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    Health and Economic Costs of Early, Delayed and No Suppression of COVID-19: The Case of Australia

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    Author
    Kompas, T; Grafton, Q; Che, TN; Chu, L; Camac, J
    Date
    2020-06-23
    Publisher
    Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Kompas, Thomas; Camac, James
    Affiliation
    School of BioSciences
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Kompas, T., Grafton, Q., Che, T. N., Chu, L. & Camac, J. (2020). Health and Economic Costs of Early, Delayed and No Suppression of COVID-19: The Case of Australia. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20136549.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/253070
    DOI
    10.1101/2020.06.21.20136549
    Abstract
    We compare the health and economic costs of early (actual), delayed and no suppression of COVID 19 infections in 2020 in Australia. Using a fit for purpose compartment model that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (AVSL), we find: (1) the economic costs of no suppression are multiples more than for early suppression; (2) VSLY welfare losses of fatalities equivalent to GDP losses mean that for early suppression to not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australians prefer more than 12,500 to 30,000 deaths to the economy costs of early suppression, depending on the fatality rate; and (3) early rather than delayed suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs. We conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a go early, go hard strategy to suppress COVID 19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.

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