Engagement - Research Publications
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ItemProjected Burden of Osteoarthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis in Australia: A Population-Level Analysis(WILEY, 2017-09-12)Objective To forecast the prevalence and direct health care costs of osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Australia to the year 2030. Methods An epidemiologic model of the Australian population was developed. Data on the national prevalence of OA and RA were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2014–2015 National Health Survey. Future prevalence was estimated using ABS population projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030. Available government data on direct health care expenditure for OA and RA were modeled to forecast costs (in Australian $) for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030, from the perspective of the Australian public health care system. Results The number of people with OA is expected to increase nationally from almost 2.2 million in 2015 to almost 3.1 million Australians in 2030. The number of people with RA is projected to increase from 422,309 in 2015 to 579,915 in 2030. Health care costs for OA were estimated to be over $2.1 billion in 2015; by the year 2030, these are forecast to exceed $2.9 billion ($970 for every person with the condition). Health care costs for RA were estimated to be over $550 million in 2015, including $273 million spent on biologic disease‐modifying antirheumatic drugs. Health care costs for RA are projected to rise to over $755 million by the year 2030. Conclusion OA and RA are costly conditions that will impose an increasing health care burden at the population level. These projections provide tangible data that can be used to map future health service provision to expected need.
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ItemRestrictive versus liberal fluid therapy in major abdominal surgery (RELIEF): rationale and design for a multicentre randomised trial(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2017-03)INTRODUCTION: The optimal intravenous fluid regimen for patients undergoing major abdominal surgery is unclear. However, results from many small studies suggest a restrictive regimen may lead to better outcomes. A large, definitive clinical trial evaluating perioperative fluid replacement in major abdominal surgery, therefore, is required. METHODS/ANALYSIS: We designed a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised, controlled trial (the RELIEF trial). A total of 3000 patients were enrolled in this study and randomly allocated to a restrictive or liberal fluid regimen in a 1:1 ratio, stratified by centre and planned critical care admission. The expected fluid volumes in the first 24 hour from the start of surgery in restrictive and liberal groups were ≤3.0 L and ≥5.4 L, respectively. Patient enrolment is complete, and follow-up for the primary end point is ongoing. The primary outcome is disability-free survival at 1 year after surgery, with disability defined as a persistent (at least 6 months) reduction in functional status using the 12-item version of the World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule. ETHICS/DISSEMINATION: The RELIEF trial has been approved by the responsible ethics committees of all participating sites. Participant recruitment began in March 2013 and was completed in August 2016, and 1-year follow-up will conclude in August 2017. Publication of the results of the RELIEF trial is anticipated in early 2018. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01424150.
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ItemGlobal optimisation of chiller sequencing and load balancing using Shuffled Complex Evolution(International Building Performance Simulation Association & AIRAH, 2017-11-15)A new model has been developed to optimise the sequencing and load balancing of chillers in the central plants of commercial buildings with multiple water-cooled chillers. The model uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution optmisation algorithm to minimise the total energy consumptions of chillers and pumps by maximising the whole system (central plant) coefficient of performance under a known discrete cooling load. Two commercial buildings in Melbourne’s CBD were simulated as case studies to assess the validity and effectiveness of the model. The control strategies identified by the model performed better than the existing configuration in both cases, reducing energy consumption by 12.2% and 16.6% when compared to the observed energy data for 2016.