Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorThompson, RN
dc.contributor.authorHollingsworth, TD
dc.contributor.authorIsham, V
dc.contributor.authorArribas-Bel, D
dc.contributor.authorAshby, B
dc.contributor.authorBritton, T
dc.contributor.authorChallenor, P
dc.contributor.authorChappell, LHK
dc.contributor.authorClapham, H
dc.contributor.authorCunniffe, NJ
dc.contributor.authorDawid, AP
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, CA
dc.contributor.authorEggo, RM
dc.contributor.authorFunk, S
dc.contributor.authorGilbert, N
dc.contributor.authorGlendinning, P
dc.contributor.authorGog, JR
dc.contributor.authorHart, WS
dc.contributor.authorHeesterbeek, H
dc.contributor.authorHouse, T
dc.contributor.authorKeeling, M
dc.contributor.authorKiss, IZ
dc.contributor.authorKretzschmar, ME
dc.contributor.authorLloyd, AL
dc.contributor.authorMcBryde, ES
dc.contributor.authorMcCaw, JM
dc.contributor.authorMcKinley, TJ
dc.contributor.authorMiller, JC
dc.contributor.authorMorris, M
dc.contributor.authorO'Neill, PD
dc.contributor.authorParag, K
dc.contributor.authorPearson, CAB
dc.contributor.authorPellis, L
dc.contributor.authorPulliam, JRC
dc.contributor.authorRoss, J
dc.contributor.authorTomba, GS
dc.contributor.authorSilverman, BW
dc.contributor.authorStruchiner, CJ
dc.contributor.authorTildesley, MJ
dc.contributor.authorTrapman, P
dc.contributor.authorWebb, CR
dc.contributor.authorMollison, D
dc.contributor.authorRestif, O
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-17T03:32:18Z
dc.date.available2020-11-17T03:32:18Z
dc.date.issued2020-08-12
dc.identifier.citationThompson, R. N., Hollingsworth, T. D., Isham, V., Arribas-Bel, D., Ashby, B., Britton, T., Challenor, P., Chappell, L. H. K., Clapham, H., Cunniffe, N. J., Dawid, A. P., Donnelly, C. A., Eggo, R. M., Funk, S., Gilbert, N., Glendinning, P., Gog, J. R., Hart, W. S., Heesterbeek, H. ,... Restif, O. (2020). Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 287 (1932), https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405.
dc.identifier.issn0962-8452
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11343/251533
dc.description.abstractCombinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherROYAL SOC
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.titleKey questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspb.2020.1405
melbourne.affiliation.departmentSchool of Mathematics and Statistics
melbourne.affiliation.departmentMedicine (RMH)
melbourne.affiliation.facultyScience
melbourne.affiliation.facultyMedicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences
melbourne.source.titleProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
melbourne.source.volume287
melbourne.source.issue1932
dc.rights.licenseCC BY
melbourne.elementsid1462189
melbourne.contributor.authorMcCaw, James
melbourne.contributor.authorMcBryde, Emma
dc.identifier.eissn1471-2954
melbourne.accessrightsOpen Access


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record