Validation of the IBIS breast cancer risk evaluator for women with lobular carcinoma in-situ

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Author
Lo, LL; Milne, RL; Liao, Y; Cuzick, J; Terry, MB; Phillips, K-ADate
2018-07-03Source Title
British Journal of CancerPublisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUPAffiliation
Sir Peter MacCallum Department of OncologyMelbourne School of Population and Global Health
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Journal ArticleCitations
Lo, L. L., Milne, R. L., Liao, Y., Cuzick, J., Terry, M. B. & Phillips, K. -A. (2018). Validation of the IBIS breast cancer risk evaluator for women with lobular carcinoma in-situ. BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER, 119 (1), pp.36-39. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41416-018-0120-z.Access Status
Open AccessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Management advice for women with lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is hampered by the lack of accurate personalised risk estimates for subsequent invasive breast cancer (BC). Prospective validation of the only tool that estimates individual BC risk for a woman with LCIS, the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study Risk Evaluation Tool (IBIS-RET), is lacking. METHODS: Using population-based cancer registry data for 732 women with LCIS, the calibration and discrimination accuracy of IBIS-RET Version 7.2 were assessed. RESULTS: The mean observed 10-year risk of invasive BC was 14.1% (95% CI:11.3%-17.5%). IBIS-RET overestimated invasive BC risk (p = 0.0003) and demonstrated poor discriminatory accuracy (AUC 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48 - 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should understand that IBIS-RET Version 7.2 may overestimate 10-year invasive BC risk for Australian women with LCIS. The newer IBIS-RET Version 8.0, released September 2017, includes mammographic density and may perform better, but validation is needed.
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