School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses
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ItemA systems analysis approach to drought reserves in the Hamilton region( 1971)Following a discussion of drought strategies available to the grazier, one particular strategy, the holding of drought fodder reserves, is examined in detail. The study estimates the least-cost fodder reserves for a range of stocking rate-pasture production regimes in the Hamilton region. The amount of hay feeding required on any stocking-pasture regime is determined from a simulation model of the grazing complex. In this model, three levels of pasture production are stocked at rates ranging from one to ten wethers per acre. The pasture production assumed ranges from "excellent" (i.e. equivalent to the Hamilton Research Station pastures which produce about 10,000 lb. dry matter per annum) to "poor" (35% less). The climatic inputs into the grazing model are the date of Autumn break, for which a formula is derived, and the June to October rainfall. The pasture sub-model is specified and used to derive the pasture which is "grown" in the grazing model. The sheep aspects of the model are reviewed in detail to derive the relationships which are used in the next set of four sub-models in which animal intake is simulated and liveweight changes determined. This set of four sub-models provides for the four situations of animal intake which may be met. These are: The intake of green pasture alone (i.e. all pasture grown after the Autumn Break); the intake of hay alone; the intake of hay and green pasture together; the intake of hay and dry pasture (pasture remaining when the Autumn Break occurs and dry pasture alone which are handled in the same sub-model) The grazing model was validated for the years 1965-67 using data from the Pastoral Research Station, Hamilton, and showed good agreement for all three years simulated, one of which featured a severe drought. Drought feeding requirements (hay) are determined for each of the years 1879 to 1967 and for the ten stocking rate-pasture production regimes, using specific hay feeding rules. These rules, which aim at sheep survival, do not attempt to specify optimum feeding rates per sheep, and any change in them could significantly alter the drought requirements for any of the regimes studied. Furthermore, the estimates are Lased on the assumption that all sheep are fed through the drought. A pre-drought strategy which permitted the sale of certain classes of sheep at some stage during drought would entail lower feed requirements and might have a lower expected cost, especially at high acquisition costs for feed and low replacement costs for sheep. An inventory analysis is then undertaken, based on a 12 month planning period, which utilises the hay feeding probabilities generated in the grazing model, and provides estimates of the least-cost hay reserve. In contrast to previous studies, the price of hay is related to drought length in calculating the penalty cost of inadequate reserves. The effects of varying several parameters of the inventory model are then examined. The parameters varied are hay costs ($4, $10 and $16 per ton), interest rates (7%, 20% and 50%), and salvage values, and these vary in association with the parameters varied in the grazing model (stocking rate, pasture production and the area closed for hay). At the intermediate values for pasture production and hay cost and a 7 per cent per annum interest rate, the minimum-cost reserve rises sharply, from 2 bales per acre at 2 wethers per acre, to 4.5 bales per acre at 3 wethers per acre, 8 bales per acre at 4 wethers per acre, and 15 bales per acre at 5 wethers per acre. The minimum-cost reserve was found to be relatively insensitive to changes in acquisition costs, except at low stocking rates, where a change in reserve of one or two half-bales per sheep was common as acquisition cost varied over the three levels. The effect of interest rates was also examined for the average pasture regime. On the lowest level of hay acquisition cost, ($4 per ton) increasing the rate of interest from 7 to 50 per cent caused reductions of only one half-bale per sheep. However, at high acqusition cost ($16 per ton) raising the interest rate to 20 per cent resulted in a considerable reduction in the minimum-cost reserve, especially on the lower stocking rates, and raising the interest rate to 50 per cent made holding fodder reserves uneconomic for any stocking rate. One measure of the risk in holding various levels of fodder reserve is the standard deviation of the total expected cost. As expected, it was found that this declines as the reserve is expanded to the maximum ever required. However, only a small reduction in standard deviation results from expanding the reserve beyond the minimum-cost level. Finally, estimates were made of the income-maximising stocking rate for each level of pasture production and hay cost, with the wool price at 30, 40 and 50 cents per lb.. At the intermediate values for pasture production (8,000 lb. D.M.) and hay cost ($10 per ton), and with wool at 30 cents per lb. net, the income-maximising stocking rate was 3 wethers per acre. Each increase of 10 cents per lb. in the wool price was generally associated with an increase of one or two wethers per acre in the income-maximising stocking rate. An increase of 2,000 lb. D.M. (from "average" to "excellent") in average annual pasture production was generally associated with an increase of one wether per acre in the income-maximising stocking rate. A reduction of 1,500 lb. from "average" to "poor" pasture. production reduced the income-maximising stocking rate by about one wether per acre. Increasing the hay cost from $4 to $10 per ton reduced the profit-maximising stocking rate by one wether per acre for all combinations of pasture production and wool price examined. However, a further increase in acquisition cost from $10 to $16 per ton only caused a further reduction in the income-maximising stocking rate at the poor level of pasture production: with average pasture production there was little change and with excellent production there was no change in the income-maximising stocking rate.
