Surgery (Austin & Northern Health) - Research Publications
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ItemDynamic lactate indices as predictors of outcome in critically ill patients(BMC, 2011)INTRODUCTION: Dynamic changes in lactate concentrations in the critically ill may predict patient outcome more accurately than static indices. We aimed to compare the predictive value of dynamic indices of lactatemia in the first 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with the value of more commonly used static indices. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of a prospectively obtained intensive care database of 5,041 consecutive critically ill patients from four Australian university hospitals. We assessed the relationship between dynamic lactate values collected in the first 24 hours of ICU admission and both ICU and hospital mortality. RESULTS: We obtained 36,673 lactate measurements in 5,041 patients in the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Both the time weighted average lactate (LACTW₂₄) and the change in lactate (LACΔ₂₄) over the first 24 hours were independently predictive of hospital mortality with both relationships appearing to be linear in nature. For every one unit increase in LACTW₂₄ and LACΔ₂₄ the risk of hospital death increased by 37% (OR 1.37, 1.29 to 1.45; P < 0.0001) and by 15% (OR 1.15, 1.10 to 1.20; P < 0.0001) respectively. Such dynamic indices, when combined with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, improved overall outcome prediction (P < 0.0001) achieving almost 90% accuracy. When all lactate measures in the first 24 hours were considered, the combination of LACTW₂₄ and LACΔ₂₄ significantly outperformed (P < 0.0001) static indices of lactate concentration, such as admission lactate, maximum lactate and minimum lactate. CONCLUSIONS: In the first 24 hours following ICU admission, dynamic indices of hyperlactatemia have significant independent predictive value, improve the performance of illness severity score-based outcome predictions and are superior to simple static indices of lactate concentration.
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ItemRelative hyperlactatemia and hospital mortality in critically ill patients: a retrospective multi-centre study(BMC, 2010)INTRODUCTION: Higher lactate concentrations within the normal reference range (relative hyperlactatemia) are not considered clinically significant. We tested the hypothesis that relative hyperlactatemia is independently associated with an increased risk of hospital death. METHODS: This observational study examined a prospectively obtained intensive care database of 7,155 consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of four Australian university hospitals. We assessed the relationship between ICU admission lactate, maximal lactate and time-weighted lactate levels and hospital outcome in all patients and also in those patients whose lactate concentrations (admission n = 3,964, maximal n = 2,511, and time-weighted n = 4,584) were under 2 mmol.L-1 (i.e. relative hyperlactatemia). RESULTS: We obtained 172,723 lactate measurements. Higher admission and time-weightedlactate concentration within the reference range was independently associated with increased hospital mortality (admission odds ratio (OR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 3.5, P = 0.01; time-weighted OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.9 to 7.00, P < 0.0001). This significant association was first detectable at lactate concentrations > 0.75 mmol.L-1. Furthermore, in patients whose lactate ever exceeded 2 mmol.L-1, higher time-weighted lactate remained strongly associated with higher hospital mortality (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.8 to 12.4, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients, relative hyperlactataemia is independently associated with increased hospital mortality. Blood lactate concentrations > 0.75 mmol.L-1 can be used by clinicians to identify patients at higher risk of death. The current reference range for lactate in the critically ill may need to be re-assessed.