Finance - Research Publications
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ItemClosing Mechanisms in European Equities(The University of Melbourne, 2023-06-01)This paper examines end-of-day trading mechanisms in European equity markets. Over the period January 2021 to September 2022, closing mechanisms account for around 18% of consolidated Euro volume in STOXX 600 stocks. Only continuous lit trading accounts for a larger fraction of activity. The high share of activity at the close is attributed to a range of factors including increases in assets under management in index and quantitative investment strategies and in Exchange Traded Funds. Closing mechanisms exhibit notably higher market share on rebalance and month-end days. The market share of closing mechanisms increases to 40% and 30% on rebalance and month-end days, respectively. These increases are likely due to benchmarking practices of index and other institutional traders. The market share of closing mechanisms decreases significantly on volatile and less liquid days. Increased activity in closing auctions has focused attention on the typically higher cost of trading in primary exchange closing auctions. Alternative closing mechanisms have emerged to compete with primary exchange auctions. Despite the emergence of competing venues, primary exchange closing auctions continue to capture the lion’s share of closing volume, representing about 84% of all closing activity. Why have alternative closing mechanisms failed to attract significant trading volume despite offering cheaper services? And why have some alternative mechanisms been more successful than others? The answers to these questions lie in the differing perspectives of market participants about the potential impact of fragmentation at the close, the ability to capture the benefits of the lower fees, and differences in the market structure of the mechanisms.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableDissecting the listing gap: Mergers, private equity, or regulation?(Elsevier BV, 2023-05)The abnormal decline in the number of U.S. public firms is often blamed on merger activity, private equity investments, and stock market regulations. We compare the effects of these channels in a unified framework. In the U.S., an extra 100 mergers is associated with 22.01 additional missing public firms, whereas an extra 100 PE deals is associated with 3.62 fewer missing public firms. Regulatory changes contribute to the decline of U.S. listings too. We also specify the types of deals that most strongly affect listings. Finally, we document that similar listing gaps emerge in other developed economies.
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ItemThe effect of action contingency on social perception is independent of person-like appearance and is related to deactivation of the frontal component of the self-agency network.(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-10-15)The detection of object movement that is contingent on one's own actions (i.e., movements with action contingency) influences social perception of the object; such interactive objects tend to create a good impression. However, it remains unclear whether neural representation of action contingency is associated with subsequent socio-cognitive evaluation of "contacting agents", or whether the appearance of agents (e.g., face- or non-face-like avatars) is essential for this effect. In this study, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) task with two phases: contact (contact with face- or non-face-like avatars moving contingently or non-contingently) and recognition (rating a static image of each avatar). Deactivation of the frontoparietal self-agency network and activation of the reward network were the main effects of action contingency during the contact phase, consistent with previous findings. During the recognition phase, static avatars that had previously moved in a contingent manner deactivated the frontal component of the frontoparietal network (bilateral insula and inferior-middle frontal gyri), regardless of person-like appearance. Our results imply that frontal deactivation may underlie the effect of action contingency on subsequent social perception, independent of person-like appearance.
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ItemRetail Trading in European Equity Markets(University of Melbourne, Faculty of Business and Economics, 2023)Recent growth in retail trading in global equity markets has drawn considerable attention to the execution of retail flows. European market operators offer diverse retail trading mechanisms: both retail-specific mechanisms and all-to-all trading mechanisms that allow the interaction of all trader types. Retail-specific trading mechanisms are categorized into Single Market Maker and Competing Market Maker mechanisms. Markets also differ on other dimensions such as the way market makers compete, the number of reference markets, order flow segmentation, explicit costs, and Payment for Order Flow (PFOF). Using the findings from the existing literature this paper argues in favor of competition between market makers, the use of a consolidated market view as the reference price and less segmentation. It also raises questions about potential conflicts arising from low or zero explicit costs and PFOF. The paper also recommends that policy makers can improve retail execution quality by requiring additional transparency around retail trades and implementing a consolidated tape.
