School of Earth Sciences - Theses
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ItemAustralian rainfall and El Niño diversity: past variability and context for recent changes( 2018)The climate system integrates internally and externally induced variability at various time scales as a result of interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. The influence of external forcing on the climate system and with it the structural changes of climate variability, in particular on seasonal and longer time-scales, is difficult to examine due to high natural variability and short observational records. The interplay between high and low-frequency variability restricts our understanding of the full range of climate variability and our ability to contextualise changes. This thesis explores and evaluates the potential to use seasonal paleoclimate information to advance our knowledge of natural climate variability and the multi-century context of recent changes in the Australasian and tropical Pacific region. Climate modes of variability including the El Niño -Southern Oscillation influence Australian rainfall and make Australian rainfall highly variable at interannual timescales. Multi-century reconstructions of past climate variability are developed for Australian rainfall at bi-seasonal resolution. The rainfall reconstruction is based on local paleoclimate proxies and teleconnected links between remote paleoclimate proxies, climate modes of variability and Australian rainfall. In a multi-century context, the recent drying trends in parts of southern Australia, as well as the tendency towards wetter conditions in northern Australia, are found to be unusual. The cool and warm season rainfall reconstructions allow the documentation of distinct characteristics of past major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Using coral data at seasonal resolution, two El Niño index reconstructions illustrate the sequence of diversity of past eastern and central Pacific El Niño events for the last 400 years. The distinct spatio-temporal signatures of both types of El Niño are exploited, and together with a novel machine learning approach, the diversity of past El Niño events is reconstructed and compared to recent changes. The recent increase in the frequency of central Pacific El Niño events relative to eastern Pacific El Niño events during the late 20th century appears unusual. The most recent 30-year period includes more intense eastern Pacific events compared to the past four centuries. To further investigate the changes and interactions between Australian rainfall and El Niño diversity, observations and climate model simulations are compared to the multi-century reconstructions. A number of climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are identified that simulate spatially distinct El Niño behaviour. Identification of El Niño events reveals a lack of model agreement about projected changes of El Niño diversity. The probability of infrequent El Niño characteristics is evaluated and point towards an under-representation of central Pacific events that are followed by eastern Pacific events in the observational records. Future simulations in climate models indicate that this El Niño transition as observed most recently in 2014-2016, could become less common. Based on the rainfall and El Niño reconstructions, the general drying impacts of El Niño is consistent for both types. Despite the strength asymmetry between eastern and central Pacific El Niño events, the impact on Australian rainfall is of a similar order of magnitude but also highlights a strong variable nature of the different types of El Niño and Australian hydroclimate. The context of recent changes provided by the reconstructions in this thesis advances our knowledge of natural climate variability in the Australasian and tropical Pacific region and offers new insights into the future climate of the region.
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ItemFire weather in two regions of the Southern Hemisphere( 2017)This thesis investigated fire weather in Victoria, Australia and the Ecuadorian Andes. The selection of these areas considered several criteria. First of all, bushfires cause significant impacts in these two regions. Victoria has endured some of the most catastrophic bushfire events in Australian history (e.g. “Black Friday” (1939), “Ash Wednesday” (1983), “Black Saturday” (2009)). On the other hand, bushfires in Ecuador destroy every year large areas of national parks in one of the most biodiverse countries in the world. Secondly, the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a strong climate driver in the two study areas. Finally, Victoria and Ecuador share the Eucalyptus as the dominant bushfire-prone species. The aim of this thesis is to better understand the drivers and evolution of fire weather in these two regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Specifically, it examined three aspects. First of all, it investigated fire weather spatial patterns in Victoria and their relationship with associated events like heatwaves. Subsequently, the study explored long-term fire weather variability and changes. Finally, the investigation evaluated the influence of ENSO and other climate drivers over fire weather. The analyses used three groups of data: bushfire records, meteorological and climate indices data. Consistent bushfire records were available only for Victoria during the period 1961-2010. Additionally, the investigation required observations from weather stations in Victoria and the Ecuadorian Andes. This research also analysed reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations ERA-Clim project (ERA-20C). The study had a stronger emphasis on ENSO since it affects both regions. This research used two indices to represent fire weather. The first index was the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). This Australian metric was designed for an Eucalyptus environment. Therefore, this investigation applied the FFDI for Victoria and Ecuador. Additionally, this thesis proposes an alternative fire weather index for Victoria: the “Victorian Seasonal Bushfire Index” (VSBI). The VSBI combines local meteorological variables and sea surface temperature in ENSO regions to represent—and predict—extreme fire weather. The investigation of fire weather in Victoria and the Ecuadorian Andes yielded several findings. First of all, bushfire and heatwave weather patterns display differences from one another in Victoria. These comparisons used synoptic climatologies with reanalysis data during the period 1961-2010. Additionally, the investigation showed that Victoria experienced an increase in fire danger during the period 1974-2010. There is also weaker evidence suggesting an increasing trend since 1920. “El Niño” events are the leading remote driver of fire activity in Victoria. In fact, the incorporation of ENSO indicators in a simple index (VSBI) shows skill to forecast extreme fire weather in this region. For the Ecuadorian Andes, this research indicates that its fire danger season (July-September) is longer than reported. October and November also display “high” fire danger during the period 1997-2012. Finally, “El Niño” events increase fire risk in the Ecuadorian Andes.
