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ItemTask-independent metrics of computational hardness predict human cognitive performance(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2022-07-28)The survival of human organisms depends on our ability to solve complex tasks in the face of limited cognitive resources. However, little is known about the factors that drive the complexity of those tasks. Here, building on insights from computational complexity theory, we quantify the computational hardness of cognitive tasks using a set of task-independent metrics related to the computational resource requirements of individual instances of a task. We then examine the relation between those metrics and human behavior and find that they predict both time spent on a task as well as accuracy in three canonical cognitive tasks. Our findings demonstrate that performance in cognitive tasks can be predicted based on generic metrics of their inherent computational hardness.
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ItemUncertainty and computational complexity(Royal Society, The, 2018-12-31)Modern theories of decision-making typically model uncertainty about decision options using the tools of probability theory. This is exemplified by the Savage framework, the most popular framework in decision-making research. There, decision-makers are assumed to choose from among available decision options as if they maximized subjective expected utility, which is given by the utilities of outcomes in different states weighted with subjective beliefs about the occurrence of those states. Beliefs are captured by probabilities and new information is incorporated using Bayes’ Law. The primary concern of the Savage framework is to ensure that decision-makers’ choices are rational. Here, we use concepts from computational complexity theory to expose two major weaknesses of the framework. Firstly, we argue that in most situations, subjective utility maximization is computationally intractable, which means that the Savage axioms are implausible. We discuss empirical evidence supporting this claim. Secondly, we argue that there exist many decision situations in which the nature of uncertainty is such that (random) sampling in combination with Bayes’ Law is an ineffective strategy to reduce uncertainty. We discuss several implications of these weaknesses from both an empirical and a normative perspective.
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ItemSeparating Probability and Reversal Learning in a Novel Probabilistic Reversal Learning Task for Mice(Frontiers Media SA, 2020-01-09)The exploration/exploitation tradeoff – pursuing a known reward vs. sampling from lesser known options in the hope of finding a better payoff – is a fundamental aspect of learning and decision making. In humans, this has been studied using multi-armed bandit tasks. The same processes have also been studied using simplified probabilistic reversal learning (PRL) tasks with binary choices. Our investigations suggest that protocols previously used to explore PRL in mice may prove beyond their cognitive capacities, with animals performing at a no-better-than-chance level. We sought a novel probabilistic learning task to improve behavioral responding in mice, whilst allowing the investigation of the exploration/exploitation tradeoff in decision making. To achieve this, we developed a two-lever operant chamber task with levers corresponding to different probabilities (high/low) of receiving a saccharin reward, reversing the reward contingencies associated with levers once animals reached a threshold of 80% responding at the high rewarding lever. We found that, unlike in existing PRL tasks, mice are able to learn and behave near optimally with 80% high/20% low reward probabilities. Altering the reward contingencies towards equality showed that some mice displayed preference for the high rewarding lever with probabilities as close as 60% high/40% low. Additionally, we show that animal choice behavior can be effectively modelled using reinforcement learning (RL) models incorporating learning rates for positive and negative prediction error, a perseveration parameter, and a noise parameter. This new decision task, coupled with RL analyses, advances access to investigate the neuroscience of the exploration/exploitation tradeoff in decision making.
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ItemHow Humans Solve Complex Problems: The Case of the Knapsack Problem(Nature, 2016-10-07)Life presents us with problems of varying complexity. Yet, complexity is not accounted for in theories of human decision-making. Here we study instances of the knapsack problem, a discrete optimisation problem commonly encountered at all levels of cognition, from attention gating to intellectual discovery. Complexity of this problem is well understood from the perspective of a mechanical device like a computer. We show experimentally that human performance too decreased with complexity as defined in computer science. Defying traditional economic principles, participants spent effort way beyond the point where marginal gain was positive, and economic performance increased with instance difficulty. Human attempts at solving the instances exhibited commonalities with algorithms developed for computers, although biological resource constraints-limited working and episodic memories-had noticeable impact. Consistent with the very nature of the knapsack problem, only a minority of participants found the solution-often quickly-but the ones who did appeared not to realise. Substantial heterogeneity emerged, suggesting why prizes and patents, schemes that incentivise intellectual discovery but discourage information sharing, have been found to be less effective than mechanisms that reveal private information, such as markets.