School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Theses
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ItemClimate and climate change effects on carbon uptake and storage in Australia’s wooded ecosystems( 2022)Forest ecosystems are central to the land carbon sector due to their capacity to store and sequester carbon. Many studies have demonstrated that forest carbon uptake and storage is strongly dependent upon climatic conditions. However, the effects of climate on forest carbon uptake and storage in different biomes are still uncertain. Climate change may alter carbon dynamics within forest ecosystems through the direct effects of increased temperature, increased CO2 concentration and changing precipitation regimes. Yet forests may also adjust to changing climate through mechanisms such as thermal acclimation. In this thesis I used three modelling approaches (machine learning, boundary-line analysis, and a land-surface model) to examine how climate of the recent past, present, and future affect carbon uptake (as Gross Primary Productivity, GPP) and storage (as above-ground biomass, AGB) in Australian forests. Furthermore, I explored how current GPP adjusted to thermal regimes and how acclimation affected carbon uptake and storage in the future. In my first quantitative chapter (Chapter 2), I explored relationships between carbon storage (as AGB) with climate and soil in Australian forests across the continent. I developed RandomForest models with climate-only, soil-only, or climate plus soil variables to examine whether climate or soils are better predictors of forest biomass at the continental scale and to identify the most important predictor variables. In this chapter I demonstrated that climate (particularly temperature and the timing of precipitation) was more important than soil for explaining variation in AGB across Australia’s forests. In Chapter 3, I used boundary-line analysis to examine the ecosystem temperature response of carbon uptake (as GPP) in 17 wooded ecosystems representing five distinct ecoregions. These responses were represented as a convex parabolic curve that was similar in shape among ecoregions – narrow in tropical forests and broader in woodlands. I then derived the thermal optima of GPP (Topt) from these curves for each ecosystem and examined the relationship between Topt and mean air temperatures across sites. My analysis revealed a strong positive linear relationship between Topt and mean air temperature that indicated GPP was optimised to the present climate. Finally, in Chapter 4, I predicted how carbon uptake and storage will be affected by climate change in these 17 ecosystems and examined the effects of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis on these predictions. I used the CABLE-POP land surface model adapted with thermal acclimation of photosynthetic functions and forced with climate projections from the extreme climate scenario RCP8.5. My simulations indicated that increased temperature, CO2 concentration and changed precipitation patterns will have a positive effect on future carbon uptake and storage in the majority of the 17 ecosystems. Furthermore, thermal acclimation of photosynthesis is likely to enhance this effect in tropical ecosystems. My results confirm that carbon uptake and storage in Australian forests are fundamentally linked to temperature and precipitation regimes, and that these forests may be capable of adjusting to climatic conditions. My research indicates that the direct effects of climate change are likely to enhance the storage and sink capacity of Australia’s forests in the future. While I did not assess the indirect effects of climate change on carbon cycles through changes to disturbance regimes, overall, my thesis suggests that carbon uptake and above-ground biomass carbon stores in Australia’s forests are likely to be resilient to climate change.