School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses
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ItemTactical choices of medium and high input dairy systems( 2013)In the last decade dairy farms in northern Victoria were exposed to increased volatility of input and output prices as well as variable climate conditions that include a big dry period. Two representative case study pasture based dairy farms of ‘medium’ and ‘high’ input were selected to examine the production and financial outcomes that arise from a multi-year sequence of tactical farm management decisions. The approach of the research had several key aspects; case studies were selected as the method of investigation, on-farm interviews of the case study farmers were carried out and their financial and physical history was collected. A stochastic multiyear whole-farm biophysical and economic spreadsheet model was developed to analyse the physical and economical performance of the case study farms. The study found that both farming systems had different optimum choices available year to year to increase profitability. In many of the scenarios tested, the decision option with the highest growth in equity compared to other options tested did not always result in the highest net cash flow. The decision maker would need to evaluate the net cash flow implications of their decisions to determine if they are worthwhile choices. For both farms, in years with greater upside, there was a greater range of outcomes between decisions compared to years with poor financial outcomes. This suggests farm managers cannot get too relaxed and complacent in the good years and need to ensure they are gaining the benefits of the good year as well as minimizing losses in the poor years.