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dc.contributor.authorDegeling, K
dc.contributor.authorWong, H-L
dc.contributor.authorKoffijberg, H
dc.contributor.authorJalali, A
dc.contributor.authorShapiro, J
dc.contributor.authorKosmider, S
dc.contributor.authorWong, R
dc.contributor.authorLee, B
dc.contributor.authorBurge, M
dc.contributor.authorTie, J
dc.contributor.authorYip, D
dc.contributor.authorNott, L
dc.contributor.authorKhattak, A
dc.contributor.authorLim, S
dc.contributor.authorCaird, S
dc.contributor.authorGibbs, P
dc.contributor.authorIJzerman, M
dc.identifierpii: 10.1007/s40273-020-00951-1
dc.identifier.citationDegeling, K., Wong, H. -L., Koffijberg, H., Jalali, A., Shapiro, J., Kosmider, S., Wong, R., Lee, B., Burge, M., Tie, J., Yip, D., Nott, L., Khattak, A., Lim, S., Caird, S., Gibbs, P. & IJzerman, M. (2020). Simulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data. PHARMACOECONOMICS, 38 (11), pp.1263-1275.
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Simulation models utilizing real-world data have potential to optimize treatment sequencing strategies for specific patient subpopulations, including when conducting clinical trials is not feasible. We aimed to develop a simulation model to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival for first-line doublet chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for specific subgroups of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients based on registry data. METHODS: Data from 867 patients were used to develop two survival models and one logistic regression model that populated a discrete event simulation (DES). Discrimination and calibration were used for internal validation of these models separately and predicted and observed medians and Kaplan-Meier plots were compared for the integrated DES. Bootstrapping was performed to correct for optimism in the internal validation and to generate correlated sets of model parameters for use in a probabilistic analysis to reflect parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The survival models showed good calibration based on the regression slopes and modified Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics at 1 and 2 years, but not for short-term predictions at 0.5 years. Modified C-statistics indicated acceptable discrimination. The simulation estimated that median first-line PFS (95% confidence interval) of 219 (25%) patients could be improved from 175 days (156-199) to 269 days (246-294) if treatment would be targeted based on the highest expected PFS. CONCLUSIONS: Extensive internal validation showed that DES accurately estimated the outcomes of treatment combination strategies for specific subpopulations, with outcomes suggesting treatment could be optimized. Although results based on real-world data are informative, they cannot replace randomized trials.
dc.publisherADIS INT LTD
dc.titleSimulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data
dc.typeJournal Article
melbourne.affiliation.departmentSurgery (RMH)
melbourne.affiliation.departmentMedical Biology (W.E.H.I.)
melbourne.affiliation.departmentMelbourne School of Population and Global Health
melbourne.openaccess.statusPublished version
melbourne.contributor.authorGibbs, Peter
melbourne.contributor.authorWong, Rachel
melbourne.contributor.authorIJzerman, Maarten
melbourne.contributor.authorDegeling, Koen
melbourne.contributor.authorTie, Jeanne
melbourne.contributor.authorLee, Belinda
melbourne.contributor.authorWong, Hui-Li
melbourne.contributor.authorKOSMIDER, SUZANNE
melbourne.accessrightsAccess this item via the Open Access location

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