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ItemEpidemiological and physiological studies of the effects of peach rosette and decline disease on the peach, prunus persicae L. Batsch( 1975)The incidence in the field of the disease peach rosette and decline (PRD), which is of considerable economic importance in the Goulburn Valley, causing fruit loss and tree death, was shown to increase from 0.9 to 91.3% in an orchard of cv. Golden Queen in 10 years. Similar results were found with the cv. Pullars Cling, in which infection increased from 1.5 to 29.7% over five years. The pattern of spread was mainly from infected trees to contiguous uninfected trees. This is consistent with the view that the main causal agent, prune dwarf virus (PDV), is transmitted only via the transfer of infected pollen : a previous finding in cherries which was confirmed in peaches. Prunus necrotic ringspot virus (PNRV) is the other virus always present in the field in PRD-infected trees. The mode of spread of PNRV is also by pollen. Within the tree, PDV moved erratically from the first infected limb, via phloem but not xylem, into the other limbs well in advance of the appearance of symptoms. Three months after flowering, PDV was detected in 65% of main limbs adjacent to the first infected limbs but in only 30% of limbs more remotely positioned on the tree. However, removing infected limbs within four weeks of flowering, when the initial infection was presumed to have occurred, did not prevent the movement of PDV into the rest of the tree. Laterals from peach trees infected with PRD were tested for the presence of PDV, using woody virus indicators (cvs Golden Queen, Italian Prune and Elberta seedling). Golden Queen was found to be a more reliable indicator for detecting PDV than Italian prune, as the presence of PNRV with PDV killed 71% of the Italian prune buds compared to only 34% of the Golden Queen buds. Golden Queen also developed more obvious foliage symptoms of PDV infection than Elberta seedlings. The probability of failing to detect PDV in infected field trees, using all three indicator plants, was higher in the first year of infection. The rate of spread of PRD was reduced in the orchard by preventing infected trees from flowering, either by removing obviously infected trees or by deblossoming. Removing infected trees resulted in a three-fold reduction in the spread of the disease in two seasons. Removing the flowers from infected trees before pollination reduced the spread of the disease by about half. This, only partial, control of the spread of PRD by tree removal or deblossoming was attributed to the presence of up to 14.3% of trees without symptoms being latently infected with PDV. It was observed that deliberate infection with PDV by pollen also resulted in a slow expression of the symptoms of PRD. The effects of PRD on the growth of young peach trees was obvious in the first three months of growth. There were considerable varietal differences in the severity of this effect. Those varieties based on cvs. Golden Queen or Levis Cling were more severely affected than the variety Elberta. The results from shoot elongation measurements agreed with those obtained from conventional growth analysis methods. These latter experiments showed that, after three months, the dry weight and leaf area of infected Golden Queen plants were reduced by 94%. The fruit yield from mature PRD-free trees was three times that of trees infected for the first season, even though symptoms were apparent only on one limb; and six times that from chronically affected trees infected for two seasons. The effect of virus infection on the photosynthetic ability of single, attached peach leaves was studied under laboratory conditions using infra red gas analysis. The constants derived from the equations describing the relationship between net photosynthesis (Pn) and both irradiance and CO2 concentration were used to analyse the effects of infection by PRD on photosynthetic characteristics of the leaf. The asymptotic value of Pn (Pmax) in young leaves was reduced 15% by PRD-infection, mainly through an increase in the "residual resistance" to 002 diffusion and a decrease of 23% in the parameter indicating photochemical efficiency. There was also evidence that the gas phase resistance was higher in infected leaves at low levels of irradiance. Dark respiration was 51% higher in infected leaves, but this difference was not significant. PRD did not reduce Pn in 60-day-old leaves, normal leaf senescence having a predominant and greater