Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014.

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Author
Evans, RJ; Mammadov, MDate
2014Source Title
F1000ResearchPublisher
F1000 Research LtdUniversity of Melbourne Author/s
Evans, RobinAffiliation
Electrical and Electronic EngineeringMetadata
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Journal ArticleCitations
Evans, R. J. & Mammadov, M. (2014). Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014.. F1000Res, 3, pp.319-. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.5941.2.Access Status
Open AccessOpen Access at PMC
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4722695Abstract
This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.
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