Paediatrics (RCH) - Research Publications

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    The outcomes of adolescent mental disorders
    Borschmann, R ; Patton, GC (WILEY, 2018-01)
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    Academic Performance in Primary School Children With Common Emotional and Behavioral Problems
    Mundy, LK ; Canterford, L ; Tucker, D ; Bayer, J ; Romaniuk, H ; Sawyer, S ; Lietz, P ; Redmond, G ; Proimos, J ; Allen, N ; Patton, G (WILEY, 2017-08)
    BACKGROUND: Many emotional and behavioral problems first emerge in primary school and are the forerunners of mental health problems occurring in adolescence. However, the extent that these problems may be associated with academic failure has been explored less. We aimed to quantify the association between emotional and behavioral problems with academic performance. METHODS: A stratified random sample of 8- to 9-year-olds (N = 1239) were recruited from schools in Australia. Data linkage was performed with a national assessment of academic performance to assess reading and numeracy. Parent report assessed emotional and behavioral problems with students dichotomized into "borderline/abnormal" and "normal" categories. RESULTS: One in 5 grade 3 students fell in the "borderline/abnormal" category. Boys with total difficulties (β = -47.8, 95% CI: -62.8 to -32.8), conduct problems, and peer problems scored lower on reading. Numeracy scores were lower in boys with total difficulties (β = -37.7, 95% CI: -53.9 to -21.5) and emotional symptoms. Children with hyperactivity/inattention scored lower in numeracy. Girls with peer problems scored lower in numeracy. CONCLUSIONS: Boys with emotional and behavioral problems in mid-primary school were 12 months behind their peers. Children with emotional and behavioral problems are at high risk for academic failure, and this risk is evident in mid-primary school.
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    Effect of Overweight and Obesity on High Blood Pressure in Chinese Children and Adolescents
    Dong, Y ; Jan, C ; Zou, Z ; Dong, B ; Wang, Z ; Yang, Z ; Li, Y ; Wen, B ; Ma, Y ; Song, Y ; Ma, J ; Sawyer, SM ; Patton, GC (WILEY, 2019-09)
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the secular trends of high blood pressure (HBP) and the effects of overweight and obesity on HBP between Chinese ethnic minority and Han children and adolescents . METHODS: Data were collected from 224,151 Chinese ethnic minority and 664,094 Han children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years during three successive, national cross-sectional surveys (2005, 2010, and 2014). Logistic regression and population-attributable risk analyses were used to evaluate the association between HBP and overweight and obesity. RESULTS: HBP prevalence in ethnic minorities increased from 4.8% in 2005 to 6.3% in 2014, which was significantly higher than the variable HBP trends (4.1% to 5.5%) in Han children and adolescents. Both ethnic minority and Han children and adolescents experienced a rapid increase in overweight and obesity, but the pace of growth for HBP, overweight, and obesity was faster in ethnic minorities than in their Han peers. Moreover, the effects of obesity on HBP in ethnic minorities showed a sustained increase over time but were stable for the Han. CONCLUSIONS: Higher HBP prevalence, faster obesity increases, and a stronger impact of obesity on HBP in children and adolescents of Chinese ethnic minorities predict their looming burden of HBP, which suggests that attention to the cardiovascular disease risks in children and adolescents from ethnic minorities is indicated to reduce their future adult risk.
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    Eating disorder symptoms across the weight spectrum in Australian adolescents
    Hughes, EK ; Kerr, JA ; Patton, GC ; Sawyer, SM ; Wake, M ; Le Grange, D ; Azzopardi, P (WILEY, 2019-08)
    OBJECTIVE: Despite known associations between eating disorders and obesity, little is known about the current prevalence of symptoms of eating disorders across the weight spectrum. This study therefore aimed to estimate the population prevalence of eating disorder symptoms in relation to weight status in adolescents. METHOD: The sample comprised 3,270 participants (14-15 years; 52% boys) drawn from Wave 6 of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Symptoms of anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) were assessed using self-report on the Branched Eating Disorder Test. This measure identifies clinically significant symptoms in the past 3 months according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition. Using study-derived cross-sectional population weights, the prevalence of each symptom was estimated for the total population and by sex and weight status. RESULTS: The estimated population prevalence was high (14.3-25.7%) for body image symptoms such as fear of weight gain and overvaluation of body weight but lower (0.5-3.7%) for behavioral symptoms such as binge eating and compensatory behaviors. Symptoms were more prevalent among adolescents with overweight or obesity. Although most symptoms tended to have higher prevalence among girls than boys, boys with obesity had higher prevalence of binge eating and excessive exercise than girls with obesity. The overall estimated population prevalence for AN and BN was 0.20% and 0.10%, respectively. DISCUSSION: The study highlights a need for clinicians to be cognizant of disordered eating behaviors regardless of weight status and has implications for both eating disorder and obesity prevention and intervention.