effect. It was concluded that PRD infection had its large effects on growth via a reduction in leaf area; the effects on the photosynthetic capacity per unit leaf area being minor. An effect of PRD infection on the translocation of 14C-assimilatesout of leaves was also observed. Infected leaves retained twice the assimilates than did uninfected leaves. It is concluded that the most promising methods of control of PRD include removal of infected trees, deblossoming suspected infected trees until diagnosis is confirmed, use of virus-tested plants, the gradual destruction of infected orchards and protecting young, healthy orchards from infection either by barrier crops or deblossoming the young plants until they reach an economic bearing age.
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ItemFarm adjustment on the Wimmera plains( 1971)In the past, in some wheat growing areas of Victoria, particularly the Wimmera, there has been almost total reliance on wheat, other enterprises filling a minor role in the farming system. With the introduction of wheat delivery quotas in April 1969, farm operators were faced with a sudden drop in income. The cost-price squeeze has aggravated the income problem. A typical Wimmera Plains wheat farm of 625 acres is small by Australian standards, but it has the potential to produce 7,500 bushels of wheat, or more, under a fertility-maintaining rotation. In 1970-71, however, farms of this size had, on average, a quota of only 4,700 bushels. The possible level of gross income from wheat has been reduced by between $400 and $3,000 per annum, depending on the comparative profitability of alternative enterprises to wheat. The aim of the study was to investigate two important aspects of the farm adjustment problem on the Wimmera Plains; firstly, the best use of resources released from wheat production, and secondly, the potential for adjustment towards optimal resource combinations. A sample of 20 farms, chosen at random from a population of 129, was surveyed in May and June, 1970. The data collected, together with information supplied by the Victorian Department of Agriculture, provided farm planning coefficients. Because of the relatively homogeneous nature of farms with respect to resource complements and enterprise possibilities, the representative farm model approach was considered to be satisfactory for the examination of farm adjustment possibilities on the Wimmera Plains. Using a representative model, linear programming was used to generate profit-maximising farm plans. Variable price programming was used to study the effect of commodity price changes on income. Because of the dominating importance of feed grains in plans, and uncertainty about their prices, enterprise combinations were studied at both "high" and "low" feed-grain prices. To substantiate the results generated for the representative farm model, five of the sample farms were studied individually. When only the "traditional" enterprises (cereals and sheep) were considered, planning results suggested that the five course rotation, pasture, fallow, crop, fallow, crop, with winter-lambing Merino ewes, is the maximum profit plan at both "high" and "low" feed grain prices. Wheat is grown to the level of quota and barley is grown on the remaining cropped area. Income from livestock is minor relative to crop income, providing only 15 to 30 per cent of total gross margin. However, several alternative (or "new') enterprises which are not vet commonly practised in the area were found to offer considerable promise. Oilseed crops, especially oilseed rape, are profitable alternatives to barley, particularly at low feed-grain prices. Even at the current relatively high feed grain prices, and assuming a conservative yield, rapeseed has the potential to lift income from the 625 acre representative farm model by up to $700 per annum. More experience is required with oilseed crops in the area before firm recommendations can be made. Beef cattle, grain feeding of beef, and pigs, can also contribute to increased farm income. Cattle compete directly with sheep for feed, but pigs can be integrated into the existing farming system using farm-grown barley and surplus operator labour. The returns to capital investment in the cattle and pig enterprises were found to be favourable, especially in the case of pigs. If the necessary capital is to be borrowed, however, it is unlikely that there will be surplus disposable income from cattle enterprises during a ten-year repayment period. Gains to the individual farmer from