Paediatrics (RCH) - Research Publications
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ItemGlobal, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2021-10-30)BACKGROUND: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). FINDINGS: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. INTERPRETATION: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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ItemGender norms and the mental health of boys and young men(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2021-08)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe physical and mental health of young people in detention: A global scoping review(UBIQUITY PRESS LTD, 2021)
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ItemTackling stigma in self-harm and suicide in the young(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2021-01)
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ItemSelf-harm in primary school-aged children: Prospective cohort study(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2020-11-30)INTRODUCTION: No prospective studies have examined the prevalence, antecedents or concurrent characteristics associated with self-harm in non-treatment-seeking primary school-aged children. METHODS: In this cohort study from Melbourne, Australia we assessed 1239 children annually from age 8-9 years (wave 1) to 11-12 years (wave 4) on a range of health, social, educational and family measures. Past-year self-harm was assessed at wave 4. We estimated the prevalence of self-harm and used multivariable logistic regression to examine associations with concurrent and antecedent factors. RESULTS: 28 participants (3% of the 1059 with self-harm data; 18 girls [3%], 10 boys [2%]) reported self-harm at age 11-12 years. Antecedent (waves 1-3) predictors of self-harm were: persistent symptoms of depression (sex-age-socioeconomic status adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 7.8; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.6 to 24) or anxiety (aOR: 5.1; 95%CI 2.1 to 12), frequent bullying victimisation (aOR: 24.6; 95%CI 3.8 to 158), and recent alcohol consumption (aOR: 2.9; 95%CI 1.2 to 7.1). Concurrent (wave 4) associations with self-harm were: having few friends (aOR: 8.7; 95%CI 3.2 to 24), poor emotional control (aOR: 4.2; 95%CI 1.9 to 9.6), antisocial behaviour (theft-aOR: 3.1; 95%CI 1.2 to 7.9; carrying a weapon-aOR: 6.9; 95%CI 3.1 to 15), and being in mid-puberty (aOR: 6.5; 95%CI 1.5 to 28) or late/post-puberty (aOR: 14.4; 95%CI 2.9 to 70). CONCLUSIONS: The focus of intervention efforts aimed at preventing and reducing adolescent self-harm should extend to primary school-aged children, with a focus on mental health and peer relationships during the pubertal transition.
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ItemAdolescent and young adult homelessness during the COVID-19 pandemic: Reflections and opportunities for multi-sectoral responses(Council to Homeless Persons, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified national attention to homelessness over the course of 2020 because of concern about the spread of the novel coronavirus amongst homeless persons. It has also produced compelling reasons to look more closely at the long-neglected area of homelessness policy, and created opportunities to reverse years of inattention. Homelessness disproportionately affects adolescents and young adults, with rates rising before the pandemic. Recent homelessness funding increases and housing policy responses have also addressed health and social needs, and are continuing for the time being, however the risk of the virus is likely to remain for some time. Although Victoria has now successfully suppressed a second wave of infection in the community, the risk of a third wave is ever-present. As temporary homelessness funding and housing policy responses are scaled back, we may see a delayed ‘wave’ of adolescent and young adult homelessness, compounded by the multiple economic and social impacts of the pandemic, and associated state-wide lockdown. Preventing this ‘wave’ requires immediate evidence-based multi-sectoral action.
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ItemEstimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2020-10-01)BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
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ItemThe Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (VIHCS): Study design of a preconception cohort from parent adolescence to offspring childhood(WILEY, 2020-01)BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that parental determinants of offspring early life development begin well before pregnancy. OBJECTIVES: We established the Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (VIHCS) to examine the contributions of parental mental health, substance use, and socio-economic characteristics before pregnancy to child emotional, physical, social, and cognitive development. POPULATION: Men and women were recruited from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort (VAHCS), an existing cohort study beginning in 1992 that assessed a representative sample of 1943 secondary school students in Victoria, Australia, repeatedly from adolescence (wave 1, mean age 14 years) to adulthood (wave 10, mean age 35 years). METHODS: Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort participants with children born between 2006 and 2013 were recruited to VIHCS and invited to participate during trimester three, at 2 months postpartum, and 1 year postpartum. Parental mental health, substance use and socio-economic characteristics were assessed repeatedly throughout; infant characteristics were assessed postnatally and in infancy. Data will be supplemented by linkage to routine datasets. A further follow-up is underway as children reach 8 years of age. PRELIMINARY RESULTS: Of the 1307 infants born to VAHCS participants between 2006 and 2013, 1030 were recruited to VIHCS. At VIHCS study entry, 18% of recruited parents had preconception common mental disorder in adolescence and young adulthood, 18% smoked daily in adolescence and young adulthood, and 6% had not completed high school. Half of VIHCS infants were female (48%), 4% were from multiple births, and 7% were preterm (<37 weeks' gestation). CONCLUSIONS: Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study is a prospective cohort of 1030 children with up to nine waves of preconception parental data and three waves of perinatal parental and infant data. These will allow examination of continuities of parental health and health risks from the decades before pregnancy to offspring childhood, and the contributions of exposures before pregnancy to offspring outcomes in childhood.
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ItemThe health of adolescents in detention: a global scoping review(Elsevier, 2020)Adolescents detained within the criminal justice system are affected by complex health problems, health-risk behaviours, and high rates of premature death. We did a global synthesis of the evidence regarding the health of this population. We searched Embase, PsycINFO, Education Resources Information Center, PubMed, Web of Science, CINCH, Global Health, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Campbell Library, the National Criminal Justice Reference System Abstract database, and Google Scholar for peer-reviewed journal articles, including reviews, that reported the prevalence of at least one health outcome (physical, mental, sexual, infectious, and neurocognitive) in adolescents (aged <20 years) in detention, and were published between Jan 1, 1980, and June 30, 2018. The reference lists of published review articles were scrutinised for additional relevant publications. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, and three reviewed full texts of relevant articles. The protocol for this Review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016041392). 245 articles (204 primary research articles and 41 reviews) were included, with most primary research (183 [90%]) done in high-income countries. A high lifetime prevalence of health problems, risks, and conditions was reported in detained adolescents, including mental disorders (0–95%), substance use disorders (22–96%), selfharm (12–65%), neurodevelopmental disabilities (2–47%), infectious diseases (0–34%), and sexual and reproductive conditions (pregnant by age 19 years 20–37%; abnormal cervical screening test result 16%). Various physical and mental health problems and health-risk behaviours are more common among adolescents in detention than among their peers who have not been detained. As the social and structural drivers of poor health overlap somewhat with factors associated with exposure to the criminal justice system, strategies to address these factors could help to reduce both rates of adolescent detention and adolescent health inequalities. Improving the detection of mental and physical disorders, providing appropriate interventions during detention, and optimising transitional health care after release from detention could improve the health outcomes of these vulnerable young people.
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ItemBurden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2020-10)BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.