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    Does adolescent heavier alcohol use predict young adult aggression and delinquency? Parallel analyses from four Australasian cohort studies
    Najman, JM ; Plotnikova, M ; Horwood, J ; Silins, E ; Fergusson, D ; Patton, GC ; Olsson, C ; Hutchinson, DM ; Degenhardt, L ; Tait, R ; Youssef, GJ ; Borschmann, R ; Coffey, C ; Toumbourou, JW ; Mattick, RP (WILEY, 2019-07)
    While the association between heavy alcohol consumption and aggression has been well documented, the causal direction of this association, particularly at a population level, is disputed. A number of causal sequences have been proposed. First, that aggression leads to heavy alcohol use. Second, that heavy alcohol use leads to aggression. Third, that the association between alcohol use and aggression is due to confounding by (a) sociodemographic variables or (b) delinquency. We report here data from four Australasian prospective longitudinal studies of adolescents, to assess the temporal sequence of heavy drinking and aggression over the period from adolescence to young adulthood. The four cohort studies provide a total sample of 6,706 persons (Australian Temperament Project, n = 1701; Christchurch Health and Development Study, n = 931; Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy, n = 2437; Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, n = 1637). We use multinomial logistic regression to determine whether early adolescent aggression predicts subsequent age of onset of heavy episodic drinking (HED), after adjustment for concurrent sociodemographic factors and delinquency. We then consider whether HED predicts subsequent aggression, after adjusting for past aggression, concurrent delinquency, and a range of confounders. There are broadly consistent findings across the four cohort studies. Early aggression strongly predicts subsequent HED. HED predicts later aggression after adjustment for prior aggression and other confounders. Policies that alter population levels of alcohol consumption are likely to impact on levels of aggression in societies where HED linked to aggression is more common.
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    Amphetamine use in the fourth decade of life: Social profiles from a population-based Australian cohort
    Butterworth, P ; Becker, D ; Degenhardt, L ; Hall, WD ; Patton, GC (WILEY, 2018-09)
    INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: To estimate the prevalence and frequency of amphetamine use in a cohort of Australians aged in their mid-30s. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of wave 10 data collected in 2014 from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study: a sample of 1435 persons originally selected in a stratified, random community survey of secondary school students from the state of Victoria that commenced in 1992. Weighted multinomial regression models were used to evaluate the social, health and other substance-use correlates of lifetime and current (12-month) amphetamine use and current frequency of use. RESULTS: Lifetime amphetamine use was reported by 23.2% (95% confidence interval 21.0-25.5%) of respondents, and 6.5% (95% confidence interval 5.2-7.8%) reported current (12-month) use. A quarter (26%) of those currently using amphetamines, 1.7% (95% confidence interval 1.0-2.4%) of all respondents, reported frequent (at least weekly) use. Men reported greater amphetamine use than women. Current amphetamine use was associated with disrupted family circumstances, socioeconomic adversity, polydrug use and high levels of drug use within the social and familial environment. Frequent use was associated with greater likelihood of multiple adversity, unemployment, anxiety disorders and use of mental health services. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The current results show that lifetime, current and frequent amphetamine use was common amongst adults in the fourth decade of life in this cohort, and associated with the experience of social disadvantage, poor mental health and living in a social context in which drug use is the norm.
