School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses
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ItemA systems analysis approach to drought reserves in the Hamilton region( 1971)Following a discussion of drought strategies available to the grazier, one particular strategy, the holding of drought fodder reserves, is examined in detail. The study estimates the least-cost fodder reserves for a range of stocking rate-pasture production regimes in the Hamilton region. The amount of hay feeding required on any stocking-pasture regime is determined from a simulation model of the grazing complex. In this model, three levels of pasture production are stocked at rates ranging from one to ten wethers per acre. The pasture production assumed ranges from "excellent" (i.e. equivalent to the Hamilton Research Station pastures which produce about 10,000 lb. dry matter per annum) to "poor" (35% less). The climatic inputs into the grazing model are the date of Autumn break, for which a formula is derived, and the June to October rainfall. The pasture sub-model is specified and used to derive the pasture which is "grown" in the grazing model. The sheep aspects of the model are reviewed in detail to derive the relationships which are used in the next set of four sub-models in which animal intake is simulated and liveweight changes determined. This set of four sub-models provides for the four situations of animal intake which may be met. These are: The intake of green pasture alone (i.e. all pasture grown after the Autumn Break); the intake of hay alone; the intake of hay and green pasture together; the intake of hay and dry pasture (pasture remaining when the Autumn Break occurs and dry pasture alone which are handled in the same sub-model) The grazing model was validated for the years 1965-67 using data from the Pastoral Research Station, Hamilton, and showed good agreement for all three years simulated, one of which featured a severe drought. Drought feeding requirements (hay) are determined for each of the years 1879 to 1967 and for the ten stocking rate-pasture production regimes, using specific hay feeding rules. These rules, which aim at sheep survival, do not attempt to specify optimum feeding rates per sheep, and any change in them could significantly alter the drought requirements for any of the regimes studied. Furthermore, the estimates are Lased on the assumption that all sheep are fed through the drought. A pre-drought strategy which permitted the sale of certain classes of sheep at some stage during drought would entail lower feed requirements and might have a lower expected cost, especially at high acquisition costs for feed and low replacement costs for sheep. An inventory analysis is then undertaken, based on a 12 month planning period, which utilises the hay feeding probabilities generated in the grazing model, and provides estimates of the least-cost hay reserve. In contrast to previous studies, the price of hay is related to drought length in calculating the penalty cost of inadequate reserves. The effects of varying several parameters of the inventory model are then examined. The parameters varied are hay costs ($4, $10 and $16 per ton), interest rates (7%, 20% and 50%), and salvage values, and these vary in association with the parameters varied in the grazing model (stocking rate, pasture production and the area closed for hay). At the intermediate values for pasture production and hay cost and a 7 per cent per annum interest rate, the minimum-cost reserve rises sharply, from 2 bales per acre at 2 wethers per acre, to 4.5 bales per acre at 3 wethers per acre, 8 bales per acre at 4 wethers per acre, and 15 bales per acre at 5 wethers per acre. The minimum-cost reserve was found to be relatively insensitive to changes in acquisition costs, except at low stocking rates, where a change in reserve of one or two half-bales per sheep was common as acquisition cost varied over the three levels. The effect of interest rates was also examined for the average pasture regime. On the lowest level of hay acquisition cost, ($4 per ton) increasing the rate of interest from 7 to 50 per cent caused reductions of only one half-bale per sheep. However, at high acqusition cost ($16 per ton) raising the interest rate to 20 per cent resulted in a considerable reduction in the minimum-cost reserve, especially on the lower stocking rates, and raising the interest rate to 50 per cent made holding fodder reserves uneconomic for any stocking rate. One measure of the risk in holding various levels of fodder reserve is the standard deviation of the total expected cost. As expected, it was found that this declines as the reserve is expanded to the maximum ever required. However, only a small reduction in standard deviation results from expanding the reserve beyond the minimum-cost level. Finally, estimates were made of the income-maximising stocking rate for each level of pasture production and hay cost, with the wool price at 30, 40 and 50 cents per lb.. At the intermediate values for pasture production (8,000 lb. D.M.) and hay cost ($10 per ton), and with wool at 30 cents per lb. net, the income-maximising stocking rate was 3 wethers per acre. Each increase of 10 cents per lb. in the wool price was generally associated with an increase of one or two wethers per acre in the income-maximising stocking rate. An increase of 2,000 lb. D.M. (from "average" to "excellent") in average annual pasture production was generally associated with an increase of one wether per acre in the income-maximising stocking rate. A reduction of 1,500 lb. from "average" to "poor" pasture. production reduced the income-maximising stocking rate by about one wether per acre. Increasing the hay cost from $4 to $10 per ton reduced the profit-maximising stocking rate by one wether per acre for all combinations of pasture production and wool price examined. However, a further increase in acquisition cost from $10 to $16 per ton only caused a further reduction in the income-maximising stocking rate at the poor level of pasture production: with average pasture production there was little change and with excellent production there was no change in the income-maximising stocking rate.
