University Library
  • Login
A gateway to Melbourne's research publications
Minerva Access is the University's Institutional Repository. It aims to collect, preserve, and showcase the intellectual output of staff and students of the University of Melbourne for a global audience.
View Item 
  • Minerva Access
  • Science
  • School of Earth Sciences
  • School of Earth Sciences - Research Publications
  • View Item
  • Minerva Access
  • Science
  • School of Earth Sciences
  • School of Earth Sciences - Research Publications
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

    Thumbnail
    Download
    Published version (23.10Mb)

    Citations
    Scopus
    Altmetric
    3
    Author
    Brown, JR; Brierley, CM; An, S-I; Guarino, M-V; Stevenson, S; Williams, CJR; Zhang, Q; Zhao, A; Abe-Ouchi, A; Braconnot, P; ...
    Date
    2020-09-28
    Source Title
    Climate of the Past
    Publisher
    COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Brown, Josephine
    Affiliation
    School of Earth Sciences
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Brown, J. R., Brierley, C. M., An, S. -I., Guarino, M. -V., Stevenson, S., Williams, C. J. R., Zhang, Q., Zhao, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Brady, E. C., Chandan, D., D'Agostino, R., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., O'ishi, R. ,... Zheng, W. (2020). Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models. CLIMATE OF THE PAST, 16 (5), pp.1777-1805. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/252617
    DOI
    10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020
    Abstract
    <jats:p>Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments. </jats:p>

    Export Reference in RIS Format     

    Endnote

    • Click on "Export Reference in RIS Format" and choose "open with... Endnote".

    Refworks

    • Click on "Export Reference in RIS Format". Login to Refworks, go to References => Import References


    Collections
    • Minerva Elements Records [45770]
    • School of Earth Sciences - Research Publications [416]
    Minerva AccessDepositing Your Work (for University of Melbourne Staff and Students)NewsFAQs

    BrowseCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects
    My AccountLoginRegister
    StatisticsMost Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors