Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages
Source TitleSpatial Demography
University of Melbourne Author/sWilson, Thomas
AffiliationMelbourne School of Population and Global Health
Document TypeJournal Article
CitationsWilson, T. (2020). Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages. Spatial demography, 8 (2), pp.175-192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-020-00062-7.
Access StatusThis item is embargoed and will be available on 2021-06-25
Model migration age schedules have proved valuable to demographers for a range of applications for over 40 years. The original Rogers-Castro curve has been extended over time to include a retirement curve, a post-retirement curve, and a student peak. With demographic analyses extending to higher age groups than in the past due to population ageing, it is important for the model schedule to faithfully reflect migration patterns at advanced ages. Recent data on internal migration in the nonagenarian and centenarian ages reveals several examples of rising then falling mobility with increasing age. This paper suggests an alternative specification of the post-retirement curve of the model schedule to reflect this pattern. The modified model migration schedule is successfully fitted to example internal migration age patterns from Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. The modified schedule should prove useful in preparing input data for population projections and analyses of migration age patterns extending to the highest ages.
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