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ItemThe economic evaluation of forage research results( 2004)Three economic analyses were conducted on the results of dairy forage production experiments undertaken in Victoria. The first analysis investigated the level of pasture production increases that would have to be achieved to warrant the investment in different soil modification options. This analysis took pasture production data and using a computer program "UDDER" (Larcombe 1990) generated farm data which was then applied to development budgets. The increase in pasture growth rate required was such that it is unlikely that investment in the soil modification systems tested here will produce a satisfactory return on investment. The second analysis investigated the use of different pasture species combinations on a dairy farm in northern Victoria. A linear programming model was developed that balanced the energy requirements of the milking herd with the energy supplied from pasture and supplements. The results showed that the most profitable mix of pasture depended on the energy supply profile of the pasture and the requirements of the herd. The proportion of autumn and spring calving cows in the herd in part determined the most profitable pasture mix. The effect of grazing management on profit was the subject of the third study. A farm model was constructed that balanced the energy, protein and neutral detergent fibre requirements of the milking herd with that supplied by pasture and supplements and optimised operating profit. The results of a grazing trial conducted in south-west Victoria were entered into the model and the operating profits for each treatment compared. The results suggested that while Operating profit was related to total pasture consumption, the timing of the pasture consumption impacted on operating profit. The results also suggested that grazing frequency may have affected operating profit more than grazing intensity.
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ItemEconomic evaluation of vegetable crop production in the Goulburn Valley region : using profit maximisation and optimal crop combination approaches( 2002)The vegetable industry in the Goulburn Valley Region has strengths, including the availability of technology and expertise, growing markets, a clean production environment, water availability and the relatively low cost of energy resources. Availability of the use of developed methods, techniques and equipment from transplanting machinery to post-harvest handling and storage facilities are also strengths of the vegetable industry in the Region. These advantages could enable the growers to readily incorporate other vegetable crops into their cropping practices. This type of diversification may well be beneficial both from economic and agronomic standpoints. The overall aim in this thesis is to make recommendations on optimal crop combinations, which can maintain farm profitability of vegetable growers in the Region. Incorporated within this overall objective, three major methods were undertaken in this study to find out options to better farm management. First, the economic aspects of some major vegetable crops are analysed and their economics and productivity are compared. The gross margin analysis of five selected vegetable crops are used to compare the different management practices, timing of operations and different returns. The gross margins per hectare of each crop were also estimated to provide decision-makers with a tool for comparative analysis of activities in a similar environment on their farm. The advantages and disadvantages of single cropping with multi cropping practices, by identifying practical possibilities that could enable growers to better utilise their farm and equipment by crop diversification, was also compared in this part. Second, to investigate economic rationality of growers production practices, using a Cobb-Douglas production function. The production function provides ideas about relationships between production inputs and output. Decision-makers can use the production function analysis to investigate returns to scale, which can show how the scale of production (output) will change when the decision-makers change the factors (inputs) of production. The gross margin technique assumes a linear relationship as an activity is expanded, ie. If the area of crop is doubled, it is assumed that the gross margin for the extra hectares will be the same as for the original area. This is not always so, as there can be a diminishing returns effect as the activity is expanded. While in many cases it is reasonable to assume a linear relationship when planning to increase the area, the grower and his decision-maker should keep the possibility of diminishing returns in mind as the activity is expanded (Makeham and Malcolm, 1986). This information can be obtained from the production function analysis. Third, a linear programming model was developed in this thesis and it was used to solve a particular planning problem (profit maximisation) in a hypothetical situation. Growers must repeatedly make decisions about what crops to produce, by what method, in which season or time periods, and in what quantities in any multiple cropping system. They have to make these decisions subject to the existing farm physical and financial constraints to get the best or "optimal" solution to their problems. The linear programming model's results were also related to production and price functions. This was done to provide the decision-makers with a logical structure for understanding the farm profit related problems and finding how crop quantity and price can be affected. In order to assess the objectives the following two hypotheses were also tested. 