School of Earth Sciences - Theses
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ItemThe role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies in Australia, the European Union, China and the United States( 2019)Governments are yet to commit to action on climate change commensurate with the likelihood and severity of predicted impacts. The human health consequences of a changing climate are substantial, already being felt and will be exacerbated without ambitious and urgent action. Acting to mitigate climate change can result in ancillary benefits to health outcomes, also known as health co-benefits. Numerous studies over the past two decades have estimated the monetised value of a range of health co-benefits that may result from the implementation of mitigation measures. These studies conclude that accounting for health co-benefits can partially, if not fully, offset abatement costs. Despite this economic rationale for climate action, numerous climate change and health scholars have questioned the influence of health co-benefits on final policies. To date, there has been limited research investigating the political traction of health co-benefits. To begin to address this knowledge gap, this thesis examines the role of health co-benefits in climate change mitigation policy-making in four Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To do so, I first review literature on i) the political economy of health and climate change; ii) the science-policy interface; and iii) power in policy-making in order to identify areas where barriers for the consideration of health co-benefits in climate change mitigation policies may exist. Next, I outline the methods and analytical approach used. I then examine the role of health co-benefits in climate change mitigation policies through the development of case studies for Australia and the European Union. Next, I present results of my analysis of select Chinese and American climate change policy documents published between 2007 and 2017. The key finding of this research is that while health co-benefits are often a driver of air pollution mitigation policies, their consideration in the development of climate change mitigation policies is context- and policy-dependent. In considering the implications of this finding, I discuss key factors influencing the political traction of health co-benefits in the context of existing literature and possible policy implications. This thesis concludes by outlining contributions of this research to the literature and suggesting future research opportunities. The significance of this research is its extension of the burgeoning literature on health co-benefits and climate change mitigation policy-making from a social science perspective. Further, this thesis articulates implications for policy and identifies potential opportunities to enhance the political traction of health co-benefits in climate change mitigation policies at a time when strong climate action is so desperately needed.
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ItemThe energy business system: transformation, social innovation & disruptive smart grid business models( 2018)A radical shift from a high- to a low-carbon energy system is not occurring at the speed required to address climate change. One reason for this, is that conventional energy firms are locked into producing shareholder profit with fossil-intensive business models that are still operable in current markets. This PhD thesis employs systems thinking to analyse lock-in of the energy business system (EBS) and then adopts design thinking to propose disruptive innovations that can accelerate low-carbon transitions. Dynamics of the EBS transition are evaluated in an interdisciplinary way and across systems scales, from the Earth system to the distribution edge of the electrical power system. Conceptual frameworks that combine complex system and transition theory are developed to evaluate the global EBS in an Earth system context and to analyse the role of business models in the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. Previous research suggests that strategies for escaping EBS lock-in include incorporation of environmental liability to shareholders, carbon taxation and other economic measurements to alter market conditions. The systems analysis presented here suggests that to ensure environmental resilience the EBS’s fundamental purpose and governance need revision. I theorise that more social innovation in business models could influence business trajectory in the energy sector. Instead of maximising shareholder profit, social innovations can shift business purpose towards long-term social and environmental value-creation using emerging market-based tools. A business model analysis of the electricity sector is used to identify opportunities for EBS disruption from social innovations. I find that, in general, social and environmentally driven low-carbon projects often struggle to achieve scale and commercial advantage. However, recent business model innovations in smart grids can provide such projects with the required competitive position. Specifically, Virtual Power Plant technology has emerged as an energy management system that allows aggregation and coordination of multiple distributed energy resources. Aggregation can include diverse resources such as photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicles and windfarms. Coordination can achieve improved physical and market performance as a functional unit within the electricity market. Using theoretical model development and illustrative examples, I highlight how emerging opportunities such as peer-to-peer Internet platforms and blockchain technology, also have significant potential as tools to enable disruptive business models, through decentralised value creation using assets from online participants. Building from the systems thinking analysis of the EBS lock-in, the second part of this PhD thesis uses design thinking to propose and further develop a new business model termed a ‘social virtual energy network’ (SVEN). As an urban social electricity-trading network, a SVEN is designed to help accelerate the decarbonisation of the power system and influence paradigm shifts in EBS governance. Two iterations in the design of the SVEN concept are presented and critiqued based on insights derived from the first part of the thesis. The first iteration focuses on the role of virtual power plants and tariff design for business feasibility, and the second on blockchain and user interfaces for mainstream market adoption. Through systems analysis, this study argues that an adequate response to climate change requires a paradigm shift in the EBS. Using a systems design approach, the thesis provides a vision for the architecture of a democratic open energy economy where users and their distributed energy resources have an active role in the value chain of the EBS. The findings and proposals of this work are relevant to debates about the most effective ways of accelerating targeted innovations to achieve a low-carbon energy system.