wheat quota negotiability were investigated. The five case-study farms were considered as a "mini-market" for wheat quota under perfect competition. Assuming that the five operators bought or sold quota in order to maximise their income, the average theoretical gain per farm, from negotiability, was between $100 and $200 per annum, depending on the price of barley. In the theoretical quota market seven thousand bushels of wheat quota were exchanged between the five farms. The return to labour and management which is possible on the typical 625 acre Wimmera Plains farm was found to be below an "acceptable" level of $3,500 per annum. However, at current land values, which have fallen substantially since 1968, the purchase or lease of additional land by typical farmers seems to be profitable. Results indicated that the machinery and labour capacity of the "typical" 625 acre property was sufficient to effectively farm more than 1,000 acres. Eleven per cent of the 129 farms in the Wimmera study area were found to be smaller than 500 acres in size. For such farms, additional land as well as additional quota would probably be necessary for viability, at least at low feed-grain prices.
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ItemThe effect of applied N and P under mowing and grazing on the yield and botanical and chemical composition of irrigated pasture and on the nutrient status of a red-brown earth at Kyabram( 1978)A split plot experiment was conducted over 4 years to study the effect of method of harvesting (grazing and mowing) and applied N and P (5 rates of nitrogen ranged from 0 to 112 kg N ha -1 cut-1 and 6 rates of superphosphate ranged from 0 to 188 kg P ha 1 year year-1) on the yield, botanical and chemical composition of irrigated phalaris (Phalaris tuberosa x Phalaris arundinacea)/white clover (Trifolium repens L. cv. Irrigation) pasture and nutrient status of a red-brown earth at Kyabram. A second experiment was conducted over 2 years to find out the effect of rates (0 to 112 kg N ha. 1) and frequency of N application (2, 4 or 8 times year ) o n dry matter production, botanical composition and crude protein content of paspalum (Paspalum dilatatum)/white clover pasture. Results: Mowed plots significantly out-yielded grazed plots in the first two years. However, grazed plots significantly out-yielded mowed plots in the following two years. Nitrogen application significantly (P <0.01) increased dry matter production of grass/clover mixtures. The size of response was governed by the growth rate of pasture species, clover percentage in the sward, climatic conditions and the status of other nutrients in the soil. Splitting N rates in smaller but more frequent applications had no effect on total herbage yield or seasonal distribution. Response to N (kg D.M. kg N-1 ) declined as N rates increased. Phosphorus application up to 94 kg P ha -1 year -1 significantly (P,(0.01) increased pasture production and relative response was greater in winter. Occasionally, the P and N requirements for maximum production were higher for grazing than for mowing. Both methods of defoliation and fertilizer applications affected pasture composition and IT, P and K content in the herbage. Nitrogen application decreased N in the herbage before increasing it and P application up to 141 kg P ha- 1 year -1 increased it. The return by the grazing animal increased total soil N by 106 kg ha 1 year 1 and soil P (Colwell) by 1:0 p.p.m. in four years compared with the start of the experiment. The relationship between plant P and soil P and P rates were significant (P < 0.01). The available soil P decreased with P withdrawal or the application of 23.5 kg P ha-1 year -1 under grazing and 47 kg P ha -1 year-1 under mowing. Phosphorus and nitrogen application significantly affected available soil P. 60-80% of the available P accuminulated in the 0-5 cm and the downward movement increased by increasing P rates. The continuous mowing and P application significantly reduced available soil K. Defoliation method affected C/t:N ratio. Phosphorus application increased soil N whereas N application decreased it. P application at the rate of 23.5 kg ha-1 year-1 increased total soil N by 0.068% which is equivalent to 952 kg N ha-1 in five years. It was estimated that 4 to 4.7 p.p.m of P was required to be removed or added to the soil to change the available soil P by 1 p.p.m. The application of 196 kg N ha-1 year -1 as NH4 NO3 did not change the soil pH and 784 kg N ha 1 year 1 reduced soil pH by an average of ').4 unit.
