Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages
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Author
Wilson, TDate
2020-06-25Source Title
Spatial DemographyPublisher
SpringerUniversity of Melbourne Author/s
Wilson, ThomasAffiliation
Melbourne School of Population and Global HealthMetadata
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Journal ArticleCitations
Wilson, T. (2020). Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages. Spatial demography, 8 (2), pp.175-192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-020-00062-7.Access Status
This item is embargoed and will be available on 2021-06-25Abstract
Model migration age schedules have proved valuable to demographers for a range of applications for over 40 years. The original Rogers-Castro curve has been extended over time to include a retirement curve, a post-retirement curve, and a student peak. With demographic analyses extending to higher age groups than in the past due to population ageing, it is important for the model schedule to faithfully reflect migration patterns at advanced ages. Recent data on internal migration in the nonagenarian and centenarian ages reveals several examples of rising then falling mobility with increasing age. This paper suggests an alternative specification of the post-retirement curve of the model schedule to reflect this pattern. The modified model migration schedule is successfully fitted to example internal migration age patterns from Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. The modified schedule should prove useful in preparing input data for population projections and analyses of migration age patterns extending to the highest ages.
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