Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorMatz, MV
dc.contributor.authorTreml, EA
dc.contributor.authorAglyamova, GV
dc.contributor.authorBay, LK
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-10T01:30:58Z
dc.date.available2020-12-10T01:30:58Z
dc.date.issued2018-04-01
dc.identifierpii: PGENETICS-D-17-01465
dc.identifier.citationMatz, M. V., Treml, E. A., Aglyamova, G. V. & Bay, L. K. (2018). Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral. PLOS GENETICS, 14 (4), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220.
dc.identifier.issn1553-7404
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11343/253725
dc.description.abstractCan genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Genomics-derived migration rates were high (0.1-1% of immigrants per generation across half the latitudinal range of the GBR) and closely matched the biophysical model of larval dispersal. Both genetic and biophysical models indicated the prevalence of southward migration along the GBR that would facilitate the spread of heat-tolerant alleles to higher latitudes as the climate warms. We developed an individual-based metapopulation model of polygenic adaptation and parameterized it with population sizes and migration rates derived from the genomic analysis. We find that high migration rates do not disrupt local thermal adaptation, and that the resulting standing genetic variation should be sufficient to fuel rapid region-wide adaptation of A. millepora populations to gradual warming over the next 20-50 coral generations (100-250 years). Further adaptation based on novel mutations might also be possible, but this depends on the currently unknown genetic parameters underlying coral thermal tolerance and the rate of warming realized. Despite this capacity for adaptation, our model predicts that coral populations would become increasingly sensitive to random thermal fluctuations such as ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well with the recent increase in frequency of catastrophic coral bleaching events.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherPUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
dc.titlePotential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220
melbourne.affiliation.departmentSchool of BioSciences
melbourne.source.titlePLoS Genetics
melbourne.source.volume14
melbourne.source.issue4
dc.rights.licenseCC BY
melbourne.elementsid1325853
melbourne.contributor.authorTreml, Eric
dc.identifier.eissn1553-7404
melbourne.accessrightsOpen Access


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record