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    Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.

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    Author
    Gurarie, D; Karl, S; Zimmerman, PA; King, CH; St Pierre, TG; Davis, TME
    Date
    2012
    Source Title
    PLoS One
    Publisher
    Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Karl, Stephan
    Affiliation
    Medical Biology (W.E.H.I.)
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Gurarie, D., Karl, S., Zimmerman, P. A., King, C. H., St Pierre, T. G. & Davis, T. M. E. (2012). Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.. PLoS One, 7 (3), pp.e34040-. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0034040.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/255982
    DOI
    10.1371/journal.pone.0034040
    Open Access at PMC
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3314696
    Abstract
    BACKGROUND: Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

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