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    Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism

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    Author
    Burfurd, I; Wilkening, T
    Date
    2018-07-01
    Source Title
    JOURNAL OF THE ECONOMIC SCIENCE ASSOCIATION-JESA
    Publisher
    SPRINGER
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Wilkening, Tom; Burfurd, Ingrid
    Affiliation
    Economics
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Burfurd, I. & Wilkening, T. (2018). Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism. JOURNAL OF THE ECONOMIC SCIENCE ASSOCIATION-JESA, 4 (1), pp.15-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40881-018-0046-5.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/214666
    DOI
    10.1007/s40881-018-0046-5
    Abstract
    We compare different implementations of the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (SBDM) belief elicitation mechanism, which is theoretically elegant but challenging to implement. In a first experiment, we compare three common formats of the mechanism in terms of speed and data quality. We find that all formats yield reports with similar levels of accuracy and precision, but that the instructions and reporting format adapted from Hao and Houser (J Risk Uncertain 44(2):161–180 2012) is significantly faster to implement. We use this format in a second experiment in which we vary the delivery method and quiz procedure. Dropping the pre-experiment quiz significantly compromises the accuracy of subject’s reports and leads to a dramatic spike in boundary reports. However, switching between electronic and paper-based instructions and quizzes does not affect the accuracy or precision of subjects’ reports.

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