Paediatrics (RCH) - Research Publications
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ItemThe impact of the introduction of ten- or thirteen-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on antimicrobial-resistant pneumococcal disease and carriage: A systematic literature review(INT SOC GLOBAL HEALTH, 2023)BACKGROUND: A systematic review in 2019 found reductions in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of pneumococcal vaccine serotypes following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction. However, few low- or middle-income countries were included as not many had introduced higher valent PCVs (PCV10 or PCV13). The aim of our review is to describe AMR rates in these samples following the introduction of PCV10 or PCV13. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review of published papers that compared AMR for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), otitis media (OM) and nasopharyngeal carriage (NPC) samples following introduction of PCV10 or PCV13 to the pre-PCV period. Included studies published from July 2017 to August 2020 had a post-licensure observational study design and reported on our defined outcomes: IPD, OM, NPC and other (sputum or mixed invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal) isolates from people of all ages. Rates of AMR in the pre- and post-period were extracted. RESULTS: Data were extracted from 31 studies. Among IPD isolates, penicillin AMR rates following PCV10 or PCV13 introduction declined in 32% (n = 9/29) of included studies, increased in 34% (n = 10/29) and showed no change in 34% (n = 10/29). Cephalosporins AMR declined in 32% (n = 6/19) of studies, increased in 21% (n = 4/19) and showed no change in 47% (n = 9/19). Macrolides AMR declined in 33% (n = 4/12) of studies, increased in 50% (n = 6/12), and showed no change in 17% (n = 2/12). AMR to other antibiotics (including multidrug resistance) declined in 23% (n = 9/39) of studies, increased in 41% (n = 16/39) and showed no change in AMR in 36% (n = 14/39). There were no obvious differences between AMR; in setting which used PCV10 vs PCV13, according to time since PCV introduction or by World Bank income status of the respective country. The only study including OM isolates found no change in penicillin resistance. There were few studies on AMR in NPC (four studies), OM (one study) or other isolates (five studies). The results followed similar patterns to IPD isolates. CONCLUSIONS: We observed considerable heterogeneity in the findings between and within studies, e.g. no evidence of reduction in amoxicillin AMR with an increase in macrolides AMR. Reasons for such diverse findings include the period covered by different studies and variation in other pressures towards AMR.
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ItemWhat are the risk factors for death among children with pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review(INT SOC GLOBAL HEALTH, 2023)BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the risk factors for and causes of treatment failure and mortality in childhood pneumonia is important for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment at an individual and population level. This review aimed to identify the most important risk factors for mortality among children aged under ten years with pneumonia. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies reporting risk factors for mortality in children (aged two months to nine years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, assessed risk of bias using the EPHPP framework, and extracted data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for death. We synthesized data descriptively and using Forest plots and did not attempt meta-analysis due to the heterogeneity in study design, definitions, and populations. FINDINGS: We included 143 studies in this review. Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen level), decreased conscious state, severe acute malnutrition, and the presence of an underlying chronic condition were the risk factors most strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality in children with pneumonia. Additional important clinical factors that were associated with mortality in the majority of studies included particular clinical signs (cyanosis, pallor, tachypnoea, chest indrawing, convulsions, diarrhoea), chronic comorbidities (anaemia, HIV infection, congenital heart disease, heart failure), as well as other non-severe forms of malnutrition. Important demographic factors associated with mortality in the majority of studies included age <12 months and inadequate immunisation. Important laboratory and investigation findings associated with mortality in the majority of studies included: confirmed Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), consolidation on chest x-ray, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, and leukopenia. Several other demographic, clinical and laboratory findings were associated with mortality less consistently or in a small numbers of studies. CONCLUSIONS: Risk assessment for children with pneumonia should include routine evaluation for hypoxaemia (pulse oximetry), decreased conscious state (e.g. AVPU), malnutrition (severe, moderate, and stunting), and the presence of an underlying chronic condition as these are strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality. Other potentially useful risk factors include the presence of pallor or anaemia, chest indrawing, young age (<12 months), inadequate immunisation, and leukopenia.
