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    Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

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    Author
    Chang, SL; Harding, N; Zachreson, C; Cliff, OM; Prokopenko, M
    Date
    2020-11-11
    Source Title
    Nature Communications
    Publisher
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Zachreson, Cameron
    Affiliation
    Computing and Information Systems
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Chang, S. L., Harding, N., Zachreson, C., Cliff, O. M. & Prokopenko, M. (2020). Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.. Nat Commun, 11 (1), pp.5710-. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/253040
    DOI
    10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6
    Open Access at PMC
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7659014
    Abstract
    There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13-14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

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