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ItemMeasurement and modelling of heat flow in the Gippsland Basin, Victoria( 2015)Geothermal energy has the potential to provide significant quantities of highly available power with little environmental impact. Enhanced geothermal system (EGS) technologies have the potential to become major contributors to global energy production, with a much wider geographic scope than the more established conventional geothermal systems. Certain favourable geological conditions have been recognised as providing improved prospectivity for EGS resources, primarily elevated heat flow rates and thermally insulating cover sequences. Most attention has been given to the location of regions having anomalously high heat flow, typically due to increased heat production in basement rocks such as granites rich in radiogenic isotopes. Little attention has been paid to extremes in thermal insulation, which offer an alternative but equally effective mechanism for increasing geothermal gradients and thus reducing the depth to a geothermal resource. Large and thick deposits of highly insulating coal present a unique thermal environment, where the commonly assumed one-dimensional relationship between surface heat flow and temperature at depth described by Fourier's Law is not maintained due to heat refraction -- a three-dimensional process. Understanding the effects of heat refraction due to thermal insulation and its effect on surface heat flow is a crucial element of exploration strategies in coal-bearing sedimentary basins. The onshore Gippsland Basin, and in particular the Latrobe Valley, is an ideal setting to study the effects of buried confined insulators on surface heat flow and thermal structure. This thesis combines the results of observational insights from empirical field data collection with mathematically driven insights of theoretical models, and simulation-driven insights of numerical finite-element modelling. Additionally, it explores the relatively modern paradigm of data-driven statistical science to generate predictions of rock properties from related intrinsic variables. Measured surface heat flow is moderately variable, with the ten most reliable calculations from borehole data having an interquartile range of 61--78 mW/m², with a mean and standard deviation of 72±14 mW/m², slightly higher than previous estimates. Groundwater advection identified in previous studies appears to affect the thermal structure of only the Cainozoic stratigraphy. Losses of up to 37 mW/m² in the vertical heat flow in the sandy Balook Formation of borehole Rosedale-301 represents a local maximum of heat transfer associated with groundwater advection. Only minor thermal effects are observed in the uppermost Mesozoic section, indicating a return to a dominantly conductive thermal regime there. The self-organising map technique was applied to the prediction of lithostratigraphy and thermal conductivity from well-log data. It successfully identified 91.3% of lithostratigraphy samples from a supervised mapping of well-log data. Mapping of thermal conductivity with corresponding well-log data produced more variable results compared with a petrophysical log interpretation technique over a large cohort of boreholes. However, the SOM analysis returned predicted values with a better correlation with measured values at sampled depths, required less pre-processing of log data, and was able to perform with non-standard log data and legacy tools. With further refinements of the technique, potential improvements may be made with its prediction performance of thermal conductivity and other rock properties. Heat flow theory applied to an idealised simulation of the Latrobe Valley coal seams showed that temperature increases of 35°C beneath the coal are possible over a reference model having no such insulation. Finite-element forward models of cross-sections and 3D volumes through the onshore Gippsland Basin identified highly variable surface heat flow, having up to ±30 mW/m² variance from the basal flux input. Complex patterns resulting from heat refraction were produced, with two common features indicative of confined insulators: 1. the greatest increase in subsurface temperature is correlated with the greatest decrease in surface heat flow, however, 2. surface heat flow tends to be slightly increased above the margins of buried insulators. The main implication from these results is the identification of an end-member insulation-dominated geothermal resource style, requiring new strategies for exploration and resource targeting.