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ItemA single dose of quadrivalent HPV vaccine is highly effective against HPV genotypes 16 and 18 detection in young pregnant women eight years following vaccination: an retrospective cohort study in Fiji(ELSEVIER, 2023-08)BACKGROUND: In 2008/9, Fiji vaccinated >30,000 girls aged 9-12 years with the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (4vHPV) vaccine coverage for at least one dose was >60% (one dose only was 14%, two dose only was 13%, three doses was 35%). We calculated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of one, two and three doses of 4vHPV against oncogenic HPV genotypes 16/18, eight years following vaccination. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken (2015-2019) in pregnant women ≤23 years old, eligible to receive 4vHPV in 2008/9, with confirmed vaccination status. The study was restricted to pregnant women due to the cultural sensitivity of asking about sexual behavior in Fiji. For each participant a clinician collected a questionnaire, vaginal swab and genital warts examination, a median eight (range 6-11) years post vaccination. HPV DNA was detected by molecular methods. Adjusted VE (aVE) against the detection of vaccine HPV genotypes (16/18), the comparison group of non-vaccine genotypes (31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59/66/68), and genital warts were calculated. Covariates included in the adjusted model were: age, ethnicity and smoking, according to univariate association with any HPV detection. FINDINGS: Among 822 participants the prevalence of HPV 16/18 in the unvaccinated, one, two and three-dose groups were 13.3% (50/376), 2.5% (4/158), 0% (0/99) and 1.6% (3/189), respectively; and for the non-vaccine high-risk genotypes, the detection rate was similar across dosage groups (33.2%-40.4%, p = 0.321). The aVE against HPV 16/18 for one, two and three doses were 81% (95% CI; 48-93%), 100% (95% CI; 100-100%), and 89% (95% CI; 64-96%), respectively. Prevalence of HPV 16/18 was lower among women with longer time since vaccination. INTERPRETATIONS: A single dose 4vHPV vaccine is highly effective against HPV genotypes 16 and 18 eight years following vaccination. Our results provide the longest duration of protection for reduced dose 4vHPV schedule in a low- or middle-income country in the Western Pacific region. FUNDING: This study was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government and Fiji Health Sector Support Program (FHSSP). FHSSP is implemented by Abt JTA on behalf of the Australian Government.
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ItemCan child pneumonia in low-resource settings be treated without antibiotics? A systematic review & meta-analysis(INT SOC GLOBAL HEALTH, 2022)BACKGROUND: WHO guidelines recommend the use of antibiotics for all cases of pneumonia in children, despite the majority being caused by viruses. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine which children aged 2-59 months with WHO-defined fast breathing pneumonia, if any, can be safely treated without antibiotics. METHODS: We systematically searched medical databases for articles published in the last 20 years. We included both observational and interventional studies that compared antibiotics to no antibiotics in children aged 2-59 months diagnosed with fast breathing pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, and assessed for risk of bias using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) framework. Overall, we included 13 studies in this review. We performed a meta-analysis of four included studies comparing amoxicillin to placebo. RESULTS: Most children with fast breathing pneumonia will have a good outcome, regardless of whether or not they are treated with antibiotics. Meta-analysis of four RCTs comparing amoxicillin to placebo for children with pneumonia showed higher risk of treatment failure in the placebo group (odds ratio OR 1.40, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.00-1.96). We did not identify any child pneumonia subgroups in whom antibiotics can be safely omitted. Limited data suggest that infants with clinically-diagnosed bronchiolitis are a particular low-mortality group who may be safely treated without antibiotics in some contexts. CONCLUSIONS: Children with WHO-defined fast breathing pneumonia in LMICs should continue to be treated with antibiotics. Future studies should seek to identify which children stand to benefit most from antibiotic therapy, and identify those in whom antibiotics may not be required, and in which circumstances.
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ItemContinuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) for severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review of contextual factors(INT SOC GLOBAL HEALTH, 2022)BACKGROUND: Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) may have a role in reducing the high mortality in children less than 5 years with World Health Organization (WHO) severe pneumonia. More evidence is needed to understand important contextual factors that impact on implementation, effectiveness, and safety in low resource settings. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of Medline, Embase and Pubmed (January 2000 to August 2020) with terms of "pneumonia", "CPAP" and "child". We included studies that provided original clinical or non-clinical data on the use of CPAP in children (28 days-4 years) with pneumonia in low- or middle-income countries. We used standardised tools to assess study quality, and grade levels of evidence for clinical conclusions. Results are presented as a narrative synthesis describing context, intervention, and population alongside outcome data. RESULTS: Of 902 identified unique references, 23 articles met inclusion criteria, including 6 randomised controlled trials, one cluster cross over trial, 12 observational studies, 3 case reports and 1 cost-effectiveness analysis. There was significant heterogeneity in patient population, with wide range in mortality among participants in different studies (0%-55%). Reporting of contextual factors, including staffing, costs, and details of supportive care was patchy and non-standardised. Current evidence suggests that CPAP has a role in the management of infants with bronchiolitis and as escalation therapy for children with pneumonia failing standard-flow oxygen therapy. However, CPAP must be implemented with appropriate staffing (including doctor oversight), intensive monitoring and supportive care, and technician and infrastructure capacity. We provide practical guidance and recommendations based on available evidence and published expert opinion, for the adoption of CPAP into routine care in low resource settings and for reporting of future CPAP studies. CONCLUSIONS: CPAP is a safe intervention in settings that can provide intensive monitoring and supportive care, and the strongest evidence for a benefit of CPAP is in infants (aged less than 1 year) with bronchiolitis. The available published evidence and clinical experience can be used to help facilities assess appropriateness of implementing CPAP, guide health workers in refining selection of patients most likely to benefit from it, and provide a framework for components of safe and effective CPAP therapy. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration: CRD42020210597.
