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    Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

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    Author
    Fowler, Z; Moeller, E; Roa, L; Castaneda-Alcantara, ID; Uribe-Leitz, T; Meara, JG; Cervantes-Trejo, A
    Date
    2020-11-09
    Source Title
    PLoS One
    Publisher
    PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Meara, John
    Affiliation
    Paediatrics (RCH)
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Fowler, Z., Moeller, E., Roa, L., Castaneda-Alcantara, I. D., Uribe-Leitz, T., Meara, J. G. & Cervantes-Trejo, A. (2020). Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. PLOS ONE, 15 (11), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241954.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/252999
    DOI
    10.1371/journal.pone.0241954
    Open Access at PMC
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7652345
    Abstract
    Evidence-based models may assist Mexican government officials and health authorities in determining the safest plans to respond to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the most-affected region of the country, the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. This study aims to present the potential impacts of COVID-19 in this region and to model possible benefits of mitigation efforts. The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics was used to estimate the probable evolution of COVID-19 in three scenarios: (i) no social distancing, (ii) social distancing in place at 50% effectiveness, and (iii) social distancing in place at 60% effectiveness. Projections of the number of inpatient hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and patients requiring ventilators were made for each scenario. Using the model described, it was predicted that peak case volume at 0% mitigation was to occur on April 30, 2020 at 11,553,566 infected individuals. Peak case volume at 50% mitigation was predicted to occur on June 1, 2020 with 5,970,093 infected individuals and on June 21, 2020 for 60% mitigation with 4,128,574 infected individuals. Occupancy rates in hospitals during peak periods at 0%, 50%, and 60% mitigation would be 875.9%, 322.8%, and 203.5%, respectively, when all inpatient beds are included. Under these scenarios, peak daily hospital admissions would be 40,438, 13,820, and 8,650. Additionally, 60% mitigation would result in a decrease in peak intensive care beds from 94,706 to 23,116 beds and a decrease in peak ventilator need from 67,889 to 17,087 units. Mitigating the spread of COVID-19 through social distancing could have a dramatic impact on reducing the number of infected people and minimize hospital overcrowding. These evidence-based models may enable careful resource utilization and encourage targeted public health responses.

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