Finance - Research Publications
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ItemAnalysts’ recommendation changes or disagreements with market consensus: from which signal does the market take its lead?(European Financial Management Association, 2007)
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ItemAnalysts' recommendations: from which signal does the market take its lead?(SPRINGER, 2009-08-01)
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ItemFund Size, Transaction Costs and Performance: Size Matters!(UNIV NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTR GRAD SCH MANAGEMENT, 2009-06-01)Recent studies find evidence that small funds outperform large funds. This fund size effect is commonly hypothesized to be caused by transaction costs. Due to the lack of transactions data, prior studies have investigated the transaction costs theory indirectly. Our study, however, analyses the daily transactions of active Australian equity managers and finds aggregate market impact costs incurred by large managers are significantly greater than those incurred by small managers. Furthermore, we show large managers exhibit preferences for trade package formation and portfolio characteristics consistent with transaction cost intimidation. We analyse the interaction between transaction cost intimidation and the fund size effect, and document that large managers pursuing a highly active trading strategy suffer more from fund size, than large funds following a more passive strategy. This suggests the fund size effect is related to transaction costs, as trading activity is a good proxy for expected market impact. Finally, based on a simulation experiment, we find that transaction cost intimidation is at least as important as the increase in market impact costs due to fund size.
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ItemThe effects of forecast specificity on the asymmetric short-window share market response to management earnings forecasts(Emerald, 2009-09-13)Purpose This study aims to test the effects of forecast specificity on the asymmetric short‐window share market response to management earnings forecasts (MEF). Design/methodology/approach The paper examines a large sample of hand‐checked Australian data over the period 1994 to 2001. Using an analyst news benchmark, it estimates a series of regressions to investigate whether the short‐term impact from bad news announcements is greater in magnitude than from good news announcements and whether this differs between routine and non‐routine MEFs. Additionally, it examines whether (after controlling for news content of MEF) there is a differential market impact conditional on specificity: minimum versus maximum versus range versus point. Findings The results indicate that an asymmetric response is evident for the overall sample and a sub‐set of non‐routine forecasts. Contrary to predictions, the results show that forecast specificity, minimum, maximum, range and point MEFs make no additional contribution to the differences in the market reaction to bad or good news. Originality/value The study extends the research investigating the short‐run market impact of MEFs. The main element of innovation derives from the interaction between specificity and news content, as well as distinguishing between routine versus non‐routine cases. Notably, it found little support for the view that more specific forecasts elicit greater market responses. What the results do suggest is that managers appear to choose the form of the forecast to suit the news being delivered. In particular, bad news delivered in a minimum forecast seems to be ignored by the market.
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ItemAre the Fama-French factors proxying default risk?(UNIV NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTR GRAD SCH MANAGEMENT, 2007-12-01)In this paper we investigate the contention that the Fama-French (1993) model's ability to explain cross-sectional variation in equity returns occurs because the Fama-French factors, SMB and HML, are proxying for default risk. To assess the default risk hypothesis, we augment the CAPM and the Fama-French model with a default factor and run system regressions of the default enhanced models using the GMM approach. Our key findings are that: 1) default risk is not priced in equity returns; and, 2) the Fama-French factors are not proxying for default risk. Although our findings suggest that SMB and HML are not proxying for default risk, our analysis indicates that the Fama-French factors are capturing some form of priced risk However, what type of risk the Fama-French factors are capturing remains an open question.
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