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    Bullying, mental health and friendship in Australian primary school children
    Bayer, JK ; Mundy, L ; Stokes, I ; Hearps, S ; Allen, N ; Patton, G (WILEY, 2018-11)
    BACKGROUND: Frequent bullying predicts adolescent mental health problems, particularly depression. This population-based study with young Australian primary school children aimed to determine the frequency and mental health correlates of bullying, and whether friendship could be protective. METHOD: Participants were a population-based sample of 1221 children aged 8-9 years attending 43 primary schools in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Children were taking part in the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study. Children completed online questionnaires at school to measure peer relations and emotional well-being. Parents reported on their child's mental health in questionnaires sent to the home. RESULTS: One in three children (29.2%) reported experiencing frequent bullying, defined as at least once a week. This included physical bullying alone (13.8%), verbal bullying alone (22.7%) and the combination (7.4%). Children who reported being frequently bullied self-reported higher internalising symptoms compared with children who did not report frequent bullying (M (SD) 1.6 (0.9) vs. 1.1 (0.8), p < .001). This difference was confirmed by parents' reports of their child's internalising symptoms (M (SD) 2.4 (2.3) vs. 2.1 (2.0), p = .026, respectively). Amongst children who reported frequent bullying, those with a group of friends had better emotional well-being. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of children report experiencing bullying on a weekly basis early in primary school. Given the prevalence of bullying in primary school and its relationship to children's mental health, we recommend effective school-wide antibullying programmes. Further research can explore whether intervention to foster a group of friends around bullied children can improve their emotional well-being.
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    Student survey trends in reported alcohol use and influencing factors in Australia
    Toumbourou, JW ; Rowland, B ; Ghayour-Minaie, M ; Sherker, S ; Patton, GC ; Williams, JW (WILEY, 2018-04)
    INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: There is a need to explain reported trends of reduced alcohol and drug (substance) use in school-aged children in Australia. This study used student survey data collected in the states of Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland to examine trends in substance use and associated influencing factors. DESIGN AND METHODS: Youth self-reports were examined from 11 cross-sectional surveys completed by 41 328 adolescents (average age 13.5 years, 52.5% female) across 109 Australian communities between 1999 and 2015. Multi-level modelling was used to identify trends in adolescent reports of lifetime alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use, adjusted for age, gender, social disadvantage and minority status. Trends in influencing factors were also examined that included: individual attitudes, and family, school and community environments. Multivariate analyses estimated the main contributors to alcohol use trends. RESULTS: Alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use all fell significantly from 1999 to 2015. Higher levels of use were observed in Victoria compared to Western Australia or Queensland. Multivariate analyses identified reductions in favourable parent attitudes and lower availability of substances as direct contributors to reducing alcohol use trends. Indicators of school and family adjustment did not show similar trend reductions. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in adolescent alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use from 1999 to 2015 were associated with similar reductions in parent favourable attitudes and availability of substances. It is plausible that a reduced tendency for parents and other adults to supply adolescent alcohol are implicated in the reductions in adolescent alcohol use observed across Australia.
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    Drinking to death: the changing face of liver disease
    Griswold, MG ; Fullman, N ; Hawley, C ; Arian, N ; Zimsen, SRM ; Tymeson, HD ; Venkateswaran, V ; Tapp, AD ; Forouzanfar, MH ; Salama, JS ; Abate, KH ; Abate, D ; Abay, SM ; Abbafati, C ; Abdulkader, RS ; Abebe, Z ; Aboyans, V ; Abrar, MM ; Acharya, P ; Adetokunboh, OO ; Adhikari, TB ; Adsuar, JC ; Afarideh, M ; Agardh, EE ; Agarwal, G ; Aghayan, SA ; Agrawal, S ; Ahmed, MB ; Akibu, M ; Akinyemiju, T ; Akseer, N ; Al Asfoor, DH ; Al-Aly, Z ; Alahdab, F ; Alam, K ; Albujeer, A ; Alene, KA ; Ali, R ; Ali, SD ; Alijanzadeh, M ; Aljunid, SM ; Alkerwi, A ; Allebeck, P ; Alvis-Guzman, N ; Amare, AT ; Aminde, LN ; Ammar, W ; Amoako, YA ; Amul, GGH ; Andrei, CL ; Angus, C ; Ansha, MG ; Antonio, CAT ; Aremu, O ; Arnlov, J ; Artaman, A ; Aryal, KK ; Assadi, R ; Ausloos, M ; Avila-Burgos, L ; Avokpaho, EFGA ; Awasthi, A ; Ayele, HT ; Ayer, R ; Ayuk, TB ; Azzopardi, PS ; Badali, H ; Badawi, A ; Banach, M ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Barrero, LH ; Basaleem, H ; Baye, E ; Bazargan-Hejazi, S ; Bedi, N ; Bejot, Y ; Belachew, AB ; Belay, SA ; Bennett, DA ; Bensenor, IM ; Bernabe, E ; Bernstein, RS ; Beyene, AS ; Beyranvand, T ; Bhaumik, S ; Bhutta, ZA ; Biadgo, B ; Bijani, A ; Bililign, N ; Birlik, SM ; Birungi, C ; Bizuneh, H ; Bjerregaard, P ; Bjorge, T ; Borges, G ; Bosetti, C ; Boufous, S ; Bragazzi, NL ; Brenner, H ; Butt, ZA ; Cahuana-Hurtado, L ; Calabria, B ; Campos-Nonato, IR ; Campuzano Rincon, JC ; Carreras, G ; Carrero, JJ ; Carvalho, F ; Castaneda-Orjuela, CA ; Castillo Rivas, J ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Chang, J-C ; Charlson, FJ ; Chattopadhyay, A ; Chaturvedi, P ; Chowdhury, R ; Christopher, DJ ; Chung, S-C ; Ciobanu, LG ; Claro, RM ; Conti, S ; Cousin, E ; Criqui, MH ; Dachew, BA ; Dargan, P ; Daryani, A ; Das Neves, J ; Davletov, K ; De Castro, F ; De Courten, B ; De Neve, J-W ; Degenhardt, L ; Demoz, GT ; Des Jarlais, DC ; Dey, S ; Dhaliwal, RS ; Dharmaratne, SD ; Dhimal, M ; Doku, DT ; Doyle, KE ; Dubey, M ; Dubljanin, E ; Duncan, BB ; Ebrahimi, H ; Edessa, D ; Zaki, MES ; Ermakov, SP ; Erskine, HE ; Esteghamati, A ; Faramarzi, M ; Farioli, A ; Faro, A ; Farvid, MS ; Farzadfar, F ; Feigin, VL ; Felisbino-Mendes, MS ; Fernandes, E ; Ferrari, AJ ; Ferri, CP ; Fijabi, DO ; Filip, I ; Finger, JD ; Fischer, F ; Flaxman, AD ; Franklin, RC ; Futran, ND ; Gallus, S ; Ganji, M ; Gankpe, FG ; Gebregergs, GB ; Gebrehiwot, TT ; Geleijnse, JM ; Ghadimi, R ; Ghandour, LA ; Ghimire, M ; Gill, PS ; Ginawi, IA ; Giref, AZZ ; Gona, PN ; Gopalani, SV ; Gotay, CC ; Goulart, AC ; Greaves, F ; Grosso, G ; Guo, Y ; Gupta, R ; Gupta, R ; Gupta, V ; Alma Gutierrez, R ; Gvs, M ; Hafezi-Nejad, N ; Hagos, TB ; Hailu, GB ; Hamadeh, RR ; Hamidi, S ; Hankey, GJ ; Harb, HL ; Harikrishnan, S ; Maria Haro, J ; Hassen, HY ; Havmoeller, R ; Hay, S ; Heibati, B ; Henok, A ; Heredia-Pi, I ; Francisco Hernandez-Llanes, N ; Herteliu, C ; Hibstu, DTT ; Hoogar, P ; Horita, N ; Hosgood, HD ; Hosseini, M ; Hostiuc, M ; Hu, G ; Huang, H ; Husseini, A ; Idrisov, B ; Ileanu, BV ; Ilesanmi, OS ; Irvani, SSN ; Islam, SMS ; Jackson, MD ; Jakovljevic, M ; Jayatilleke, AU ; Jha, RP ; Jonas, JB ; Jozwiak, JJ ; Kabir, Z ; Kadel, R ; Kahsay, A ; Kapil, U ; Kasaeian, A ; Kassa, TDD ; Katikireddi, SV ; Kawakami, N ; Kebede, S ; Kefale, AT ; Keiyoro, PN ; Kengne, AP ; Khader, Y ; Khafaie, MA ; Khalil, IA ; Khan, MN ; Khang, Y-H ; Khater, MM ; Khubchandani, J ; Kim, C-I ; Kim, D ; Kim, YJ ; Kimokoti, RW ; Kisa, A ; Kivimaki, M ; Kochhar, S ; Kosen, S ; Koul, PA ; Koyanagi, A ; Krishan, K ; Defo, BK ; Bicer, BK ; Kulkarni, VS ; Kumar, P ; Lafranconi, A ; Balaji, AL ; Lalloo, R ; Lallukka, T ; Lam, H ; Lami, FH ; Lan, Q ; Lang, JJ ; Lansky, S ; Larsson, AO ; Latifi, A ; Leasher, JL ; Lee, PH ; Leigh, J ; Leinsalu, M ; Leung, J ; Levi, M ; Li, Y ; Lim, L-L ; Linn, S ; Liu, S ; Lobato-Cordero, A ; Lotufo, PA ; King Macarayan, ER ; Machado, IE ; Madotto, F ; Abd El Razek, HM ; Abd El Razek, MM ; Majdan, M ; Majdzadeh, R ; Majeed, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Malta, DC ; Mapoma, CC ; Martinez-Raga, J ; Maulik, PK ; Mazidi, M ; Mckee, M ; Mehta, V ; Meier, T ; Mekonen, T ; Meles, KG ; Melese, A ; Memiah, PTN ; Mendoza, W ; Mengistu, DT ; Mensah, GA ; Meretoja, TJ ; Mezgebe, HB ; Miazgowski, T ; Miller, TR ; Mini, GK ; Mirica, A ; Mirrakhimov, EM ; Moazen, B ; Mohammad, KA ; Mohammadifard, N ; Mohammed, S ; Monasta, L ; Moraga, P ; Morawska, L ; Jalu, MT ; Mousavi, SM ; Mukhopadhyay, S ; Musa, KI ; Naheed, A ; Naik, G ; Najafi, F ; Nangia, V ; Nansseu, JR ; Nayak, MSDP ; Nejjari, C ; Neupane, S ; Neupane, SP ; Ngunjiri, JW ; Cuong, TN ; Long, HN ; Trang, HN ; Ningrum, DNA ; Nirayo, YL ; Noubiap, JJ ; Ofori-Asenso, R ; Ogbo, FA ; Oh, I-H ; Oladimeji, O ; Olagunju, AT ; Olivares, PR ; Olusanya, BO ; Olusanya, JO ; Oommen, AM ; Oren, E ; Orpana, HM ; Ortega-Altamirano, DD ; Ortiz, JR ; Ota, E ; Owolabi, MO ; Oyekale, AS ; Mahesh, PA ; Pana, A ; Park, E-K ; Parry, CDH ; Parsian, H ; Patle, A ; Patton, GC ; Paudel, D ; Petzold, M ; Phillips, MR ; Pillay, JD ; Postma, MJ ; Pourmalek, F ; Prabhakaran, D ; Qorbani, M ; Radfar, A ; Rafay, A ; Rafiei, A ; Rahim, F ; Rahimi-Movaghar, A ; Rahman, M ; Rahman, MA ; Rai, RK ; Rajsic, S ; Raju, SB ; Ram, U ; Rana, SM ; Ranabhat, CL ; Rawaf, DL ; Rawaf, S ; Reiner, RC ; Reis, C ; Renzaho, AMN ; Rezai, MS ; Roever, L ; Ronfani, L ; Room, R ; Roshandel, G ; Rostami, A ; Roth, GA ; Roy, A ; Sabde, YD ; Saddik, B ; Safiri, S ; Sahebkar, A ; Saleem, Z ; Salomon, JA ; Salvi, SS ; Sanabria, J ; Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M ; Santomauro, DF ; Santos, IS ; Milicevic, MMMS ; Sarker, AR ; Sarmiento-Suarez, R ; Sarrafzadegan, N ; Sartorius, B ; Satpathy, M ; Sawhney, M ; Saxena, S ; Saylan, M ; Schaub, MP ; Schmidt, MI ; Schneider, IJC ; Schoettker, B ; Schutte, AE ; Schwendicke, F ; Sepanlou, SG ; Shaikh, MAA ; Sharif, M ; She, J ; Sheikh, A ; Shen, J ; Shiferaw, MS ; Shigematsu, M ; Shiri, R ; Shishani, K ; Shiue, I ; Shukla, SR ; Sigfusdottir, ID ; Santos Silva, DA ; Da Silva, NT ; Alves Silveira, DG ; Sinha, DNN ; Sitas, F ; Soares Filho, AM ; Soofi, M ; Sorensen, RJD ; Soriano, JB ; Sreeramareddy, CT ; Steckling, N ; Stein, DJ ; Sufiyan, MB ; Sur, PJ ; Sykes, BL ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Tabuchi, T ; Tavakkoli, M ; Tehrani-Banihashemi, A ; Tekle, MG ; Thapa, S ; Thomas, N ; Topor-Madry, R ; Topouzis, F ; Tran, BX ; Troeger, CE ; Truelsen, TC ; Tsilimparis, N ; Tyrovolas, S ; Ukwaja, KN ; Ullah, I ; Uthman, OA ; Valdez, PR ; Van Boven, JFM ; Vasankari, TJ ; Venketasubramanian, N ; Violante, FS ; Vladimirov, SK ; Vlassov, V ; Vollset, SE ; Vos, T ; Wagnew, FWS ; Waheed, Y ; Wang, Y-P ; Weiderpass, E ; Weldegebreal, F ; Weldegwergs, KG ; Werdecker, A ; Westerman, R ; Whiteford, HA ; Widecka, J ; Wijeratne, T ; Wyper, GMA ; Xu, G ; Yamada, T ; Yano, Y ; Ye, P ; Yimer, EM ; Yip, P ; Yirsaw, BD ; Yisma, E ; Yonemoto, N ; Yoon, S-J ; Yotebieng, M ; Younis, MZ ; Zachariah, G ; Zaidi, Z ; Zamani, M ; Zhang, X ; Zodpey, S ; Mokdad, AH ; Naghavi, M ; Murray, CJL ; Gakidou, E (ELSEVIER INC, 2018-10-01)
    BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. METHODS: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. FINDINGS: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8-8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2-4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8-13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0-2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8-9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0-1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7-1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6-1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2-33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3-22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0-0·8) standard drinks per week. INTERPRETATION: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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    Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (vol 390, pg 1423, 2017)
    Fullman, N ; Barber, RM ; Abajobir, AA ; Abate, KH ; Abbafati, C ; Abbas, KM ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abdulkader, RS ; Abdulle, AM ; Abera, SF ; Aboyans, V ; Abu-Raddad, LJ ; Abu-Rmeileh, NME ; Adedeji, IA ; Adetokunboh, O ; Afshin, A ; Agrawal, A ; Agrawal, S ; Ahmad Kiadaliri, A ; Ahmadieh, H ; Ahmed, MB ; Aichour, MTE ; Aichour, AN ; Aichour, I ; Aiyar, S ; Akinyemi, RO ; Akseer, N ; Al-Aly, Z ; Alam, K ; Alam, N ; Alasfoor, D ; Alene, KA ; Alizadeh-Navaei, R ; Alkerwi, A ; Alla, F ; Allebeck, P ; Allen, C ; Al-Raddadi, R ; Alsharif, U ; Altirkawi, KA ; Alvis-Guzman, N ; Amare, AT ; Amini, E ; Ammar, W ; Ansari, H ; Antonio, CAT ; Anwari, P ; Arora, M ; Artaman, A ; Aryal, KK ; Asayesh, H ; Asgedom, SW ; Assadi, R ; Atey, TM ; Atre, SR ; Avila-Burgos, L ; Avokpaho, EFGA ; Awasthi, A ; Azzopardi, P ; Bacha, U ; Badawi, A ; Balakrishnan, K ; Bannick, MS ; Barac, A ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Bärnighausen, T ; Barrero, LH ; Basu, S ; Battle, KE ; Baune, BT ; Beardsley, J ; Bedi, N ; Beghi, E ; Béjot, Y ; Bell, ML ; Bennett, DA ; Bennett, JR ; Bensenor, IM ; Berhane, A ; Berhe, DF ; Bernabé, E ; Betsu, BD ; Beuran, M ; Beyene, AS ; Bhala, N ; Bhansali, A ; Bhatt, S ; Bhutta, ZA ; Bicer, BK ; Bidgoli, HH ; Bikbov, B ; Bilal, AI ; Birungi, C ; Biryukov, S ; Bizuayehu, HM ; Blosser, CD ; Boneya, DJ ; Bose, D ; Bou-Orm, IR ; Brauer, M (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2017-09-30)