School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses

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Start date: 1990 × Subject: Victoria × Subject: Economic aspects × End date: 1999 ×

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    Adoption of agronomic technologies by farmers
    Konstantinidis, Jim ( 1999)
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    Potential impact of a farm forestry industry on the Goulburn regional economy
    Todd, Charles Robert ( 1996)
    Transactions for a hypothetical farm forestry industry in the Goulburn region were constructed from the output of the FARMTREE model. Eleven different regimes were simulated, including hardwood and softwood, woodlots, timberbelts and wide-spaced agroforestry. This output included estimates of annual cash flows of costs and revenues per hectare. These were transformed to regional aggregated cash flows projected forward over one hundred years. A regional input-output table without farm forestry was constructed using the national input-output table and GRIT and adjusted for future growth. For certain years or 'snapshots' the farm forestry industry transactions were inserted into the future projected input-output table for the Goulburn regional economy. The new balanced input-output table summarizes the inter-sectoral flows and describes the regional structure with the new farm forestry industry inserted. Three snapshots were taken representing different stages of the development of the farm forestry industry: i 2004, the establishment phase: when the cost of plantation formation is greater than the predicted returns from wood sales. ii 2019, the transition phase: when the returns from wood sales have begun to swell whilst new sites are still being planted. iii the steady state phase: when harvesting is equal to replanting, no new sites are being planted, a full range of plantations exist at different stages of formulation and returns from wood sales have trebled since the previous transition year. Two methods were used to analyse the input-output tables constructed and the associated impacts. The first method was the analysis of the difference between the input-output table with farm forestry inserted compared to the input-output table without farm forestry inserted. This method allowed the estimation of the effects of farm forestry industry and the value-added processing of farm forestry products on the other sectors in the regional economy and hence the economy as a whole. The second was with conventional multiplier analysis used to estimate the changes in a given year resulting from an increase in demand for the farm forestry industry, wood manufacturing and other sectors. In the year 2034, the introduction and integration of a farm forestry industry in the Goulburn regional economy potentially generates, using multiplier analysis: $53 million worth of output; $13 million worth of income; and provides for up to 234 jobs. The farm forestry industry, using the difference method of analysis, produced a change in the economy of: $1,268 million in total output, a change of 6 per cent; $302 million in total income, a change of 5 per cent; and 5,750 jobs, a change of 4 per cent. The industry that experiences the single largest increase was the wood manufacturing industry through its value adding of the product purchased from the farm forestry industry.