95% CI 8.1-8.5]). CONCLUSION: Using representative, population-based data, this study found statistically significant increases in the lifetime risk of THR in 5 countries over a 10-year period, and substantial between-sex differences. These multinational risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery.
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ItemThe projected burden of primary total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in Australia to the year 2030(BMC, 2019-02-23)BACKGROUND: Comprehensive national joint replacement registries with well-validated data offer unique opportunities for examining the potential future burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) at a population level. This study aimed to forecast the burden of primary total knee (TKR) and hip replacements (THR) performed for OA in Australia to the year 2030, and to model the impact of contrasting obesity scenarios on TKR burden. METHODS: De-identified TKR and THR data for 2003-2013 were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population projections and obesity trends were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with public and private hospital costs sourced from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection. Procedure rates were projected according to two scenarios: (1) constant rate of surgery from 2013 onwards; and (2) continued growth in surgery rates based on 2003-2013 growth. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate future TKR burden if: (1) obesity rates continued to increase linearly; or (2) 1-5% of the overweight or obese population attained a normal body mass index. RESULTS: Based on recent growth, the incidence of TKR and THR for OA is estimated to rise by 276% and 208%, respectively, by 2030. The total cost to the healthcare system would be $AUD5.32 billion, of which $AUD3.54 billion relates to the private sector. Projected growth in obesity rates would result in 24,707 additional TKRs totalling $AUD521 million. A population-level reduction in obesity could result in up to 8062 fewer procedures and cost savings of up to $AUD170 million. CONCLUSIONS: If surgery trends for OA continue, Australia faces an unsustainable joint replacement burden by 2030, with significant healthcare budget and health workforce implications. Strategies to reduce national obesity could produce important TKR savings.