University Library
  • Login
A gateway to Melbourne's research publications
Minerva Access is the University's Institutional Repository. It aims to collect, preserve, and showcase the intellectual output of staff and students of the University of Melbourne for a global audience.
View Item 
  • Minerva Access
  • Science
  • School of BioSciences
  • School of BioSciences - Research Publications
  • View Item
  • Minerva Access
  • Science
  • School of BioSciences
  • School of BioSciences - Research Publications
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climateinduced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami

    Thumbnail
    Download
    published version (1.975Mb)

    Citations
    Scopus
    Web of Science
    Altmetric
    5
    3
    Author
    Ofori, BY; Stow, AJ; Baumgartner, JB; Beaumont, LJ
    Date
    2017-09-05
    Source Title
    PLoS One
    Publisher
    PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Baumgartner, John
    Affiliation
    School of BioSciences
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Ofori, B. Y., Stow, A. J., Baumgartner, J. B. & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climateinduced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami. PLOS ONE, 12 (9), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184193.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/257309
    DOI
    10.1371/journal.pone.0184193
    Abstract
    The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.

    Export Reference in RIS Format     

    Endnote

    • Click on "Export Reference in RIS Format" and choose "open with... Endnote".

    Refworks

    • Click on "Export Reference in RIS Format". Login to Refworks, go to References => Import References


    Collections
    • Minerva Elements Records [52443]
    • School of BioSciences - Research Publications [1505]
    Minerva AccessDepositing Your Work (for University of Melbourne Staff and Students)NewsFAQs

    BrowseCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects
    My AccountLoginRegister
    StatisticsMost Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors