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    Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.

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    Author
    Mocroft, A; Lundgren, JD; Ross, M; Law, M; Reiss, P; Kirk, O; Smith, C; Wentworth, D; Neuhaus, J; Fux, CA; ...
    Date
    2015-03
    Source Title
    PLoS Medicine
    Publisher
    Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Russell, Darren
    Affiliation
    Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Mocroft, A., Lundgren, J. D., Ross, M., Law, M., Reiss, P., Kirk, O., Smith, C., Wentworth, D., Neuhaus, J., Fux, C. A., Moranne, O., Morlat, P., Johnson, M. A., Ryom, L., D:A:D study group, Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort, INSIGHT study group, SMART study group & ESPRIT study group (2015). Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.. PLoS Med, 12 (3), pp.e1001809-. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001809.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/257418
    DOI
    10.1371/journal.pmed.1001809
    Open Access at PMC
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4380415
    Abstract
    BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. CONCLUSIONS: Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.

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