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ItemGoverning geoengineering sustainably: a scenario exercise to inform Australian geoengineering policy development( 2018)Geoengineering, the technofix to climate change, is a complex, contentious and high-stakes proposal. Yet in the absence of credible long-term global emissions reduction, the idea cannot be overlooked. To ensure that geoengineering contributes to sustainable environmental and social outcomes, a forward-looking, inclusive and reflexive decision-making framework is needed. Instead, Australia’s history on climate policy reflects a short- sighted, impulsive and polarised approach. The motivation of this project is therefore to inform sustainable geoengineering governance in Australia. Within a sustainable governance context, scenarios are often used in the management of long-term, complex, and uncertain issues. This thesis investigates how a scenario exercise can inform sustainable geoengineering governance in Australia. The sustainability focus justifies an interdisciplinary mixed-methods approach. The thesis begins by surveying the present before interrogating the future and is presented as a compilation of five papers. First, the thesis explores from an Earth System Governance perspective what global geoengineering governance exists and how this might evolve. The analysis characterises geoengineering governance as governance-by-default where there is no purposive regulation—decisions are guided by existing norms and driven by the motivations of engaged academics. Given the influence of these actors, the research examines, through a systematic quantitative review, the types of geoengineering governance frameworks proposed in academic and non-academic literature. The study finds that the challenges of geoengineering governance can be likened to issues in other policy domains but suggests that normalising the debate thusly could obscure major threats and novel opportunities. Next, a meta-analysis of geoengineering scenarios is undertaken. It finds that the treatment of geoengineering within these scenarios does not align with sustainability concepts. An emphasis on technological solutions ignores the interdependence of nature and society and conceals alternative options; a focus on global effects and actions disregards local or regional issues; and scenarios portray only a narrow range of perspectives. Finally, an inductive and deductive scenario design method is proposed and demonstrated, producing four scenarios that are analysed in several ways: their key determinants are compared to those of scenarios in the geoengineering literature; they are studied individually and collectively to identify causal relationships and early warning signals; shared learning throughout scenario process is explored; and finally, they are used to stress-test climate policies and inform robust strategies. Proposed Australian climate strategies are found not to be robust. Policies are based on the expectation of enduring government legitimacy and that technological solutions obviate the need for behavioural change. The geoengineering strategy proposed for Australia is engagement nationally and internationally on geoengineering issues in a technologically and ideologically neutral manner and investment in transparent and inclusive research. The contributions of this thesis are several. It establishes that geoengineering governance is not tracking on a sustainable trajectory globally. It suggests that the role of scenarios, already central to geoengineering scholarship and governance design, can be expanded. It proposes and demonstrates a successful scenario development and analysis method. It begins a cross-sectoral Australian geoengineering conversation. It makes specific policy recommendations; and in doing so, it opens up the scope of policy options.
