Rural Clinical School - Research Publications
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ItemChronic ill health in a regional Victoria setting: A 13-year comparison(WILEY, 2019-12)OBJECTIVE: High-quality data regarding the prevalence of chronic disease in rural areas are essential in understanding the challenges faced by rural populations and for informing strategies to address health care needs. This study compared the prevalence of a range of self-reported chronic conditions and utilisation of GP services and emergency department in a regional Victorian setting between two studies conducted in the same region in 2001-2003 and 2014. DESIGN: Repeat cross-sectional studies conducted over a decade apart. SETTING: The projects were conducted in the Goulburn Valley in regional Victoria. PARTICIPANTS: The earlier study randomly selected households from local government lists. The later study randomly selected householders from the telephone directory. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants were asked whether they had been diagnosed with a range of chronic health conditions and how often they had visited a general practitioner or emergency department in the past 12 months. RESULTS: The age-standardised prevalence of depression was higher in the 2014 study than the 2001-2003 study in men (increased by 8.0% (95% CI 4.5, 11.5%)) and women (increased by 13.7% (95% CI 8.4, 19.0%)). Similarly, the prevalence of age-standardised diabetes and hypertension was higher in 2014 than 2001-2003 (men increased by 3.6% (95% CI 0.7, 6.5% (diabetes)) and 13.6% (95% CI 8.6, 18.6% (hypertension)), women increased by 3.1% (95% CI 0.3, 6.5% (diabetes)) and 8.4% (95% CI 2.3, 14.5% (hypertension))). CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that the prevalence of self-reported depression, diabetes and hypertension has increased in this regional Victorian area over the past 13 years. The reasons for these observed increases and the subsequent impact on the health care needs of regional communities warrants further investigation.
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ItemDevelopment of an Australian cardiovascular disease mortality risk score using multiple imputation and recalibration from national statistics(BIOMED CENTRAL LTD, 2017-01-06)OBJECTIVE: To develop and recalibrate an Australian 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk score to produce contemporary predictions of risk. METHODS: Data were pooled from six Australian cohort studies (n = 54,829), with baseline data collected between 1989 and 2003. Participants included were aged 40-74 years and free of CVD at baseline. Variables were harmonised across studies and missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of CVD mortality associated with factors mutually independently predictive (p < 0.05) and a 5-year risk prediction algorithm was constructed. This algorithm was recalibrated to reflect contemporary national levels of CVD mortality and risk factors using national statistics. RESULTS: Over a mean 16.6 years follow-up, 1375 participants in the six studies died from CVD. The prediction model included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), a social deprivation score, estimated glomerular filtration rate and its square and interactions of sex with diabetes, HDLC and deprivation score, and of age with systolic blood pressure and smoking. This model discriminated well when applied to a Scottish study population (c-statistic (95% confidence interval): 0.751 (0.709, 0.793)). Recalibration generally increased estimated risks, but well below those predicted by the European SCORE models. CONCLUSIONS: The resulting risk score, which includes markers of both chronic kidney disease and socioeconomic deprivation, is the first CVD mortality risk prediction tool for Australia to be derived using Australian data. The primary model, and the method of recalibration, is applicable elsewhere.