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ItemInvestigating the diurnal variation of the water and energy cycle( 2015)Many weather forecasting models have fundamental difficulties in accurately predicting the intensity and timing of rainfall over the Maritime Continent (MC) just north of Australia, a region known as the weather “boiler box” of the globe. Here, we examine the spatio-temporal variability of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the MC and northern Australia caused by the major modes of climate variability, namely the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the high resolution TRMM 3B42 and 3G68 rainfall datasets. In addition, using datasets of unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions over Darwin, Australia and its vicinity, a life-cycle of rainfall building mechanisms is examined during an event of the eastward progressing MJO to determine the reasons behind occurrence of secondary maximum rainfall in the diurnal cycle of rainfall at Darwin. Distinct variations in the rainfall distribution pattern amongst categories of the MJO over land and ocean are seen. The result of the composite mean rainfall distribution shows that the average daily rainfall rate over many parts of islands is substantially higher compared to the climatology during the suppressed MJO. In contrast, over the surrounding oceans and northern regions of Australia more rainfall occurs during MJO active days. These differences are also well depicted in large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical fields derived from the NCEP reanalyses. Unlike previous studies, we found that the MJO modulates both the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall. The amplitude of morning maximum rainfall near coastal areas during active days of the MJO is 1.5 times greater than the climatological mean rainfall, but is less than or equal to the climatological mean during other phases of the MJO and depends on the local geography and orography. Similarly, the peak in the diurnal cycle for active and suppressed/weak days of the MJO respectively, lags and leads the peak in the diurnal cycle for total rainfall by two hours. Despite the alternating patterns of widespread large-scale subsidence and ascent associated with the Walker circulation, which dominates the climate over the MC during the opposing phases of ENSO, many of the islands of the MC show localized differences in rainfall anomalies that depend on the local geography and orography. While ocean regions mostly experience positive rainfall anomalies during La Niña, some local regions over the islands have more rainfall during El Niño. These local features are also associated with anomalies in the amplitude and characteristics of the diurnal cycle in these regions. These differences are also well depicted in large-scale dynamical fields derived from the ERA-interim reanalyses. Detailed analysis of rainfall building mechanisms over Darwin and its vicinity showed that the large-scale forcing dominates during the MJO phase 4 - 7, starting by the reversal of low- to mid-level easterly winds to moist westerly winds, reaching a maximum in phase 5 and weakening through phases 6 to 7. During phases 4-6, most of the study domain experiences widespread rainfall, but with distinct spatial and temporal structures. In addition, during these phases, coastal areas near Darwin receive more rainfall in the early morning due to the spreading or expansion of rainfall from the Beagle Gulf, explaining the occurrence of a secondary peak over Darwin. Even with correct initialization of the MJO, the 12 km resolution ACCESS-A model fails to simulate this peak. In contrast, local-scale mechanisms (sea breezes) reinvigorate from phase 8, further strengthening through phases 1-3, when low-level easterly winds become established over Darwin producing rainfall predominately over land and island locations during the afternoon. During these phases, below average rainfall is observed over most of the radar domain, except over the Tiwi Islands in phase 2.
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ItemExploring the palaeoclimate potential of South East Australian speleothems( 2013)The paucity of palaeoclimatic data existing for the Southern Hemisphere and the regional bias of new data from the Northern Hemisphere has meant conclusions regarding the global response to the numerous climatic events of the last 20 kyr is both widely disputed and poorly understood. Despite being one of the Southern Hemisphere’s largest landmasses, Australia in particular displays a limited pool of palaeoclimatic information and the production of a new, robust record providing an insight into the response and timing of key climatic events is paramount to generating a more comprehensive characterisation and improved understanding of palaeoclimate in this region. Speleothems (cave deposits) are valuable archives of palaeoclimate variation, characterised by their extensive growth intervals and large geographic extent. They contain a multitude of ‘proxy’ records both directly and indirectly linked to climatic fluctuations and are typically robust, displaying high preservation potential with no post-depositional alteration. Key to their success is their amenability to radiometric dating, allowing the establishment of robust and reliable chronologies to which their multi-proxy records can be anchored. Consequently speleothems provide a clear opportunity to explore and expand palaeoclimatic knowledge at sites across the globe. This thesis describes and explains the use of state of the art technology to exploit relatively recent advances in U-series dating to construct reliable and detailed records of south east Australia’s response to palaeoclimatic fluctuations over the last 50 kyr using samples collected from cave sites from across the states of Victoria and New South Wales. 28 speleothem samples have been analysed in terms of both their coincident growth intervals and stable isotope variation to provide records with palaeoclimatic implications at a range of time scales. The production of a chronological template of speleothem growth intervals has enabled the assessment of south east Australia’s response to some of the key local and global millennial scale climatic events of the last glacial to interglacial transition and detailed stable isotope analysis of selected samples have been interpreted with the aid of a thorough cave monitoring programme, identifying increased variability in the region’s climate during the late Holocene. The palaeoclimatic records developed in this thesis represent a significant step forward in Southern Hemispheric palaeoclimatology. These records offer valuable new data for both palaeoclimatologists exploring south east Australia’s past climate and those investigating climatic fluctuations at a hemispheric to global scale. The high resolution and robust chronology of the records produced means that they provide a benchmark to which future records might be anchored.