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ItemPneumococcal vaccine schedules (PVS) study: a cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial of an alternative versus standard schedule for pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-statistical analysis plan.(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-12-28)RATIONALE: The effectiveness of universal immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been evident in many countries. However, the global impact of PCV is limited by its cost, which has prevented its introduction in several countries. Reducing the cost of PCV programmes may facilitate vaccine introduction in some countries and improve the sustainability of PCV in EPIs in low-income countries when they transition away from subsidised vaccine supply. METHODS AND DESIGN: PVS is a real-world field trial of an alternative schedule of one dose of PCV scheduled at age 6 weeks with a booster dose at age 9 months (i.e. the alternative '1+1' schedule) compared to the standard schedule of three primary doses scheduled at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age (i.e. the standard '3+0' schedule). Delivery of the interventions began in late 2019 in 68 geographic clusters and will continue for 4 years. The primary endpoint is the prevalence of nasopharyngeal vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in children aged 2-260 weeks with clinical pneumonia in year 4. Secondary endpoints are the prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage among all ages in year 4 and the incidence of radiological pneumonia in children enrolled to receive the interventions. Additional disease and carriage endpoints are included. PURPOSE: This statistical analysis plan (SAP) describes the cohorts and populations, and follow-up criteria, to be used in different analyses. The SAP defines the endpoints and describes how adherence to the interventions will be presented. We describe how analyses will account for the effect of clustering and stratified randomisation. The SAP defines the approach to non-inferiority and other analyses. Defining the SAP early in the trial will avoid bias in analyses that may arise from prior knowledge of trial findings.
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ItemPrevention of young infant infections using oral azithromycin in labour in Fiji (Bulabula MaPei): study protocol of a randomised control trial(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2022-12)INTRODUCTION: Infections are a leading cause of neonatal mortality globally and can be transmitted from mother-to-child vertically or horizontally. Fiji has higher rates of serious neonatal infections and infant skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) than high-income countries. Research from the Gambia found that a single dose of oral azithromycin in labour decreased bacterial carriage and infections in mothers and infants, particularly infant skin infections. The Bulabula MaPei clinical trial evaluates the safety and efficacy of a single dose of azithromycin in labour in reducing the incidence of maternal and infant SSTIs and other infections and the impact on bacterial carriage. It will also describe the effect of azithromycin on antimicrobial (AMR) resistance, the maternal and infant microbiome, and infant dysbiosis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We are conducting a blinded, placebo-controlled randomised clinical trial administering 2 g of oral azithromycin, or placebo, given to healthy, pregnant women (≥18 years) in labour in Suva, Fiji. The primary outcome is the cumulative incidence of SSTIs in infants by 3 months of age. Secondary outcomes include the incidence of other infant and maternal infections, and safety and tolerability of azithromycin in mother and infant. Following informed consent, 2110 pregnant women will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio, with all study staff and participants masked to group allocation. Mother/infant pairs will be followed up for 12 months over six visits collecting clinical data on infections, antimicrobial use, safety and anthropometrics, in addition to nasopharyngeal, oropharyngeal, rectovaginal and vaginal swabs, maternal breastmilk and infant stool samples, in order to compare bacterial carriage, AMR rates and microbiome. Recruitment for Bulabula MaPei started in June 2019. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial was approved and is being conducted according to the protocol approved by The Royal Children's Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee, Australia, and the Fiji National Health Research and Ethics Review Committee. The findings of this study will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03925480.
