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dc.contributor.authorZhang, L
dc.contributor.authorTao, Y
dc.contributor.authorWang, J
dc.contributor.authorOng, JJ
dc.contributor.authorTang, W
dc.contributor.authorZou, M
dc.contributor.authorBai, L
dc.contributor.authorDing, M
dc.contributor.authorShen, M
dc.contributor.authorZhuang, G
dc.contributor.authorFairley, CK
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-27T00:22:01Z
dc.date.available2020-11-27T00:22:01Z
dc.date.issued2020-08-01
dc.identifierpii: S1201-9712(20)30429-X
dc.identifier.citationZhang, L., Tao, Y., Wang, J., Ong, J. J., Tang, W., Zou, M., Bai, L., Ding, M., Shen, M., Zhuang, G. & Fairley, C. K. (2020). Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 97, pp.219-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122.
dc.identifier.issn1201-9712
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11343/252437
dc.description.abstractOBJECTIVES: The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude. METHODS: We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude. RESULTS: We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6-6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3-7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2-1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size. CONCLUSIONS: Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherELSEVIER SCI LTD
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.titleEarly characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122
melbourne.affiliation.departmentUniversity General
melbourne.affiliation.departmentMedical Education
melbourne.source.titleInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases
melbourne.source.volume97
melbourne.source.pages219-224
dc.rights.licensecc-by-nc-nd
melbourne.elementsid1452035
melbourne.contributor.authorOng, Jason
melbourne.contributor.authorFairley, Christopher
dc.identifier.eissn1878-3511
melbourne.accessrightsOpen Access


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