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ItemCorrelates of poor mental health in early pregnancy in obese European women(BMC, 2017-12-04)BACKGROUND: Depression during pregnancy is associated with higher maternal morbidity and mortality, and subsequent possible adverse effects on the cognitive, emotional and behavioral development of the child. The aim of the study was to identify maternal characteristics associated with poor mental health, in a group of overweight/obese pregnant women in nine European countries, and thus, to contribute to better recognition and intervention for maternal depression. METHODS: In this cross-sectional observational study, baseline data from early pregnancy (< 20 weeks) of the DALI (Vitamin D and Lifestyle Intervention for gestational diabetes mellitus prevention) study were analyzed. Maternal mental health was assessed with the World Health Organization Well-Being Index (WHO-5). Women were classified as having a low (WHO-5 ≤ 50) or high wellbeing. RESULTS: A total of 735 pregnant women were included. The prevalence of having a low wellbeing was 27.2%, 95% CI [24.0, 30.4]. Multivariate analysis showed independent associations between low wellbeing and European ethnicity, OR = .44, 95% CI [.25, .77], shift work, OR = 1.81, 95% CI [1.11, 2.93], insufficient sleep, OR = 3.30, 95% CI [1.96, 5.55], self-efficacy, OR = .95, 95% CI [.92, .98], social support, OR = .94, 95% CI [.90, .99], and pregnancy-related worries (socioeconomic: OR = 1.08, 95% CI [1.02, 1.15]; health: OR = 1.06, 95% CI [1.01, 1.11]; relationship: OR = 1.17, 95% CI [1.05, 1.31]). CONCLUSIONS: Mental health problems are common in European overweight/obese pregnant women. The identified correlates might help in early recognition and subsequent treatment of poor mental health problems during pregnancy. This is important to reduce the unfavorable effects of poor mental health on pregnancy outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN70595832 , 02.12.2011.
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ItemAssociation between Gestational Weight Gain, Gestational Diabetes Risk, and Obstetric Outcomes: A Randomized Controlled Trial Post Hoc Analysis(MDPI, 2018-11)Excess gestational weight gain (GWG) is associated with the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Lifestyle trials have not achieved much GWG limitation, and have largely failed to prevent GDM. We compared the effect of substantial GWG limitation on maternal GDM risk. Pregnant women with a body mass index (BMI) ≥29 kg/m² <20 weeks gestation without GDM (n = 436) were randomized, in a multicenter trial, to usual care (UC), healthy eating (HE), physical activity (PA), or HE and PA lifestyle interventions. GWG over the median was associated with higher homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and insulin secretion (Stumvoll phases 1 and 2), a higher fasting plasma glucose (FPG) at 24⁻28 weeks (4.66 ± 0.43 vs. 4.61 ± 0.40 mmol/L, p < 0.01), and a higher rate of caesarean section (38% vs. 27% p < 0.05). The GWG over the median at 35⁻37 weeks was associated with a higher rate of macrosomia (25% vs. 16%, p < 0.05). A post hoc comparison among women from the five sites with a GWG difference >3 kg showed no significance difference in glycaemia or insulin resistance between HE and PA, and UC. We conclude that preventing even substantial increases in GWG after the first trimester has little effect on maternal glycaemia. We recommend randomized controlled trials of effective lifestyle interventions, starting in or before the first trimester.
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ItemLongitudinal study of health, disease and access to care in rural Victoria: the Crossroads-II study: methods(BIOMED CENTRAL LTD, 2018-05-30)BACKGROUND: High quality, contemporary data regarding patterns of chronic disease is essential for planning by health services, policy makers and local governments, but surprisingly scarce, including in rural Australia. This dearth of data occurs despite the recognition that rural Australians live with high rates of ill health, poor health behaviours and restricted access to health services. Crossroads-II is set in the Goulburn Valley, a rural region of Victoria, Australia 100-300 km north of metropolitan Melbourne. It is primarily an irrigated agricultural area. The aim of the study is to identify changes in the prevalence of key chronic health conditions including the extent of undiagnosed and undermanaged disease, and association with access to care, over a 15 year period. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a 15 year follow up from the 2000-2003 Crossroads-I study (2376 households participated). Crossroads-II includes a similar face to face household survey of 3600 randomly selected households across four towns of sizes 6300 to 49,800 (50% sampled in the larger town with the remainder sampled equally from the three smaller towns). Self-reported health, health behaviour and health service usage information is verified and supplemented in a nested sub-study of 900 randomly selected adult participants in 'clinics' involving a range of additional questionnaires and biophysical measurements. The study is expected to run from October 2016 to December 2018. DISCUSSION: Besides providing epidemiological and health service utilisation information relating to different diseases and their risk factors in towns of different sizes, the results will be used to develop a composite measure of health service access. The importance of access to health services will be investigated by assessing the correlation of this measure with rates of undiagnosed and undermanaged disease at the mesh block level. Results will be shared with partner organisations to inform service planning and interventions to improve health outcomes for local people.