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    Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014.

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    Author
    Evans, RJ; Mammadov, M
    Date
    2014
    Source Title
    F1000Research
    Publisher
    F1000 Research Ltd
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Evans, Robin
    Affiliation
    Electrical and Electronic Engineering
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Evans, R. J. & Mammadov, M. (2014). Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014.. F1000Res, 3, pp.319-. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.5941.2.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/256398
    DOI
    10.12688/f1000research.5941.2
    Open Access at PMC
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4722695
    Abstract
    This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.

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