School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses
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ItemLivestock performance in a varied landscape and climate( 2016)The sheep and beef industries are significant contributors to Victoria’s economy. Despite competition for land and water resources and an increasingly variable climate, these industries need to continue to increase productivity to remain profitable. As major contributors of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, reducing emissions is also a challenge for these enterprises when considering alternative food and fibre sources. Financial benchmarking, modelling and emission intensity studies seldom recognise that these enterprises are often grazed on diverse landscapes and in the most variable climates, where options for alternative food production are limited. The co-production of meat and fibre from most sheep breeds is often not well recognised and consistently attributed in greenhouse gas emission allocation. This study aimed to investigate whether the relative profitability of a range of sheep and beef enterprises, change across land class and climate. It also aimed to develop measures of and to provide insight into drivers of flexibility, efficiency and profitability leading to guidance on better placed enterprise choice for environment. Four farm case studies were selected to represent climate and land class variability and modelled in GrassGro™. Each farm had one to three land classes enabling eleven ‘farms’ differing in land class over four locations to be simulated. Diversity of land class in this study represented differences in soil type, depth and fertility, slope of land and pasture species. A range of sheep and beef enterprises were tested across all farms to enable comparisons of profitability, flexibility and enteric methane emissions over a forty year period (1970-2010). Enterprise profitability was estimated as net margin per hectare, to allow for labour requirement differences between the enterprises. Flexibility was explored by considering enterprise profit variability and profit response in the top and bottom 10% of years. Strategies that reduced the effects of poor years (higher profit) and increased or did not reduce profitability in good years were considered to have greater flexibility. Enteric methane emissions were calculated in GrassGro™ and an estimation of total end-product made to address the differences in processing stages of red meat and wool, and provide a measure of emission intensity. To further consider the effects of droughts, studies were conducted to quantify commodity price changes in droughts and early warning indicators. A model using total soil water and the Southern Oscillation Index was tested to investigate the potential for predicting droughts before the onset of spring and so provide opportunity for early decision making to mitigate some of the financial impacts of droughts. Wool contributed most to enterprise profitability when pasture production was lowest, as on unimproved pastures, poor soil types and/or in low rainfall years. As pasture production increased across sites and was more reliable, live weight was a stronger driver of profit and systems that had a high proportion of immature animals, tended to perform the best. The specialist meat sheep enterprises were the most profitable when pasture production was highest, but had the highest sensitivity to climate variability. The spring calving enterprise tested in this study was consistently more profitable than the autumn calving enterprise, although the difference was less when pasture production was lowest. These results support, and help to explain, farm financial analyses that have reported enterprise profitability changes between rainfall or regional zones. Where these results did not reflect modelling studies, it was considered to be due to the range in pasture production at the sites tested in this study, as most of the differences were evident at the extremes in pasture production. Most modelling studies in Victoria use sites with high and reliable rainfall, and/or highly productive pastures. Whilst wool production provided a buffer to the susceptibility to droughts, the ability to increase meat production from the system increased flexibility and enterprise profit. For the prime lamb enterprises, a first cross or self-replacing meat enterprise suited to the climate and land class were equally profitable and able to provide options for increased flexibility by feeding and selling lambs early, joining ewes as lambs and running less ewes. Total pasture production, seasonal pasture supply curves as well as replacement ewe turn over price contributed to the most profitable and flexible strategies. The results help to explain some of the inconsistency in the literature on the contribution of strategies to enterprise profit and add to the discussion on the value of increasing reproduction rates. The method for measuring flexibility in this study provides a more quantifiable measure of the term, and addresses factors other than average profitability, of particular relevance to highly variable climates. As with profitability, relative differences in emissions between enterprises were less and/or changed at the sites with the lowest pasture production. As most modelled studies make estimations on fully improved pastures at high rainfall sites, they may overestimate the relative efficiencies of meat specialist systems over wool or dual purpose systems in poorer pasture and land class environments. Research has identified strategies that contribute to lowering emission intensity, such as increased fecundity, improving the feedbase and/or genotype and systems that have a higher proportion of immature stock associated with higher feed efficiency. Consistent with research, these strategies reduced emission intensity but were also most profitable when flexibility rather than profit maximisation was addressed. Therefore the most efficient systems that were also highly profitable tended to be those that maximised returns in good years and reduced the susceptibility to droughts, compared to those that focused on profitability alone. Strategies to do this were not always the same across sites. Analysis of feed and stock prices in recent droughts indicated that steeper price changes occurred from July onwards, compared to other years. Incorporating proportional price changes in drought years in programs like GrassGro™ would allow more realistic analyses of the potential financial implications of drought. Early warning of droughts could provide the opportunity to mitigate losses by using tactical strategies such as selling surplus stock before prices fall and through early purchasing of feed. An explorative study tested triggers of soil moisture and the Southern Oscillation Index which provided reliable indicators of low decile pasture producing springs, with limited risk of above average springs. Further studies are required to test and validate this across more sites and explore the useability for farmers to make informed decisions. The changes in relative profitability, flexibility and emission intensity across landscapes contribute insight into the variability in performance of farm enterprises, within regions and/or when measured as per unit of rainfall. Hence the ability for some farms to attain enterprise profitability achieved by the top 20% of farms based on profitability per mm of rainfall, may not be realistic or achievable. Whilst the industry is currently pushing to increase reproduction rates in sheep enterprises, this study indicates that strategies to do so may vary across enterprise and land class and may not be the most appropriate strategy or profit driver across all farms. More in depth work is needed to identify profit drivers for sheep meat production across land class and environment, particularly in the less reliable pasture production sites. With predictions of increased climate variability, some areas may need to reconsider the suitability of the enterprise for the location and land capability. Similarly, modelling studies that use only sites with high rainfall and improved pastures may not be able to confidently extrapolate results across the wider Victorian environment and may be underestimating emission efficiencies.