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ItemClimate justice: can we agree to disagree? Operationalising competing equity principles to mitigate global warming( 2017)With the Paris Agreement, the international community has agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to stay below 1.5 °C (UNFCCC 2015a) to avoid dangerous climate impacts. Staying within these boundaries requires important emissions mitigation efforts from all countries (Rogelj et al 2015). Equitable distribution across countries of mitigation efforts, or equivalently of emissions rights, consistent with global mitigation objectives is a contentious issue that involves divergent interpretations of distributive justice (Winkler and Rajamani 2014a). The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report categorises equity approaches from the scientific literature in five groups (Clarke et al 2014). At climate negotiations, most countries tend to support the approach that requires the least efforts on their behalf (Fleurbaey et al 2014, Lange et al 2010). With the absence of consensus on an effort-sharing approach, current negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) follow a self-interested, or ‘bottom-up’, approach to target setting (Andresen 2015, Bodansky 2016) where each country decides its own effort following its understanding of fairness. As a result, the sum of all parties’ announced contributions is not consistent with limiting global warming to 2 °C, let alone 1.5 °C (Rogelj et al 2016a). Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to increase the ambition of their post-Kyoto climate pledges through a ratcheting-up process that begins in 2023. With the disagreement on effort-sharing approaches, the international community relies on diverging metrics to evaluate the adequacy of national pledges with the global warming thresholds. Since the beginning of climate negotiations under the United Nations, a rich literature has modelled allocations of emissions rights to countries using various effort-sharing approaches with uncoordinated parameterisation. At the start of this PhD work, no study modelled the effort-sharing categories presented in the last IPCC report under a common parameterisation. Additionally, the literature on the combination of effort-sharing approaches remained thin and consisted of averaging the emissions allocations of multiple effort-sharing approaches. This PhD thesis addresses these gaps with the modelling of a new emissions allocation framework, the ‘PRIMAP-Equity’ framework, and with the suggestion of a new combination of effort-sharing approaches. Firstly, this thesis quantifies allocations of emissions rights to countries in a manner that reflects the existing literature on distributive justice. An emissions allocation framework is developed to derive national emissions allocations that reflect the five equity categories of the fifth IPCC report. This modelling framework is applied to derive emissions allocations, under each of the five equity categories, consistent with the emissions mitigation goals of the G7 Elmau agreement signed in June 2015. The allocation framework is then used to derive national emissions trajectories aligned with the recent Paris Agreement goals of both well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C, consistently with the five equity categories . This work represents the first quantification of equitable national trajectories to achieve 1.5 °C goal and informs scientists and government experts in the preparation of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C (IPCC 2017). The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), countries’ national pledges, of 171 Parties are then evaluated in order to determine which, if any, categories of equity they are consistent with. As well, the thesis highlights the consistency of G20 countries’ pledges with equity allocations. This is discussed in the context of the statement on fairness contained in each pledge. This PhD thesis then addresses the apparent incompatibility between the global warming thresholds and countries’ self-interested visions of effort-sharing by suggesting a new quantitative approach. Doing so, this PhD thesis provides a new metric, inclusive of all international positions, to assess the ambition of the NDCs under the Paris Agreement. This new ‘hybrid’ allocation method reconciles the ‘bottom-up’ approach of equity with the ‘top-down’ climate threshold that they commonly agreed. Under this ‘hybrid’ approach, each country follows the least stringent effort-sharing approach – out of the five that reflect the equity categories presented in the last IPCC report – to achieve the Paris Agreement. The aggregation of current national pledges is found to align with such a ‘bottom-up’ combination of approaches and lead to a warming of up to 2.3 °C in 2100 (with a 50% chance). Conversely, an enhanced ‘bottom-up’ approach – ‘hybrid’ – of global emissions scenarios leading to 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C warmings results in the achievement of the Paris Agreement mitigation goals of 1.5 °C and well below 2 °C, respectively. Ultimately, this study quantifies a compromise where each country can choose an equity approach to determine its effort, but does directly use that approach to assess other countries’ pledges. Finally, the application of this ‘hybrid’ approach provides a temperature assessment for all countries’ climate pledges, indicating the consistency of countries’ ambition in light of the global temperature goals. The NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China are in line with global ‘bottom-up’ situations leading to warmings of 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C, respectively. The results of this thesis can inform public opinions and decision makers through the ratcheting-up process on what constitutes fair and ambitious pledges to achieve the Paris Agreement following a range or combination of equity approaches. Additionally, the assessments of the adequacy of countries’ pledges with international agreements can inform courts when ruling ‘climate cases’ where governments are sued for their lack of ambition in mitigating emissions (Sabin Center for Climate Change Law 2018).
