Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorLi, Y
dc.contributor.authorZeng, X
dc.contributor.authorLiu, J
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Y
dc.contributor.authorLiu, S
dc.contributor.authorYin, P
dc.contributor.authorQi, J
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Z
dc.contributor.authorYu, S
dc.contributor.authorHu, Y
dc.contributor.authorHe, G
dc.contributor.authorLopez, AD
dc.contributor.authorGao, GF
dc.contributor.authorWang, L
dc.contributor.authorZhou, M
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-21T01:19:04Z
dc.date.available2020-12-21T01:19:04Z
dc.date.issued2017-07-11
dc.identifierpii: 10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5
dc.identifier.citationLi, Y., Zeng, X., Liu, J., Liu, Y., Liu, S., Yin, P., Qi, J., Zhao, Z., Yu, S., Hu, Y., He, G., Lopez, A. D., Gao, G. F., Wang, L. & Zhou, M. (2017). Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?. BMC MEDICINE, 15 (1), https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5.
dc.identifier.issn1741-7015
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11343/256458
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: The United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios. METHODS: We used China results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 as empirical data for projections. Deaths between 1990 and 2013 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and other NCDs were extracted, along with population numbers. We disaggregated deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol, physical inactivity, and high fasting glucose. Risk factor exposure and deaths by NCD category were projected to 2030. Eight simulated scenarios were also constructed to explore how premature mortality will be affected if the World Health Organization's targets for risk factors reduction are achieved by 2030. RESULTS: If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from NCDs would increase from 3.11 million to 3.52 million, but the premature mortality rate would decrease by 13.1%. In the combined scenario in which all risk factor reduction targets are achieved, nearly one million deaths among persons 30 to 70 years old due to NCDs would be avoided, and the one-third reduction goal would be achieved for all NCDs combined. More specifically, the goal would be achieved for CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, but not for cancer and diabetes. Reduction in the prevalence of high SBP, smoking, and high BMI played an important role in achieving the goals. CONCLUSIONS: Reaching the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs is possible by 2030 if certain targets for risk factor intervention are reached, but more efforts are required to achieve risk factor reduction.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherBMC
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.titleCan China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5
melbourne.affiliation.departmentMelbourne School of Population and Global Health
melbourne.source.titleBMC Medicine
melbourne.source.volume15
melbourne.source.issue1
dc.rights.licenseCC BY
melbourne.elementsid1221455
melbourne.contributor.authorLopez, Alan
dc.identifier.eissn1741-7015
melbourne.accessrightsOpen Access


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record