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ItemThe weather and climate of Australia at the Last Glacial Maximum( 2005)The global climate has experienced four glacial cycles in the last 420,000 years, with each cycle characterised by a prolonged period of cooling culminating in maximal glaciation followed by a brief warm period. The most recent period of maximal glaciation is termed the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and occurred about 21,000 years ago. We currently live in one of the warm periods. The global climate is changing, and it is becoming more important to understand the extremes of the climate system and how well our modelling capability can capture those extremes. There has been a modelling intercomparison project established to examine how global general circulation models compare in simulating past climates, including the LGM. Analysis and comparison of these model results has been presented for many parts of the globe, but there has not been a comparison of the different model results over the Australian region. This thesis aims to fill that gap and explore the simulated LGM weather and climate of Australia and its drivers in more detail. Comparison with proxy evidence is also undertaken, and inconsistencies seen in the literature addressed. The Australian climate at the LGM was believed to be generally cooler, drier and possibly windier from proxy evidence in the literature. In the comparison done here the mean temperature and precipitation fields from most models show cooler and drier conditions, with some seasonal variability, but there are some strong outliers. It was found that the differences were not dependent on model resolution, but that the surface parameterisations were highly important for these fields. The shifts in the circulation were examined both in the model results and with a study of the non-linear link between the wind, surface moisture and dunes, which are a proxy for past winds. All the models simulate a southward shift in the westerlies in the Australian region. This is strongly driven byte prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Australia's current wind regime is conducive to dune building. However, the binding effect of soil moisture (or vegetation) is strong enough to limit present day movement, whereas in the drier climate at the LGM there was a capacity for sand movement. The analysis of dune orientations did not produce conclusive evidence for how the westerlies might have shifted at the LGM. An apparent enigma in the proxy evidence at the LGM is the high lake levels in Australia’s south east, while most inland lakes were dry. Previous authors believed that the precipitation was still low, but the high lake levels were driven by lowered potential evaporation. The hydrological cycle was generally depressed in the LGM simulations, but the potential for evaporation remained high. Thus an alternative hypothesis is posed based on increased run off due to a known shift in the vegetation types and a lag in the timing of the run off due to snowmelt. The analysis here shows that our capacity to simulate climates quite different from the present is still developing, but that model results can help explain apparent inconsistencies in the reconstruction of past climates from proxies.
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ItemVertical structure Of atmospheric trace gases over Southeast Australia( 2000-01)Trace gas (CO2 and its carbon and oxygen isotopes, CH4, CO, H2 and N2O) vertical profile data above Cape Grim, Tasmania for the period April 1992 to February 1997 are investigated. A climatology of the distribution of each trace gas has been compiled from statistical treatment of the raw data. These climatologies are useful for verification of transport model outputs. Here, the CO2 climatology is compared to simulation results from two transport models (Melbourne University Transport Model and TM2Z) using three different sets of CO2 fluxes separately (compiled with different methods by different authors). Large discrepancies are found between simulations and observations, especially in the free troposphere (4-6 km). By considering emission ratios, trajectories, satellite fire counts and simulation with biomass burning fluxes, the influence of tropical biomass burning plumes on the southeastern Australian region in the austral winter/spring is studied and quantified. This identification process requires a multiple-species approach where the large CO anomalies and the unexpected behaviour of H2 are most revealing. The frequent presence of burning plumes in the mid troposphere complicates one of the original motivations for the Cape Grim Overflight Program, which is to estimate the air-sea exchange of CO2 in this region. A suggestion arising from analysis of pre-1992 aircraft sampling in this region was that the regional CO2 air-sea flux south of Australia is exceptionally large.