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ItemFire weather in two regions of the Southern Hemisphere( 2017)This thesis investigated fire weather in Victoria, Australia and the Ecuadorian Andes. The selection of these areas considered several criteria. First of all, bushfires cause significant impacts in these two regions. Victoria has endured some of the most catastrophic bushfire events in Australian history (e.g. “Black Friday” (1939), “Ash Wednesday” (1983), “Black Saturday” (2009)). On the other hand, bushfires in Ecuador destroy every year large areas of national parks in one of the most biodiverse countries in the world. Secondly, the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a strong climate driver in the two study areas. Finally, Victoria and Ecuador share the Eucalyptus as the dominant bushfire-prone species. The aim of this thesis is to better understand the drivers and evolution of fire weather in these two regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Specifically, it examined three aspects. First of all, it investigated fire weather spatial patterns in Victoria and their relationship with associated events like heatwaves. Subsequently, the study explored long-term fire weather variability and changes. Finally, the investigation evaluated the influence of ENSO and other climate drivers over fire weather. The analyses used three groups of data: bushfire records, meteorological and climate indices data. Consistent bushfire records were available only for Victoria during the period 1961-2010. Additionally, the investigation required observations from weather stations in Victoria and the Ecuadorian Andes. This research also analysed reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations ERA-Clim project (ERA-20C). The study had a stronger emphasis on ENSO since it affects both regions. This research used two indices to represent fire weather. The first index was the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). This Australian metric was designed for an Eucalyptus environment. Therefore, this investigation applied the FFDI for Victoria and Ecuador. Additionally, this thesis proposes an alternative fire weather index for Victoria: the “Victorian Seasonal Bushfire Index” (VSBI). The VSBI combines local meteorological variables and sea surface temperature in ENSO regions to represent—and predict—extreme fire weather. The investigation of fire weather in Victoria and the Ecuadorian Andes yielded several findings. First of all, bushfire and heatwave weather patterns display differences from one another in Victoria. These comparisons used synoptic climatologies with reanalysis data during the period 1961-2010. Additionally, the investigation showed that Victoria experienced an increase in fire danger during the period 1974-2010. There is also weaker evidence suggesting an increasing trend since 1920. “El Niño” events are the leading remote driver of fire activity in Victoria. In fact, the incorporation of ENSO indicators in a simple index (VSBI) shows skill to forecast extreme fire weather in this region. For the Ecuadorian Andes, this research indicates that its fire danger season (July-September) is longer than reported. October and November also display “high” fire danger during the period 1997-2012. Finally, “El Niño” events increase fire risk in the Ecuadorian Andes.
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ItemAn attribution study of southeast Australian wildfire risk( 2016)Extreme weather and climate-related events often have a serious impact on our economy, environment and society. This is particularly true in Australia where recurring heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires have resulted in the loss of life, property and livelihoods. The 2009 'Black Saturday' wildfires in southeast Australia provides a tragic example, having resulted in the death of 173 people and the destruction of over 2000 homes. While there are a number of recorded attribution studies for Australian temperature and precipitation-related events, no such study exists for fire weather. This thesis presents a new climate modelling system for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The system, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble size with high spatial resolution allows a range of extreme events to be examined over Australia and New Zealand with well-constrained estimates of sampling uncertainty. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on driving natural climate variability. Using the new weather@home modelling framework, this thesis presents the first known attribution study of southeast Australian fire weather. By applying the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index to large ensembles of regional climate model simulations generated for factual and counterfactual climate scenarios, this thesis reveals that anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of elevated wildfire risk over southeast Australia during the 2008-2009 fire season. Furthermore, the influence of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire risk is found to be greater in spring than summer. Through a series of further modelling experiments, this thesis also demonstrates a novel approach for separating the influence of ENSO and anthropogenic climate change within the context of an attribution study. Across southeast Australia, the increase in wildfire risk due to a change in ENSO phase (from La Nina to El Nino conditions) was identified to be much greater than the increase attributed to anthropogenic climate change. This was largely due to the strong increase in drought factor, and decrease in relative humidity, from La Nina to El Nino conditions.
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ItemThe response of nonlinear feedbacks associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming( 2015)The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual mode of variability in the tropical Indian Ocean which has the potential to severely impact the surrounding countries. A prominent feature of the IOD is its positive skewness, where positive IOD events tend to be larger than negative events resulting in stronger impacts. Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) show a threefold increase in the frequency of extreme events by 2100. However, the contribution of feedbacks associated with the IOD to this skewness and how they respond to increasing greenhouse gases are not well understood. The nonlinearity of four feedbacks (the Bjerknes feedback, sea surface temperature (SST)-cloud-radiation feedback, wind-evaporation-SST feedback, and nonlinear dynamic heating) was investigated and their responses to a warmer climate examined using CMIP5 models. A single model was first used to examine the nonlinearity of the four feedbacks, allowing the cause and effect of each feedback process to be determined. Following this, the analysis was applied to a multi-model ensemble to determine the cause of positive IOD skewness. The role of nonlinear dynamic heating in increasing the frequency of extreme events was then examined. This provides a better understanding of IOD dynamics and future behaviour. The positive Bjerknes feedback controls IOD skewness through the thermocline feedback. In a warmer climate, models show that the skewness of the IOD weakens and the asymmetry of the thermocline feedback displays a significant relationship with this reduced skewness. This decreased asymmetry occurs due to the mean state change of the tropical Indian Ocean where the Walker circulation exhibits weakening. The weaker mean westerly winds allow the climatological thermocline to shoal in the east, reducing the asymmetry of the thermocline feedback and thereby IOD skewness. The other feedbacks do not show as strong a relationship with IOD skewness. The negative SST-cloud-radiation feedback shows stronger damping of positive IODs and this is detrimental for IOD skewness. Under greenhouse warming there appears to be a shift amongst most models, with weaker damping of positive IODs and stronger damping of negative IODs. This is unfavourable for the reduction in skewness that occurs under increasing greenhouse gases. The positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback is not well simulated in coupled models. Therefore the relationship between IOD skewness and the wind-evaporation-SST feedback is uncertain and there does not appear to be a significant change in the asymmetry of this feedback in a warmer climate. Nonlinear dynamic heating involves advection of heat by oceanic currents, reinforcing positive IODs but damping negative IOD events. Amongst the models analysed, this process does not appear to contribute significantly to IOD skewness; however it does play an important role in the generation of extreme events and the projected increase. Nonlinear zonal and vertical advection during moderate events becomes more extreme-like due to the mean state change of the tropical Indian Ocean. This means that conditions during future moderate positive IOD events are similar to present-day extreme events, facilitating the projected increase of extreme positive IODs in a warmer climate.