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ItemEffect of different schedules of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in Vietnamese infants: results from a randomised controlled trial(ELSEVIER, 2023-03)BACKGROUND: WHO recommends a three-dose infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) schedule administered as a two-dose primary series with booster (2 + 1) or a three-dose primary series (3 + 0). Data on carriage impacts of these and further reduced PCV schedules are needed to inform PCV strategies. Here we evaluate the efficacy against carriage of four different PCV10 schedules. METHODS: Participants within an open-label, randomised controlled trial in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, were allocated to receive PCV10 in a 3 + 1 (2,3,4,9 months, n = 152), 3 + 0 (2,3,4 months, n = 149), 2 + 1 (2,4,9.5 months, n = 250) or novel two-dose (2,6 months, n = 202) schedule, or no infant doses of PCV (two control groups, n = 197 and n = 199). Nasopharyngeal swabs collected between 2 and 24 months were analysed (blinded) for pneumococcal carriage and serotypes. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01953510. FINDINGS: Pneumococcal carriage prevalence was low (10.6-14.1% for vaccine-type (VT) at 12-24 months in unvaccinated controls). All four PCV10 schedules reduced VT carriage compared with controls (the 2 + 1 schedule at 12, 18, and 24 months; the 3 + 1 and two-dose schedules at 18 months; and the 3 + 0 schedule at 24 months), with maximum reductions of 40.1%-64.5%. There were no differences in VT carriage prevalence at 6 or 9 months comparing three-dose and two-dose primary series, and no differences at 12, 18, or 24 months when comparing schedules with and without a booster dose. INTERPRETATION: In Vietnamese children with a relatively low pneumococcal carriage prevalence, 3 + 1, 2 + 1, 3 + 0 and two-dose PCV10 schedules were effective in reducing VT carriage. There were no discernible differences in the effect on carriage of the WHO-recommended 2 + 1 and 3 + 0 schedules during the first two years of life. Together with the previously reported immunogenicity data, this trial suggests that a range of PCV schedules are likely to generate significant direct and indirect protection. FUNDING: NHMRC, BMGF.
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ItemHandling of missing data with multiple imputation in observational studies that address causal questions: protocol for a scoping review(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2023-02)INTRODUCTION: Observational studies in health-related research often aim to answer causal questions. Missing data are common in these studies and often occur in multiple variables, such as the exposure, outcome and/or variables used to control for confounding. The standard classification of missing data as missing completely at random, missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random does not allow for a clear assessment of missingness assumptions when missingness arises in more than one variable. This presents challenges for selecting an analytic approach and determining when a sensitivity analysis under plausible alternative missing data assumptions is required. This is particularly pertinent with multiple imputation (MI), which is often justified by assuming data are MAR. The objective of this scoping review is to examine the use of MI in observational studies that address causal questions, with a focus on if and how (a) missingness assumptions are expressed and assessed, (b) missingness assumptions are used to justify the choice of a complete case analysis and/or MI for handling missing data and (c) sensitivity analyses under alternative plausible assumptions about the missingness mechanism are conducted. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will review observational studies that aim to answer causal questions and use MI, published between January 2019 and December 2021 in five top general epidemiology journals. Studies will be identified using a full text search for the term 'multiple imputation' and then assessed for eligibility. Information extracted will include details about the study characteristics, missing data, missingness assumptions and MI implementation. Data will be summarised using descriptive statistics. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required for this review because data will be collected only from published studies. The results will be disseminated through a peer reviewed publication and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This protocol is registered on figshare (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20010497.v1).
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ItemEpidemiology of pneumonia in hospitalized adults ≥18 years old in four districts of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2015-2019.(Elsevier BV, 2023-01)BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children and adults worldwide. Adult pneumonia surveillance remains limited in many low- and middle-income settings, resulting in the disease burden being largely unknown. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing medical charts for respiratory admissions at four district hospitals in Ulaanbaatar during January 2015-February 2019. Characteristics of community-acquired pneumonia cases were summarized by disease severity and age. To explore factors associated with severe pneumonia, we ran univariable and age-adjusted logistic regression models. Incidence rates were calculated using population denominators. RESULTS: In total, 4290 respiratory admissions met the case definition for clinical pneumonia, including 430 admissions of severe pneumonia. The highest proportion of severe pneumonia admissions occurred in adults >65 years (37.4%). After adjusting for age, there were increased odds of severe pneumonia in males (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-2.00) and those with ≥1 underlying medical condition (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.14-1.87). The incidence of hospitalized pneumonia in adults ≥18 years increased from 13.49 (95% CI: 12.58-14.44) in 2015 to 17.65 (95% CI: 16.63-18.71) in 2018 per 10,000 population. The incidence of severe pneumonia was highest in adults >65 years, ranging from 9.29 (95% CI: 6.17-13.43) in 2015 to 12.69 (95% CI: 9.22-17.04) in 2018 per 10,000 population. INTERPRETATIONS: Vaccination and other strategies to reduce the risk of pneumonia, particularly among older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should be prioritized. FUNDING: Pfizer clinical research collaboration agreement (contract number: WI236621).