dc.contributor.author | Zhang, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Tao, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Ong, JJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Tang, W | |
dc.contributor.author | Zou, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Bai, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Ding, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Shen, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhuang, G | |
dc.contributor.author | Fairley, CK | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-11-27T00:22:01Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-11-27T00:22:01Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-08-01 | |
dc.identifier | pii: S1201-9712(20)30429-X | |
dc.identifier.citation | Zhang, L., Tao, Y., Wang, J., Ong, J. J., Tang, W., Zou, M., Bai, L., Ding, M., Shen, M., Zhuang, G. & Fairley, C. K. (2020). Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 97, pp.219-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1201-9712 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11343/252437 | |
dc.description.abstract | OBJECTIVES: The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude. METHODS: We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude. RESULTS: We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6-6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3-7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2-1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size. CONCLUSIONS: Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic. | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.publisher | ELSEVIER SCI LTD | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 | |
dc.title | Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122 | |
melbourne.affiliation.department | University General | |
melbourne.affiliation.department | Medical Education | |
melbourne.source.title | International Journal of Infectious Diseases | |
melbourne.source.volume | 97 | |
melbourne.source.pages | 219-224 | |
dc.rights.license | cc-by-nc-nd | |
melbourne.elementsid | 1452035 | |
melbourne.contributor.author | Ong, Jason | |
melbourne.contributor.author | Fairley, Christopher | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1878-3511 | |
melbourne.accessrights | Open Access | |