Doherty Institute - Research Publications
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Now showing items 1-10 of 67
Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies
(ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2017-06-01)
Early estimation of the probable impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak can assist public health authorities to ensure that response measures are proportionate to the scale of the threat. Recently, frameworks based on ...
Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration
(WILEY, 2018-02-01)
OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many weeks in advance, but there is no documented evaluation of how such forecasts might support the day-to-day operations of ...
Influence of Contact Definitions in Assessment of the Relative Importance of Social Settings in Disease Transmission Risk
(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2012-02-16)
BACKGROUND: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of ...
Understanding mortality in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales
(WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2011-03-01)
BACKGROUND: The causes of recurrent waves in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic are not fully understood. OBJECTIVES: To identify the risk factors for influenza onset, spread and mortality in waves 1, 2 and 3 (summer, autumn ...
Estimating the Fitness Advantage Conferred by Permissive Neuraminidase Mutations in Recent Oseltamivir-Resistant A(H1N1) pdm09 Influenza Viruses
(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2014-04-01)
Oseltamivir is relied upon worldwide as the drug of choice for the treatment of human influenza infection. Surveillance for oseltamivir resistance is routinely performed to ensure the ongoing efficacy of oseltamivir against ...
A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity
(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2007-11-28)
BACKGROUND: The clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult ...
Understanding influenza transmission, immunity and pandemic threats
(WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2009-07-01)
The current pandemic threat can be best understood within an ecological framework that takes account of the history of past pandemics caused by influenza A, the relationships between pandemic and seasonal spread of influenza ...
Social encounter profiles of greater Melbourne residents, by location - a telephone survey
(BIOMED CENTRAL LTD, 2015-11-02)
BACKGROUND: Models of infectious disease increasingly seek to incorporate heterogeneity of social interactions to more accurately characterise disease spread. We measured attributes of social encounters in two areas of ...
Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
(WILEY, 2007-03-01)
The panzootic of H5N1 influenza in birds has raised concerns that the virus will mutate to spread more readily in people, leading to a human pandemic. Mathematical models have been used to interpret past pandemics and ...
Predictors and incidence of sexually transmitted Hepatitis C virus infection in HIV positive men who have sex with men
(BIOMED CENTRAL LTD, 2017-03-02)
BACKGROUND: Sexual transmission of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in men who have sex with men (MSM) and its interaction with HIV status, sexually transmitted infections and sexual behaviour is poorly understood. We assessed the ...
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