Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
AuthorAtkinson, J-A; Knowles, D; Wiggers, J; Livingston, M; Room, R; Prodan, A; McDonnell, G; O'Donnell, E; Jones, S; Haber, PS; ...
Source TitleInternational Journal of Public Health
PublisherSPRINGER BASEL AG
University of Melbourne Author/sRoom, Robin
AffiliationMelbourne School of Population and Global Health
Document TypeJournal Article
CitationsAtkinson, J. -A., Knowles, D., Wiggers, J., Livingston, M., Room, R., Prodan, A., McDonnell, G., O'Donnell, E., Jones, S., Haber, P. S., Muscatello, D., Ezard, N., Phung, N., Freebairn, L., Indig, D., Rychetnik, L., Ananthapavan, J. & Wutzke, S. (2018). Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 63 (4), pp.537-546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y.
Access StatusOpen Access
OBJECTIVES: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. METHODS: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. RESULTS: A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.
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