1. As an alternative crops whether the production of capsicum, zucchini, broccoli and cabbage were satisfactory crops according to tomato in the Region, and 2. Whether there were any new practices, which could be used by growers to adjust to producing those vegetables. The results show that the vegetable industry has potential to achieve better utilisation of the farm resources and thus increase the farm profitability. Growers should be aware of the production factors that will enable them to increase their competitiveness, and must structure themselves to better utilise them. Therefore, some new practices such as diversification or double cropping practices, using the same growing materials in the same paddock continuously, should be considered. Diversified systems or multi cropping would reduce financial risk and provide protection against drought, pest infestation or other natural factors that can limit the farm production and profitability. However, diversification may increase risk for various reasons including capital costs of highly specialised equipment, associated economy of scale issues and possible lack of expertise required for increasingly specialised production systems. In addition, the possibility that related products such as summer or winter vegetables may be in ample or scarce supply at the same time, and subject to the same price cycle. The major outcome from this research is that there are possibilities and opportunities for the growers to sustain their farm profitability and productivity in the Region. This could be achieved by identifying potential objectives (minimise or maximise something) to find the optimal solution to their farm problems.
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ItemA farm management economic analysis of future dairy systems in the Goulburn Valley( 2002)Case studies were used to analyse the organisation and management of two irrigated dairy farm businesses. In particular, the focus was to . identify the economic' aspects of current and future farming systems in the Goulburn Valley. The approach involved focusing on farmers, the farm business, and the specific details of the farm system that farmers were managing. A whole-farm perspective was relevant as it provided details of the farm system and farmer characteristics that substantially influence how they respond to market changes. The economic 'analyses revealed that theoretical concepts often match the practical management of irrigated. dairy businesses. Also, relatively simple farm management budgets, which capture the full effect on management of the whole farm system from development, have a useful role in providing farmers with effective information about the medium-term growth opportunities on irrigated dairy farms in the Goulburn Valley. From these results it can be concluded that 'it is not what you do, but how you do it' that primarily determines the level of success in achieving goals.
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ItemThe economics of irrigated dairyfarming in the Central Gippsland irrigation district( 1964)It is the purpose of this thesis to investigate the level of managerial efficiency obtaining on a group of dairy farms situated in the Nambrok-Denison area of the Central Gippsland Irrigation District, and to enquire into the possible avenues of increasing the profitability of such undertakings under existing conditions. Emphasis is restricted to analysis at the individual farm level, although the results could be adapted to shed some light on a number of important questions of national policy. Farm management is concerned with the proper combination and operation of production factors, and the choice of crop and livestock enterprises to bring about a maximum and continuous return to the most elementary operation units of farming (Yang 1958, p.4). A broader definition encompasses two further functions, viz. acquisition of factors of production, and adaptation of the farm plan to changing conditions (Castle and Becker 1962, p.253). The present investigation is restricted to an examination of the existing resource allocation efficiency. Thus it represents only a partial analysis of the farm management problem, but one which focuses attention on the more feasible possibilities of increasing farming efficiency in the short run; namely a more efficient reallocation of the resources presently employed on the farm, and the more profitable avenues of investment of additional funds. Farm management research employs the two major processes common to scientific research in general - deduction and induction (Heady 1952., p.14) - and the following pages illustrate this procedure. First, the problem is explicitely stated - how efficiently are the individual farms being managed given relevant restrictions? Second, the theoretically optimum model is defined - in terms of the criteria for efficient resource allocation - and the empirical procedures to be employed in investigating departure from this optimum, lug. residual imputation and regression techniques, are described. The required empirical data is then collected and analysed using the statistical procedures appropriate to the above techniques. Finally, the results of the empirical investigation are examined in the light of the defined criteria for efficient resource use, and on the basis of this comparison between actual and theoretically optimum conditions, suggestions are made regarding the possibilities of more closely approximating the latter.