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ItemInsider trading(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023)This paper describes a dataset capturing insider trading activity at publicly traded companies. Investors and investment analysts demand this information because executives, directors and large shareholders are expected to have more intimate knowledge of their company’s prospects than outsiders. Insider stock sales and purchases may reveal information about the firm’s business not disclosed in financial statements. They may also convey new information predictive of stock price movements if insiders can better interpret public information about the firm. Since mid-2003, the Securities and Exchange Commission has made these insider trading reports available to the public in a structured format; however, most academic papers use proprietary commercial databases instead of regulatory filings directly. This makes replication challenging as the data manipulation and aggregation processes are opaque and historical records could be altered by the database provider over time. To overcome these limitations, the presented dataset is created from original regulatory filings; it is updated daily and includes all information reported by insiders without alteration.
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ItemPermanent private equity: Market performance and transactions(WILEY, 2022-06)Abstract Using market data for a comprehensive sample of publicly listed permanent capital private equity funds, I confirm existing results in the private equity literature and establish new empirical facts for private equity investments. Over 2000–2019, only mezzanine funds outperformed public markets, whereas buyout, growth, and funds of funds underperformed somewhat, and venture capital funds underperformed significantly. Buyout funds exhibit performance persistence. Larger funds with higher asset turnover have higher performance, and funds with higher expenses have lower performance. Finally, contemporaneous and out‐of‐sample performance of buyout and mezzanine funds is associated with deal and exit transaction characteristics.
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ItemForecasting variance swap payoffs(WILEY, 2022-12-01)Abstract We investigate the predictability of payoffs from selling variance swaps on the S&P500, US 10‐year treasuries, gold, and crude oil. In‐sample analysis shows that structural breaks are an important feature when modeling payoffs, and hence the ex post variance risk premium. Out‐of‐sample tests, on the other hand, reveal that structural break models do not improve forecast performance relative to simpler linear (or state invariant) models. We show that a host of variables that had previously been shown to forecast excess returns for the four asset classes, contain predictive power for ex post realizations of the respective variance risk premia as well. We also find that models fit directly to payoffs perform as well or better than models that combine the current variance swap rate with a realized variance forecast. These novel findings have important implications for variance swap sellers, and investors seeking to include volatility as an asset in their portfolio.
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ItemTask-independent metrics of computational hardness predict human cognitive performance(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2022-07-28)The survival of human organisms depends on our ability to solve complex tasks in the face of limited cognitive resources. However, little is known about the factors that drive the complexity of those tasks. Here, building on insights from computational complexity theory, we quantify the computational hardness of cognitive tasks using a set of task-independent metrics related to the computational resource requirements of individual instances of a task. We then examine the relation between those metrics and human behavior and find that they predict both time spent on a task as well as accuracy in three canonical cognitive tasks. Our findings demonstrate that performance in cognitive tasks can be predicted based on generic metrics of their inherent computational hardness.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableCaloric Primary Rewards Systematically Alter Time Perception( 2017-04-26)Human time perception can be influenced by contextual factors, such as the presence of reward. Yet, the exact nature of the relationship between time perception and reward has not been conclusively characterized. We implemented a novel experimental paradigm to measure estimations of time across a range of suprasecond intervals, during the anticipation and after the consumption of fruit juice, a physiologically relevant primary reward. We show that average time estimations were systematically affected by the consumption of reward, but not by the anticipation of reward. Compared with baseline estimations of time, reward consumption was associated with subsequent overproductions of time, and this effect increased for larger magnitudes of reward. Additional experiments demonstrated that the effect of consumption did not extend to a secondary reward (money), a tasteless, noncaloric primary reward (water), or a sweet, noncaloric reward (aspartame). However, a tasteless caloric reward (maltodexrin) did induce overproductions of time, although this effect did not scale with reward magnitude. These results suggest that the consumption of caloric primary rewards can alter time perception, which may be a psychophysiological mechanism by which organisms regulate homeostatic balance.
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ItemInferences regarding oneself and others in the human brain.(Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2022-05)The human brain can infer one's own and other individuals' mental states through metacognition and mentalizing, respectively. A new study in PLOS Biology has implicated distinct brain regions of the medial prefrontal cortex (PFC) in metacognition and mentalizing.