http://hdl.handle.net/11343/159 2020-01-21T11:02:35Z http://hdl.handle.net/11343/233893 Pertanian, Ketahanan Pangan dan Perubahan Iklim (Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change) Reuter, T; Dariah, A Climate change poses a serious threat to agricultural production and food security in Indonesia. This threat arrives at a time when global, regional and national food security are already subject to other adverse trends, creating the potential for a perfect storm. In this chapter we look at existing challenges and the additional impact climate change will have. We then examine how the sector contributes to GHG emissions, how it could mitigate climate change by reducing its own emissions, and even help absorb some emissions from other sectors. Mitigation, however, will not be enough. The 21st century is very likely to witness 2-3C of global warming, even if all pledges to the Paris Agreement were honoured. We therefore also outline an adaptation strategy to make Indonesia’s agriculture more resilient and its food supply more secure. We conclude with a concise list of recommendations to policy makers. 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11343/233892 German Cultural Diplomacy in Indonesia: Building Cooperation in a Changing World Reuter, T This study examines how Germany is engaged in Indonesia through its cultural diplomacy‐oriented institutions in the elds of education, science, culture and media. While the focus is on current activities, the history and likely future trends of the bilateral relation‐ ship are also explored. 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11343/233891 Regaining Lost Ground: A Social Movement for Sustainable Food Systems in Java, Indonesia Reuter, T; Macrae, G 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11343/233889 A Bayesian analysis of climate change risks for the Japanese pulp and paper industry Hirai, Tomoko The business sector is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in Japan, and it has faced various physical impacts caused by climate change. However, the knowledge of how the business sector in Japan should react to climate change risks and impacts is still limited. With regard to the significant values of the pulp and paper industry, this study aimed to identify the key challenges for the Japanese pulp and paper industry to adapt climate change risks. The review on academic literature revealed the major physical climate risks in Japan: intensive rainfall-related risks; drought risks; and extreme heat risks. Using the result of the literature review, a conceptual model was developed which describes cause and effect between climate change events and a pulp and paper manufacturer. Finally, the conceptual model was quantified as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to explore the probability of risks to manufacturing and business continuity under various scenarios. To evaluate uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis was implemented to test the model and examine the influence of each variable to the key endpoints in the BBN, and best-case, worst-case and most-likely case models were developed based on the findings. The impacts of climate change on hypothetical companies were then explored using these three models. The result of the sensitivity analysis showed strong influences of ‘Drought’, ‘Suppliers risk’, ‘Financial resource’ and ‘Backup facilities’ compared with ‘Extreme rainfalls’ and ‘Extreme heat’. Similarly, two main points were obtained from the results of case studies: (1) Greater risks to a plant in West Japan than East and North Japan region; and (2) Greater risks to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) without sufficient adaptive capacities. Through running the BBN, three main implications were highlighted: (1) The importance of recognising drought risks and preparing for the risk; (2) Possible relocations of pulp and paper plants from West Japan to other areas; and (3) Challenges for SMEs to obtain financial resources for mitigating the risks to manufacturing and gaining resilience. © 2018 Tomoko Hirai 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z