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ItemHydrological extremes and consequences of climate change( 2013)In the design of infrastructure, risk has been – and often still is – assessed on the basis of long-term averages. Information on variation in hydrological extremes is required as the basis for informed decision-making, preparedness and possible adaptation. Long-term trends are fairly well understood for temperature but less well for precipitation. While climate models have become sophisticated tools for projecting future changes in our climate, their ability to replicate observed variations in precipitation is limited and it is therefore prudent to complement climate models through analysis of historical observations. Design rainfall is used as one of the required inputs for hydrological models in the design of structures such as dams and bridges. Design rainfall estimates are supplied in form of intensity-frequency-duration curves. Rainfall frequency analysis is almost invariably based on the assumption of a stationary climate. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. This thesis was strongly driven by the motivation to provide guidance to decision makers who have to account for non-stationarity in rainfall extremes. Non-stationarity in rainfall extremes comes about as a conflation of climate change and climate variability. Unlike for temperature extremes, rainfall extremes for Australia as a whole exhibit no clear increase or decrease in intensity over time but strong association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This has implications for the choice of suitable analysis techniques, e.g. sophisticated non-parametric techniques. Depending on the planning horizons both climate change and climate variability may have to be accounted for. The association of rainfall extremes with ENSO leads to an opportunity to develop statistical models to support decision-making on shorter time scales. Analysis of seasonality in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes revealed considerable variation across a set of sites in the southeast of Australia, implying different dominating rainfall-producing mechanisms and/or interactions with local topography. The strongest signal for an increase in extreme precipitation is found for short durations. Changes in rainfall extremes come about through a combination of changes in thermodynamical and dynamical variables. To assess large-scale changes in circulation, a classification technique (self-organising maps, SOM) was applied and synoptic types were identified. Rainfall extremes were then related to the synoptic type under which they occurred, to assess observed changes in the frequency of rainfall extremes. Rainfall extremes are typically preceded by conditions that are much wetter (both in absolute and relative terms) and warmer than the climatological average. These anomalies tend to be larger for shorter durations, and for rarer events. Given that increase in humidity exhibits strong regional variability and that it may be counteracted by changes in dynamics, it appears simplistic to state categorically that climate change will lead to an increase in extreme rainfall events and observed trends in rainfall extremes show a picture that is more complex. In summary, the combination of changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables will define the change in frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes. The factors that are most relevant for the effect of climate change on rainfall extremes depend on geographical location.