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ItemPhytocaps as biotic systems to mitigate landfill methane emissions( 2013)Landfill gas is a significant source of anthropogenic methane emissions and accounts for more than half of greenhouse gas emissions from waste sectors. While harvesting landfill gas for energy is the best mitigation option, methane oxidation by landfill cover soils is considered an important secondary measure to reduce landfill methane emissions. In recent years, regulatory control has evolved to allow consideration of alternative options for final covers. An evapotranspiration cover, also commonly known as phytocap in Australia, is one of the alternative cover options that has been widely considered and investigated. A phytocap presents a soil-plant alternative to the traditional barrier cap approach. It relies on the capacity of a porous layer of soil to store water, and the combination of evaporation and transpiration of vegetation to control the percolation of water into a landfill. When planted with native vegetation, it also improves the ecology and sustainability of a closed landfill. While the hydrological performance of phytocap has been investigated by a number of studies resulting in positive outcomes, its ability to serve also as a “biocover” for effective methane oxidation to mitigate emissions has received little attention. The main aim of this thesis was to assess phytocap performance in terms of enhancing methane oxidation activity in the cover soil and mitigating methane emissions. The research methodology included a full-scale field comparison between phytocaps and conventional compacted clay covers in terms of methane oxidation and emissions. A supplementary glasshouse experiment with both blank and planted soil columns was also conducted to investigate vegetation-methane interactions, and to identify plant influenced soil properties that would affect methane oxidation and emissions. This research forms a part of the 5-year Australian Alternative Cover Assessment Project (A-ACAP), co-funded by the Australian Research Council and Waste Management Association of Australia. In the full-scale field comparison, trial sites located at five landfills under a broad range of Australian climatic conditions have been monitored. The 5 A-ACAP trial sites with side-by-side phytocap and conventional cover test pads were built directly on top of active landfills with an aim to study their hydrological performance as well as methane mitigation efficiency. This thesis related to the methane mitigation component focused on the trial site located in Melbourne where more frequent monitoring campaigns have been conducted. The results of the field trial indicated that phytocaps could mitigate methane emissions more effectively compared to conventional covers. Emission rates detected from the Melbourne phytocap averaged at 1.45 gCH4/m2/day (out of the 17% measurements that resulted in significant positive fluxes), compared to the conventional cover which averaged at 5.57 gCH4/m2/day (out of the 65% measurements that resulted in significant positive fluxes). This positive finding is supported by the gas concentration profile data obtained from both types of covers. The field trial also concluded that the effectiveness of methane oxidation in phytocaps can be significantly enhanced with methane emission reduced to a negligible level when used in combination with gas extraction systems. In contrast, only a marginal gas extraction influence was observed on conventional covers. In addition to the overall reduction in emissions, phytocaps can also significantly reduce the amount of hot spots in surface emissions. For the glasshouse experiment, at both high and low gas influx rates, the planted soil columns showed high oxidation fractions (mostly higher than 0.5), which are comparable to the performance of some biocovers reported in the literature. Rather unexpectedly, the blank soil columns exhibited an even higher average CH4 oxidation fraction (average 0.89 under 36.5-73 gCH4/m2/day load) compared to the planted soil columns (average 0.67 under 36.5-73 gCH4/m2/day load). This finding appeared to be contradictory to the positive methane oxidation enhancement effects of vegetation in soil covers commonly reported in previous studies. With a closer examination, it was observed that the plant roots brought in a significant increase in soil gas diffusivity of the planted columns, which significantly shortened the methane retention time in the soil and subsequently reduced the methane oxidation capacity of the planted columns. The high oxidation fraction of the blank columns was attributed to the organic rich soil. Combining the research of this thesis with the findings of a concurrent A-ACAP hydrological study, it can be concluded that phytocaps provide an economical and sustainable option for new and old landfills to minimise water percolation and to mitigate methane emissions. As a result of achieving the objective of minimising percolation, the soil moisture profile of a phytocap may not be at its optimum for methane oxidation during certain periods of the year. Maintaining a balance between minimising water infiltration and promoting methane oxidation has to be addressed in a phytocap design in order to achieve optimum performance in both functionalities.