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ItemAn economic study of small dairy farms in South Gippsland, Victoria( 1969)From the study of small dairy farms (defined as producing less than 10,000 pounds of butterfat in 1964-65) in the Shire of South Gippsland, and with the aid of a short-term linear programming model of a typical small dairy farm, it was concluded that alleviation of some of the problems of low-income dairy farms may be achieved by both increased levels of technology and increased farm area. The study began with a review of the structure of the dairy industry and an evaluation of research related to the low-income problem in that industry. An assessment of the extent and nature of the small-farm, low-income problem in the Shire of South Gippsland was made using the results of a survey of 26 small dairy farms in the Shire. To aid consideration of the conditions under which a typical small dairy farm, such as in the Shire of South Gippsland, might obtain a "reasonable" income (judged to be a farm income greater than $2,700), a linear programming model was constructed. The model was a short-term one designed to represent a typical small dairy farm. It was used to show the effects on income levels of the use of sideline enterprises such as vealers, pigs and sheep; the effects of changes in the level of technology (increases in production per cow and pasture production per acre), and the means of achieving improved levels; and also the effects of changes in farm area combined with changes in the level of technology. The marketing and support policies relating to the dairy industry play an important part in influencing the low-income problem, principally through the attraction of resources to the industry and the encouragement of resources already committed to the industry to remain. Such an effect calls for structural change and the reinstatement of the forces of supply and demand as the main determinants of the allocation of resources to the industry. The extent of the small-farm problem in the Shire of South Gippsland was indicated by the finding that 34 per cent of the dairy farms in the Shire produced less than 10,000 pounds of butterfat in 1964-65. The survey of 26 of these small dairy farms has permitted a clear definition of a typical small dairy farm in physical and financial terms. As well, it has highlighted the low income levels on such farms which obtained an average net farm income of $514 over the three years 1962-63 to 1964-65 and $769 in 1964-65. Only four of the survey farms had a net farm income greater than $2,000 in 1964-65. Farm-family welfare on most of the farms was considered to be inadequate and the allocation of resources to these farms was judged to be inefficient, even when the equalized and subsidized price for butterfat was taken to represent the social valuation, placed on butterfat. With an optimum allocation of the resources available to a typical small dairy farm, as represented in the linear programming model, it was found that either with or without sideline activities and with up to 400 acres of land such a farm could not be expected to produce a "reasonable" income. However, with moderate increases in the level of technology considerable increases in income levels were obtained (a farm income of $1,999 was obtained with a standard level of technology and 132 acres, but a farm income of $5,378 was obtained with an improved level of technology). It was also observed that the maximum income levels were obtained at farm areas somewhat larger than was typical of. the survey farms and that the farm area giving the maximum income increased with an improved level of technology. Other results indicated off-farm work to be helpful in raising income levels, but it is likely in the longer term to lead to deterioration of the farm. For this reason off-farm work may best be considered as a temporary expedient. It was found that pasture production was a major restriction preventing increased income and for this reason agistment played an important part in many of the plans derived. Working capital, as defined, was not shown to be a major limitation to the attainment of greater income. The value of linear programming in such a study was apparent. By specifying important relationships it was possible to determine the broad effects of a wide variety of changes that might be made. By making assumptions about the real situation and using a number of simplifications an understanding of a complex situation was made possible with this technique. The results showed the importance of increased farm area combined with higher levels of technology and this led to the suggestion that the proposed scheme for the encouragement of amalgamation of small dairy farms by the Commonwealth Government might well include some form of assistance in,planning farm development and raising levels of technology. Such assistance could be made conditional to the granting of help under the scheme. Although amalgamation and improvement in the level of technology are important adjustments, the problem of greater overall production as a result of such changes can only be overcome if changes in structure are made at both the farm and the national levels.
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