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ItemDrivers of Southern Hemisphere climate change( 2013)The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes over recent decades, with additional warming expected under future emission scenarios. However, while temperature increases are robust across models there is more uncertainty around changes in rainfall, atmospheric circulation and extremes, all of which have a large impact on human society and ecosystems. The objective of this thesis was to increase our confidence in future projections by considering the relative importance of various drivers of past and future climate change, with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere. These drivers include sea surface temperatures (SSTs; which may or may not be anthropogenically forced), greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone. To achieve this objective a hierarchy of model experiments were utilised, from idealised experiments to multimodel datasets. Insights were gained by exploring both the consistencies and the spread across the model results. The main results were: 1) The internal variability of the climate system, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), impacts the emerging signals of anthropogenic climate change and characterisations of this noise were explored. Opposite phases of ENSO were found to drive marked contrasts in maximum temperature extremes, with ENSO fidelity crucial in simulating the observed relationships. These patterns are unlikely to change substantially under future climate change. Over the Australian continent, future warming leads to increases in warm temperature extremes and a propensity for longer dry spells interspersed with heavy rainfall events. In general, the magnitude of changes in both temperature and precipitation extremes indices scaled with the strength of emissions. 2) Coupled model simulations were able to reproduce the large-scale features of SH climate trends since 1950, if observed changes in anthropogenic forcings were included. However, atmospheric models driven by observed SSTs and anthropogenic forcings were unable to capture wintertime trends, suggesting either deficiencies in the modelling framework, SSTs or models themselves or that internal variability has been largely responsible for these trends. The improvement of the simulated trends in experiments with partial coupling suggests the modelling framework plays some role in this deficiency. 3) Future changes in the SH atmospheric circulation will be driven by the competing effects of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone recovery. Climate sensitivity was found to largely explain the difference in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) projections between two coupled climate models under identical greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone forcing. This result extended to multimodel simulations under transient carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions in all seasons, with the stronger the warming the larger the trend in the SAM. Tropical upper tropospheric warming was found to be more relevant than polar stratospheric cooling to the model spread in SAM responses to CO2. 4) Idealised SST experiments in two models showed a consistent poleward shift of the SH wintertime westerly jet under Southern Ocean cooling. However, the austral winter response to increased tropical SSTs was found to be model dependent, with opposite latitudinal shifts in the SH westerly jet in the two models. This finding was linked to different tropical rainfall and convective atmospheric heating responses in the models to identical SST increases. These results highlight the reliability of current climate model simulations as well as some of their limitations. Potential deficiencies in forcing datasets, modelling frameworks and the simulation of internal variability were identified. Understanding and improving these deficiencies is crucial for interpreting recent observed change and understanding future projections, particularly at the regional scale.
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ItemThe impacts of climate variability and change on severe thunderstorm environments in Australia( 2012)Severe thunderstorms present a relatively infrequent but significant threat to property and life in Australia during the spring and summer. These thunderstorms can produce hailstones over 2cm in diameter, winds in excess of 90kmh-1 and less frequently tornadoes. Any of these phenomena can result in localised high impact severe events. Recent examples of this potential are illustrated by damage caused by the 1999 Sydney Hailstorm, 2008 Gap Microburst and the 2010 and 2011 Melbourne Hailstorms. This risk makes the implications of a changing and variable climate on severe thunderstorms important to understand. Recent studies into the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on severe weather events, including thunderstorms, suggest a potential increasing trend in both frequency and intensity for Australia. While current convective parameterisations in both global and regional climate models limit direct assessments of future convection, the use of environmental parameters to estimate changes in severe thunderstorm environments has been successful in other geographical regions. This study seeks an answer to the question “Is the frequency and distribution of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia likely to change in the future?” A database of 1550 independent severe thunderstorm reports in Australia has been developed for the period March 2003 to April 2010. Severe thunderstorm reports are then used to identify relationships with their associated environments estimated using proximal soundings from a mesoscale numerical weather assimilation and prediction model (MesoLAPS). This proximity climatology of known severe thunderstorm environments has been successfully used to derive covariate discriminants that identify the potential of an environment to produce severe thunderstorms. These covariates use variables describing the potential for organised convection (deep-layer wind shear), and the potential for instability over the depth of the atmosphere (convective available potential energy). Applying these discriminants to a reanalysis dataset (ERA-Interim), a climatology of the frequency and spatial distribution of environments favourable to the development of severe and significant severe thunderstorms for Australia has been developed for warm seasons during the period 1979-2011. This climatology demonstrates that inter-annual variability in terms of both the frequency and spatial distribution of environments is influenced by El Niño- Southern Oscillation. La Niña conditions are typically associated with an increased frequency and an inland shift of favourable environments over eastern Australia, while El Niño typically results in fewer environments, particularly along the coastal fringe. Applying this climatology, the environments simulated by two climate models (CSIRO Mk3.6 and CCAM) for the 20-season period 1980-2000 are examined over Australia and tested against the reanalysis climatology. In particular, the ability of the models to resolve the intra-annual variability and both quantify and simulate the spatial distribution of convective variables are analysed, and are found to perform reasonably well, especially in the case of the higher resolution CCAM. Finally, future simulations of severe thunderstorm environments from high emissions projections for the period 2079-2099 are presented for both models. Comparing these simulations to the 20th century, a potential small increase in the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments appears likely for southeast and eastern Australia under a warming climate.