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ItemThe ecology and physiology of two species of Carduus as weeds of pastures in Victoria( 1977)Slender thistles (Carduus pycnocephalus and C. tenuiflorus) were introduced to Australia about the 1880s. They are now important weeds of pastures in much of southern Australia and are difficult to control with present methods. This study was undertaken to investigate several aspects of the ecology and physiology of the plants with the belief that a knowledge of some of these aspects, particularly of seed germination and seedling establishment, might disclose some "weakness" in the plants' growth which could be exploited to improve control measures. Because of confusion over differences between the two species which occur in Australia the initial step was to evaluate the morphological features which have been used to distinguish between the two species. Although they are very similar morphologically, cytological evidence confirmed that the two species were quite distinct and, in fact, had quite different evolutionary origins. Germination of seeds of slender thistles is controlled by three separate forms of dormancy; these are known as innate, induced and enforced dormancy. Dormancy ensures that the plants will survive in a Mediterranean-type climate and also colonize areas with quite different climates and, most importantly, survive natural catastrophes such as drought, fire, and flood. The germination of slender thistles in the field is confined to a very short period (about 6 weeks) after the autumn break in any year. This is a "weakness" in the plants' survival mechanism because they are vulnerable in that year, at least, to any treatment which can kill seedlings. The herbicide, diquat, was found to kill young seedlings of slender thistles and not affect seedlings of desirable pasture plants associated with the thistles in southern Australia. This treatment is economical and leads not only to a reduction in thistles but an increase of about 30% in pasture production. Several other aspects of the plants' growth were investigated. Slender thistles have early growth characters which give them advantages over more desirable components of pastures. They are more competitive than subterranean clover and ryegrass over a wide range of levels of nutrients, and the traditional approach to pasture improvement in southern Australia of applying superphosphate and sowing subterranean clover will encourage, not suppress, slender thistles. Since grazing animals generally do not eat slender thistles the presence of thistles in pastures at densities commonly occurring in Victoria considerably reduces pasture production.
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ItemFarm size, structural change, and adjustment policy : a study of the dried vine fruit industry in Sunraysia and Robinvale( 1977)Dried vine fruit farms in Sunraysia and Robinvale were nearly all established under closer settlement schemes, with farm size averaging about 8 hectares. The present study indicates that economics of size exist up to a harvested area of about 25 hectares. This would suggest that structural change is occurring in the industry, with farms being amalgamated to take advantage of these economies of size. However, structural change in recent years has been negligible. Some of the obstacles to adjustment are examined in the thesis. They have important implications for government policy; in particular, there is a need for a Land Authority to facilitate adjustment in dried vine fruit growing regions. The thesis also considers some methodological problems in estimating economies of size, and in deriving policy proposals from such estimates. It concludes that the results of most studies of farm size, including this one, must he regarded as provisional, pending the outcome of properly designed empirical tests. It also concludes that the Paretian concept of efficiency is inadequate as a framework for adjustment policy. I would like to thank my supervisors,Mr. G.W. Edwards, Mr. N.H. Sturgess, and Dr. A.S. Watson, for their advice and encouragement during this study. I am also grateful to Mr. John Connell who colaborated on a preliminary statistical analysis (see Section 4.1.6). Acknowledgement is made to the Bureau of Agricultural Economics for the data used in the empirical sections of the thesis. I am grateful to Mrs. Sue Valiance for her excellent typing of the manuscript, and to Mr. Bill Dahl for preparing the diagrams. I was assisted financially by an A.M. White Scholarship and an R.W.S. Nicholas Scholarship. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Jacky, for her financial support, for help in preparing the bibliography, and for her patient encouragement.