Population ageing and the labour force: 2000-2015 and 2015-2030

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of variations in mature age labour force participation on labour force outcomes over Australia's recent past (2000-2015) and immediate future (to 2030). METHODS: To estimate the impact of rises in mature age participation on observed labour supply, we utilise demographic decomposition techniques. To examine future labour supply (to 2030), we simulate scenarios utilising a cohort-component projection model. RESULTS: Observed increases in mature age participation between 2000 and 2015 added approximately 786 000 mature age workers to the Australian labour force. Over the proceeding 15 years (2015-2030), conservative changes to prevailing mature age participation would add 304 000 additional workers. The speed of ageing is projected to increase and labour supply growth decrease in the next 15 years relative to that observed from 2000 to 2015. CONCLUSION: To benefit from increased mature age labour force participation, the barriers to mature age participation must be addressed.