School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses

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    Dynamics of a flammable species in a forest landscape: A case study on forest wiregrass Tetrarrhena juncea R.Br.
    Cadiz, Geofe ( 2022)
    Species abundance often determines the extent of influence of a species to ecosystem function and processes. Typically, the abundance of a species is constrained by environmental factors within its habitat. However, there are instances where native species becomes prolific and the shift in abundance greatly impacts the ecosystem. Such is the case when a flammable species becomes prolific within its range and alters the flammability of the ecosystem. This is a concern with climate change, as conditions might be tipped in favour of such species. Hence, it is crucial to understand the drivers of abundance to understand how native species can be released from environmental constraints of abundance to become prolific within their own range, and to predict the potential effect of changing environmental conditions on their abundance. Thus, the overarching aim of this thesis was to understand how a flammable native species can become prolific within its own range. This is achieved using a case study species – forest wiregrass Tetrarrhena juncea R.Br. (hereafter wiregrass) – an understorey native species that is of high importance to flammability in the eucalypts forests of south-eastern Australia and grows prolifically under certain conditions. The overarching aim of the thesis was addressed using a mix of research methods to identify the key drivers of wiregrass distribution and abundance. Firstly, a database of the current distribution for wiregrass were analysed using species distribution modelling to identify highly suitable habitat for wiregrass (Chapter 2). Temperature seasonality, precipitation of the driest month, rainfall seasonality, annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and soil pH were strongly associated with the suitable habitat of wiregrass. The high importance of climatic factors indicates the distribution of wiregrass may be sensitive to climate change. Highly suitable habitats do not necessarily harbor abundant wiregrass because site-specific factors can also control abundance. Hence, Chapter 3 sought to identify the factors most important to wiregrass abundance in the highly suitable habitat of Mountain Ash-dominated forest. Wiregrass cover was assessed in a field survey across a chrono-sequence of 126 sites with contrasting disturbance histories. Canopy cover and net solar radiation were the most important predictors of wiregrass abundance, with wiregrass cover highest in recently disturbed areas with sparse canopy cover, high light levels, and low precipitation. The final component of the thesis used a glasshouse experiment to quantify causal links between resource availability and wiregrass abundance. Wiregrass growth was more sensitive to water availability than light, whereas biomass allocation and leaf morphology were more sensitive to light availability. Collectively, the results showed that, where wiregrass is present (distribution), three key conditions will greatly favour its prolific growth (abundance): (i) non-limiting water resource; (ii) reduced canopy cover and increased light; and (iii) recent disturbance. These key results strongly suggest wiregrass can become prolific when resources are increased, and the vegetation community is substantially disturbed. Under such conditions, increased wiregrass abundance could create a window of increased flammability for the forest ecosystem. Since climate change can alter resource availability and disturbance regime, shifts in wiregrass abundance are likely to occur under future climate scenarios.
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    Predicting future fire regimes and the implications for biodiversity in temperate forest ecosystems
    McColl-Gausden, Sarah Catherine ( 2022)
    Fire regimes are changing around the world. Fire seasons are lengthening, high severity fires are occurring more often and in unexpected places. Relationships among fire, climate, and vegetation are varied, dynamic, and under-examined in many ecosystems. While some studies have explored links between fire, climate, and vegetation such as species distributions or future fire weather under changing climate, relatively few have considered the dynamic interactions among all three simultaneously. In this thesis, I develop and apply modelling approaches to predict future fire regimes in south-eastern Australia and explore the implications for fire-responsive functional plant types. In the first quantitative chapter of my thesis (Chapter 2), I develop a new fuel model for south-eastern Australia. I use edaphic, climatic, and fire variables to build a predictive fuel model that is independent of vegetation classes and their future distributions. In Chapter 3, I use my fuel model in a landscape fire regime simulator, alongside multiple predictions of future climate, to examine the immaturity risk to an obligate seeder tree species (Eucalyptus delegatensis). My simulations indicate that this species will be under increased immaturity risk under future fire regimes, particularly for those stands located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations. In Chapter 4, I expand the application of the above simulation approach to examine the relative importance of future fuel and future climate to changing fire regimes in six case study areas across temperate south-eastern Australia. My results indicate that the direct influence of climate on fire weather will be the principal driver of changes in future fire regimes (most commonly involving increased extent, decreased intervals, and an earlier start to the fire season). The indirect influence of climate on vegetation and therefore fuel was also important, acting synergistically or antagonistically with weather depending on the area and the fire regime attribute. Finally, in my fifth chapter, I consider future climate and fire impacts on plant persistence by combining the landscape fire regime simulator with spatially explicit population viability analyses. Obligate seeder species were at risk of population extinction or reduction in more simulation scenarios than facultative resprouters. However, my approach highlighted that the resilience of facultative resprouters might also be tested by climate related changes in demographic processes and fire regimes. Overall, my research has provided new methods and scientific insights into the changing nature of fire regimes in temperate south-eastern Australia. Some negative impacts on biodiversity from a changing fire regime, particularly on more vulnerable plant functional types like obligate seeders, appear inevitable. Further understanding of the complex interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation will enable improved integration of risks to people, property, and biodiversity into land and fire management planning.