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ItemContinental tectonics and landscape evolution in south-central Australia and southern Tibet( 2006-09)The Indo-Australian Plate is actively deforming at its margins and within its interior. In south-central Australia, more than 3000 km from the closest active plate boundary, a geomorphically rugged and apparently youthful mountain range has developed, rising up to 1.1km above the adjacent flat-lying outback plains. These ‘Flinders’ and ‘Barrier’ Ranges are seismically active and bound by major reverse fault scarps with clear evidence for Plio-Quaternary displacements, implying that young and active intraplate tectonism has played a fundamental role in their development. Palaeoseismic investigations and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronology indicate faulting occurred in response to a series of large magnitude (~M6.6 to M7.3) palaeo-earthquakes with recurrence intervals of ~1:20,000 to~1:80,000 yrs and long-term fault slip rates of ~50 m Myr-1. Geomorphic observations and 10Becosmogenic nuclide dating indicate surprisingly high and spatially variable rates of bedrock erosion from fault-affected catchments in the Flinders Ranges. Slowly eroding bedrock summit surfaces have been uplifted up to 12 m in the last 60,000-100,000 years relative to more rapidly eroding valley floors and bounding piedmonts, indicating Late Quaternary increases in elevation and relief in response to intraplate tectonism and erosion. However, both facies changes and sediment aggradation-dissection cycles in alluvial fan sequences are out-of-synch within dividual tectonic events, indicating that an aspect of climate (aridification, changing flood frequency-magnitude distributions) has governed the spatial-temporal distribution of range front sedimentation.
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ItemThe fate of cyanide in groundwater at gasworks sites in south-eastern Australia( 2000-09)The fate and transport of cyanide in groundwater was investigated at gasworks sites in southeastern Australia. Two gasworks sites were investigated during this research: one in Tasmania and the other in Adelaide. The research followed three principal methods of investigation: field work, laboratory work and numerical modelling. The field work was aimed at observing the behaviour of cyanide in highly contaminated groundwater environments. Measured field parameters and laboratory analytical results from groundwater sampling were used to describe the hydrodynamics and hydrochemistry of the groundwater environment, providing a framework for groundwater flow and solute transport modelling. Groundwater and soil samples were also collected for use in laboratory experiments. The results from both field sites indicate contrasting hydrogeological environments, however, inorganic (metallic and non-metallic) and organic contaminants were measured in solution at both sites. The maximum concentrations observed at both sites were up to 5,300 mg/L CN(Total) (Adelaide site) and 21 mg/L CN(Total) (Tasmanian site). Results from geochemical modelling of solutes in groundwater at the field sites indicate that cyanide was predominantly in its free form in solution, with metallo- and alkali-cyanides also present.
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ItemExtending the instrumental climate record of southeastern Australia( 2013)Southeastern Australia (SEA) is the most highly populated and agriculturally productive area of the Australian continent. The region also experiences one of the most variable climates in the world, particularly in terms of interannual rainfall. To understand the influence that anthropogenic climate change will have on future SEA climate, it is important to identify the full range of natural climate variability in the region. However, the current instrumental datasets used for SEA climate research only begin in the early 20th century, restricting efforts to identify long-term climate changes and low-frequency variability. This thesis describes the first instrumental climate record for SEA to extend from European settlement in 1788 to the end of 2012. Historical instrumental observations of air temperature, atmospheric pressure and rainfall over SEA have been located and homogenised for the period 1788 to 1909. The historical observations have then been combined with existing high-quality SEA climate data for 1910 to 2012 to examine interannual SEA climate variability over the past 225 years. The extended climate record includes a number of previously unpublished observations during 1788–1859, providing new insight into the climate experienced by early European settlers in Australia. The interannual climate variability identified using the extended record is in good agreement with SEA documentary records, palaeoclimate reconstructions and a historical reanalysis product, verifying the quality of the homogenised pre-1910 SEA climate data. Assessing rainfall variability during 1788–2012 identifies the most recent droughts in 1935–1942 and 1997–2009 as the longest periods of rainfall deficit in SEA since at least 1832, when continuous rainfall observations begin. Conversely, prolonged wet periods during the 1870s and 1890s appear to be more extreme than more recent wet conditions experienced in the 1950s and 1970s. Analysis of the extended SEA temperature record reveals that the current positive temperature trend seen in the region is the strongest and most significant since at least 1860. Long-term stability of teleconnections associated with climate variations in the SEA region are also examined, with a focus on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on SEA rainfall. Breakdowns in the ENSO–SEA rainfall relationship are identified during 1835–1850 and 1920–1959, in agreement with previous observational and palaeoclimate studies. The decrease in ENSO–SEA rainfall correlations appear to be associated with changes in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude meridional pressure gradient, possibly linked to prolonged negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode. The extended instrumental climate record developed in this thesis makes a significant contribution to the emerging field of historical climatology in Australia. It offers valuable new data for historians, climatologists and palaeoclimatologists exploring SEA’s past and present climate. As the regional impacts of anthropogenic climate change become an increasing reality, improved understanding of past climate variability is vital for future climate research.